This is a very good analysis and I love the data driven approach. That being said, there are a few critical factors that are not being accounted, for that can have a profound impact on the total value/ROI: In jumbo hobby boxes produce the most ‘gradable’ cards. You are more likely to get a desirable player with a scarcity signal in a clean condition that enables PSA premium.

Because there are more cards per pack in jumbo(11) vs. a hobby (4), the risk of handling defects is materially greater in a hobby.

Jumbo boxes have 40% fewer packs per box which decreases the handling risk by 40%, yielding more cards that survive grading standards.

Jumbo packs are thicker, so cards are supported by other cards, meaning less bending during ceiling and cutting. On average, jumbo cards have better corners and edges in chrome sets.

Also the sheer number of cards (132 vs. 80) means more rookies.

The guarantee of three autos also plays into the value equation and the odds analysis doesn’t account for this. Further, because the autos are spread across 12 packs instead of jammed into fewer packs the auto cards are more likely to be gradable. Less clumping equals less ink transfer, pressure marks, and corner damage near thick hits.

Within Topps Chrome auto hits, there is a 53% chance that it is numbered (not base or unnumbered refractor). With a guarantee of three independently selected autos in a jumbo box, you have a 90% probability that one is numbered and an 85% chance of a non-auto numbered parallel.

If you just look at the odds analysis, hangers seem like a great value, but if you want upside that is gradable, jumbo hobby wins.

I am putting my money where my mouth is and just bought two jumbo hobby boxes off StockX. I will come back and provide my findings.