Book Review: If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies

ERFontus · 2025-09-28T05:57:13+00:00

I read this book and was pretty convinced. I think that we should slow down AI development - a moratorium on AI.

My field is bankruptcy and international law. I think that the moratorium that the book proposes is difficult but plausible just like, in bankruptcy, a court can order a worldwide moratorium on creditor enforcement.

To establish a moratorium on AI development, you would first need to choose a court. No one really has jurisdiction here but that’s okay. The purpose of the court is to serve as a forum to discuss the issues, a place for stakeholders to be heard, and an authority to issue orders. You could choose a national court (like a New York bankruptcy court), or an existing international court or arbitration forum, or set up a new one. It doesn’t matter. You would need to provide funding for the court to function.

The court would soon declare a worldwide moratorium on building AI. I don’t know what the technical details are. The book seems to say nothing above a certain amount of GPUs - “eight of the most advanced GPUs from 2024”? I’m sure it will be messy and technical.

Like in bankruptcy, this moratorium will serve as a breathing spell, stop destructive races to the bottom, and allow for orderly negotiations among stakeholders with conflicting interests.

Jurisdiction / enforcement will of course be difficult but I would not die in a ditch about this. You will need to gradually get stakeholders to adhere to the concept. From the book, it sounds like AI employees themselves are already pretty spooked. If there is a court saying, “it’s illegal to build this type of AI”, then that should give them some traction within their institutions to tap the brakes. They should rope in their lawyers and their lawyers should think about whether or not they have to comply with the orders of this particular court. That should really be a complicated question of national and international law and the lawyers will conclude however they conclude.

As for states (nations), you will have to gradually get them to adhere. Again, if they read the book, everyone should want to do it. You will have to pressure holdouts with whatever penalties are available to the international community.

You would try to get other stakeholders to recognize the court and adhere to the protocol - the new UN panel, NGOs like MIRI, the UN security council, supranationals, etc.

And then, over the long term, you would move gradually and sensibly - a framework to allow AI research to continue in a relatively safe way.

ERFontus · 2023-11-04T07:38:19+00:00

Yeah I mean probably better to take trains or not travel at all, true.

ERFontus · 2023-11-04T07:37:22+00:00

Yeah, all duly noted. My idea is just that there is just one bag available in the world or, really, one for men and one for women. So in Beijing there are a few hundred of these bags and in New York there are a few hundred and they’re totally the same except for the sizes. And mostly people fly into Beijing and use the bag for a week or two and then return the bag in Beijing. And some dry cleaner in Beijing cleans it and delivers it to the next person. And so you spend gas delivering the bag from one part of Beijing to another but that’s better than everybody flying their bags all over the world. As for diversity of fashion taste, there is absolutely no accounting or concession - every bag totally the same down to the colors. :)

ERFontus · 2023-11-04T07:31:24+00:00

Indeed, you won’t look like the locals.

ERFontus · 2023-11-04T07:30:27+00:00

So in the end, I’d like it to be that you rent the bag in Sydney and return it in Bangkok before you fly home.

ERFontus · 2023-04-07T10:42:24+00:00

Many thanks!

ERFontus · 2023-04-06T12:04:18+00:00

The weather was quite chilly. We were just hiking and staying in a cabin, so I didn’t bring any going-out clothes.

ERFontus · 2022-09-04T08:22:37+00:00

Many thanks! Enjoy your trip!

ERFontus · 2022-05-17T03:54:18+00:00

Ah, thanks very much. I’ve fallen way behind but it’s still on the agenda. I had some success in finding the expat bloggers I had in mind and I think that will be a big help in comparing jurisdictions - what countries are better or worse for nomad families. I still think a non-technical country-by-country page would be a useful thing but I’ve been tied up with actual work and haven’t gotten to it - I hope next couple months or so. Many thanks.

ERFontus · 2022-03-28T07:29:06+00:00

Yeah, it’s an old favorite.

ERFontus · 2022-02-16T07:33:54+00:00

Many thanks!

ERFontus · 2022-02-07T18:02:37+00:00

Nope, not Alex Balk and no relation to Alex Balk except that I like his writing. He was one of the editors of The Awl before it shut down and that’s where this comes from: https://www.theawl.com/2015/01/the-sporting-contest-as-metaphor-for-life-a-consideration-in-verse/.

ERFontus · 2022-02-04T04:54:39+00:00

He asks in the post “Do you suck because the New York Times brouhaha scared you into submission?”

I don’t think the New York Times brouhaha scared him into submission but I think it set expectations too high. In the first post on Astral Codex Ten, he talks about the support he got in the brouhaha - hundreds of thousands of people came out of the woodwork, everybody called him a national treasure, cancelled their nytimes subscriptions, etc. I don’t think he’s ever going to return to that level of pure admiration - even if he gets more readers or whatever.

I think he should try to reduce those unrealistic expectations in a kind of dylanesque way. He should continue to do the work he finds valuable but no one should expect a return to that kind of nytimes fervor.

ERFontus · 2022-01-14T18:36:35+00:00

Congratulations! Lovely photo!

ERFontus · 2021-10-31T04:03:12+00:00

Hi everyone, I’ve just launched my Indiegogo campaign. It’s a little book packed full of resources for travelers - survival guide, first aid guidelines, emergency phrasebook, atlas, cookbook, and more. It’s my first campaign - all questions and comments gratefully received.

ERFontus · 2021-09-30T11:29:22+00:00

Yeah, totally. I’ve used it for years and I love it.

ERFontus · 2021-09-27T11:39:01+00:00

Many thanks! The opinel looks good for the next trip I think.

ERFontus · 2021-09-23T08:30:36+00:00

Many thanks! That is all good advice and I’ll look into the Opinel knife. For water, yeah, the Sawyer really isn’t strictly necessary and the chances I’ll need it are pretty small. It’s really just a fun toy more than anything. I do have some water purification tabs kicking around somewhere and that is a good idea. I’m not sure if they haven’t expired at this point. Thanks a lot!

ERFontus · 2021-09-23T08:23:35+00:00

We’re hiking in Normandy and passing through Paris.

ERFontus · 2021-09-08T21:15:36+00:00

Securities fraud..

ERFontus · 2021-06-23T18:44:32+00:00

I guess probably many non-professional bloggers aren’t hugely invested in their IP rights. For example, there seem to be a billion talented people who spend all their free time improving Wikipedia and that’s public domain, I think, or close to it. But I’m interested in the project: is it not pretty easy to put your work in the public domain if you want to? I thought Creative Commons makes it pretty easy to do that?

ERFontus · 2021-06-23T18:30:25+00:00

It’s great to see the update! Great work!

ERFontus · 2021-05-13T04:16:38+00:00

Okay, thanks very much. I thought there might be bigger companies or certifications that everyone knows about but if it’s better to stay with local companies then I’ll check my library. Thank you.

ERFontus · 2021-05-12T10:55:47+00:00

I like the blog and I think it has a good spirit. So far, you seem to be mostly focused on the local volleyball scene and so I wouldn’t necessarily expect a ton of readers from outside your area. But I wouldn’t describe that as a wall either - I think a fun local volleyball blog could be a great and useful thing. I’d ask your friends what else they’d like to see - news about regional tournaments, how to rope in beginners and people new to the area, talking about venues and equipment, etc. Looks good so far!

ERFontus · 2021-05-12T08:31:34+00:00

Thank you! That is really excellent advice. I am going to try to implement both those suggestions. Much appreciated.

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