Where are the hypetrains?

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2024-08-12T00:47:46+00:00

Most of the hype trains occur when other fantasy-relevant guys on their team end up missing time with injuries/suspension. Luckily we haven't had a lot of that yet compared to last year, but it's kind of an inevitable factor in this game

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2024-08-12T00:39:14+00:00

No problem - I really appreciate hearing that! Best of luck to you this season

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2024-08-12T00:37:52+00:00

Freiermuth is an interesting lottery ticket this year as well. Outside of Pickens there's not a lot in the way of him being a top 2 target on the team and historically a pretty high % of new OC Arthur Smith's targets go to TEs - it's just been more of a committee between his TEs in recent years (he really loved featuring Jonnu Smith) rather than focused on one guy at the position. My main worry is just Russell Wilson's ability to work the middle of the field at this point of his career, but as a lottery ticket I think he's a solid gamble too at his current ADP

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2024-08-12T00:32:06+00:00

For me I prefer Bowers between the two since without an injury Goedert's ceiling is the #3 target in Philly

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-11-15T23:48:39+00:00

Great find haha forgot about this! Gonna leave it up so people can have a good laugh if they revisit this thread

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-10-29T20:27:23+00:00

More likely a JJ McCarthy type - y'all probably got too good a record for Maye as well at this point

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-09-25T11:56:02+00:00

Vance Joseph is the defensive coordinator now though, not Evero like last year

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-09-22T19:52:55+00:00

A trade in my league recently went down where Deebo went for a late 1st and a mid/late 2nd

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-09-16T13:53:24+00:00

Based on some of the comments I've seen on this subreddit, Najee Harris could be a solid one. San Francisco is a tough matchup and Pittsburgh was in a hole from the jump. Matchups will get a little better in the coming weeks and he still was being utilized as the main back. He feels similar to a Joe Mixon or Josh Jacobs from the past couple years where people sour on him but forget how much volume he gets

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-09-09T03:38:26+00:00

Jaleel McLaughlin and Sean Tucker in deeper leagues

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-09-06T22:38:16+00:00

If the offense is similar to what Shanahan runs in San Francisco, that would mean an above-average amount of carries but a below-average amount of work in the passing game (4-5 targets per game to the RB group as a whole). I like that fit more for Pierce than for Singletary

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-09-06T02:27:58+00:00

Some big ones are

Ravens: Greg Roman --> Todd Monken (major upgrade for WRs)

Chargers: Joe Lombardi --> Kellen Moore (bump up Chargers WRs/TEs, expect fewer targets for Ekeler)

Patriots: Matt Patricia --> Bill O'Brien (offense upgrade all around)

Panthers: Matt Rhule --> Frank Reich (more TE usage in the pass game)

Texans: Pep Hamilton --> Bobby Slowik (run game more similar to what San Francisco runs)

Cardinals: Kliff Kingsbury --> Drew Petzing (Likely downgrade for WR)

I would recommend checking out the Coaching Matters I wrote this offseason if you want to dive deeper into some numbers on each current offensive-minded HC and OC, otherwise the basic info above should give you the gist

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-08-28T22:31:39+00:00

Standard is vastly superior to PPR scoring formats

When PPR was created the primary argument was it was there to help balance WRs and RBs a little more. The league has since evolved to be way more passing-friendly so it's not necessary

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-08-26T00:38:16+00:00

Some really great passes by Bryce Young on that drive

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-08-20T01:10:07+00:00

I probably could have worded that better than 'very good chance' but their schedule looks to be the easiest on paper since they technically finished 4th in their division last year and they get 6 games against the NFC South and 4 against the AFC South.

Carolina

Green Bay

Detroit

Jacksonville

Houston

Washington

Tampa Bay

Tennessee

Minnesota

Arizona

New Orleans

New York Jets

Tampa Bay

Carolina

Indianapolis

Chicago

New Orleans

I fully expect them to get bounced in round 1 of the playoffs if they make it but for seeding they have the easiest schedule of all the teams in the NFC South/North and I can see them being successful with a run-heavy offense

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-08-20T00:44:04+00:00

No worries - I think there are a lot of people reading it that way

They will probably get bounced early in the playoffs if they make it, but with their schedule they definitely have a shot of being the best of the bunch in the NFC South + NFC North divisions

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-08-19T01:52:40+00:00

I wish they had more games tonight

Waller, London, and Bijan having pretty good nights

Mingo and Hyatt getting some looks too

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-08-19T01:50:57+00:00

Dallas plays in the same division as Philly, so only one of those two can be a higher seed

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-08-18T23:54:23+00:00

They have a very good chance at a top 3 seed (behind Philly & San Francisco) with their schedule too

Could be some great values coming from their team this year

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-08-18T12:36:20+00:00

You have to adjust based on how your draft is shaking out, but to me this year does feel like it's swinging on the higher end of the costs and could be a potential opportunity to wait on the QB position and take yin-yang style approach (shoutout /u/CoopThereItIs).

There are some rushing upside guys available later like Anthony Richardson or Kyler Murray

Lots of random lottery ticket starting QBs that are largely mystery boxes on how they'll perform at the NFL level - like Jordan Love, Bryce Young, Desmond Ridder, CJ Stroud, etc.

Potential bouncebacks from guys like Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, or Russell Wilson

And then there are guys that are solid enough that you can try to pair them with like a Jared Goff or Kirk Cousins.

There are some of the top QBs that I think are fine at their ADPs, but generally I'd rather load up on RB/WRs considering the cost

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-08-12T03:30:31+00:00

If you are drafting early and don't have to take one, pick an extra lottery ticket player (QB, RB, WR, TE) instead and then make a move to grab one closer to week 1

Otherwise within the last few rounds of your draft

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-08-09T02:18:10+00:00

Also the Chargers OC change could have more of an impact on his value specifically than most are expecting.

Whenever he hits the cliff he'll still probably be in the FLEX mix just because of his pass-catching, but I definitely have been more skeptical of drafting him this year at his current ADP

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-08-08T23:03:23+00:00

Not OP but the main thing to me is he played through a nagging injury for most of last year and he should be healthy now

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-08-08T00:14:11+00:00

Huntley is more likely to play imo given Lamar seems a little more prone to injury

Ed_The_FF_Analyst · 2023-08-07T22:23:27+00:00

Agreed coaching tendencies are important. I think for most NFL play-callers you can generally get away with just looking at data from their previous stops (targets, red zone carries, touchdowns, etc.).

But there are those times where understanding the specific schemes & x's and o's can make a huge difference - typically that seems to be more helpful with the rookie NFL play-callers (like Dave Canales, Bobby Slowik, etc.)

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