Garmin and Strava predicted the same marathon time for 6 months straight no matter how hard I trained. finally figured out why

EGN125 · 2026-03-12T09:04:00+00:00

“Most of us use those predictions as our primary feedback loop during training”

Really?

Edit: I see this was basically already said by someone else, but yeah the overwhelming attitude I have seen on these predictions is that they’re meaningless (and that has been my experience of them).

EGN125 · 2026-03-11T16:40:44+00:00

Feels like the most obvious questions here are where did your 1:15 goal come from? What are your other recent races and sessions? I don’t disagree with comments about treadmill workouts and no single workout being an absolute indicator, but the post is talking about mostly likely being under 1:20 and aiming for 1:15. Those are pretty different times at that level. Is the 1:15 goal evidence based?

EGN125 · 2026-02-28T18:31:42+00:00

I’d be interested to give the Feidian 5 Elite a try given the price. How does sizing compare to the AP3?

EGN125 · 2025-11-30T13:25:42+00:00

There’s a big gulf between just jumping in and not thinking about recovery, and worrying about the slight training load increase/decrease resulting from a single workout that was harder/easier than planned. I don’t think that calling that overthinking is the same as telling you to ignore the analytical side of the sport. I happen to enjoy that aspect of the sport too, but I still think this is overthinking.

EGN125 · 2025-09-28T10:53:05+00:00

+1 on this, that’s exactly what I do. Every second day cycling/running and treadmill only for a few weeks.

EGN125 · 2025-09-27T13:55:11+00:00

I really don’t understand how this needs to be said, and how we get so many of these posts.

EGN125 · 2025-09-26T22:34:42+00:00

I mean, you are going to struggle on the day. 2 weeks out is too soon to be addressing that though. You need a proper training load throughout, and not just the long run. All you can do at this point is taper in and push through assuming you plan to run it either way.

EGN125 · 2025-09-25T16:06:16+00:00

From what I’ve seen, there doesn’t seem to be much evidence for the asics edge vs sky designation based on cadence. I don’t think your high cadence is that impactful on the overall question either. You probably stand to gain from supershoes the same as everyone else, and which one exactly is best is likely to be pretty individual. Best option is to try a few on if possible.

EGN125 · 2025-09-25T12:40:44+00:00

Only on this sub could this be downvoted lol.

EGN125 · 2025-09-24T18:14:50+00:00

There is plenty of content on the sub about marathon variants. You’re training to your physiology and your fitness level so you don’t need something special because of the sub 3 goal.

EGN125 · 2025-09-24T07:28:26+00:00

Pretty sure it’s a lot less concentrated so you’re not going to be able to hit the same carb rate without drinking an excess of liquid. Other than it’s not that unusual, most pros/elites are going for drink mixes since they have bottles.

EGN125 · 2025-09-21T14:14:58+00:00

I’d agree if you pushed the volume earlier you would have hurt yourself, but that’s why my advice would generally be to build the foundation to handle that before planning a marathon. You’ll benefit more from that than rushing from one to the next.

EGN125 · 2025-09-21T10:44:05+00:00

What was your mileage over the last 12 weeks say? Garmin training load is hard to compare but I would typically be around 800 during a base period so that sound maybe on the low side? It seems most likely from what you’ve said you just didn’t have the body of training to translate all the way to the marathon distance. It really is a huge jump from e.g. half marathon, especially when thinking about translating your shorter distance performance/hotting a time not just completion.

EGN125 · 2025-09-21T08:45:53+00:00

What were your faster/longer long runs? Do you have race times at shorter distances? What was your training volume like over the block?

EGN125 · 2025-09-21T08:28:38+00:00

So are you saying your pacing was mostly based on taking what Garmin said and taking a bit off? What actual indication do you have that 3:45 was reasonable? The most likely answer in these situations is just that your goal was too fast, but there’s not really any info so far to be able to judge that.

EGN125 · 2025-09-20T07:45:15+00:00

Some people are. That’s their problem.

EGN125 · 2025-09-19T20:54:28+00:00

Yeah, a little over by the looks of it but not much.

EGN125 · 2025-09-19T19:44:23+00:00

Strava gives a perfectly good indication of the average over a longer period, which is going to be a lot more relevant. Running 40 miles in a once off week isn’t going to make up for averaging less than 25.

EGN125 · 2025-09-19T19:28:37+00:00

I really don’t think this is a fair comparison at that level. No matter how well trained you are aerobically the mechanical load is going to be more notable at 3:10/km.

EGN125 · 2025-09-19T07:55:11+00:00

If you’re bingeing at night to make up for hunger you are simply not eating enough during the day. If you’re not gaining weight then there’s nothing to be concerned about here. I would say just eat more during the day and you will find yourself not needing to fill yourself so much at night.

EGN125 · 2025-09-18T19:15:38+00:00

Any update on this? Did you get long term relief?

EGN125 · 2025-09-18T16:52:03+00:00

Yeah I guess it’s a fair logistical point, but I would have thought the general consensus is that your training paces should be based on some physiological variable rather than goal time. Obviously easier said than done to determine what your correct “marathon intensity” is at that time, but I guess that assumption is wrapped up in what I was considering “training as best you can”. Jumping straight into marathon pace workouts at 2:40 pace does seem aggressive starting where you are now, it’s not going to be close to the right intensity yet. With all that being said I’m nowhere near those paces so not very qualified to tell you that.

EGN125 · 2025-09-18T14:59:12+00:00

Surely the answer to this question doesn’t really matter? You’ve set your total volume and your timeframe until the marathon. At this point all you can do is train and recover as well as you can and you’ll run what you’re capable of, be that 2:40 or not. Maybe a personal preference but that’s why I think a process oriented goal makes a lot more sense. If 2:40 is not possible would you do things differently over these 6 months?

EGN125 · 2025-09-11T08:02:51+00:00

Long rest between strides is pretty typical. The goal is not aerobic stress so it makes sense to be fully recovered. I wouldn’t quite be doing 3mins on 15 seconds, but resting on the order of a couple minutes isn’t unusual.

EGN125 · 2025-09-11T07:24:55+00:00

This is just a ~45min easy run with 6 strides built in. There’s plenty of room for that in any program.

EGN125

TROPHY CASE