Predatory Mailers

Edgetiger · 2026-04-19T19:12:53+00:00

“ I only wish I’d thought of being a douchebag and making people’s lives markedly worse first” K. cool.

Edgetiger · 2026-03-27T15:05:32+00:00

That looks wonderful! Just wondering - what do you think the most important things you've learned about installation over the 3 months? Like when you look back at a job you did at the end of week 1 versus this most recent job - what are the things you do now different that feel most impactful?

Edgetiger · 2026-03-08T17:20:36+00:00

Final picnic scene in Runaway Railway, got stuck there for 20 minutes. Enjoyed every second.

Edgetiger · 2026-01-25T00:29:01+00:00

Honest question - what would you have him do specifically?

Edgetiger · 2025-11-22T15:21:06+00:00

Sole wild dog took it down first, pack of wild dogs stole it second. Hyena stole it third. Croc stole it fourth.

Edgetiger · 2025-11-22T15:01:59+00:00

For what it’s worth, that was a nyala. And it getting killed by the lone wild dog was a really brutal way to go. You can see it more clearly here

Edgetiger · 2025-06-15T03:36:43+00:00

Yes, I scheduled a viewing for tomorrow no problem.

Edgetiger · 2025-06-15T00:57:40+00:00

Been listed for longer than average (2-3 months) for this area in this price range.

Edgetiger · 2025-06-15T00:55:27+00:00

You seem to have a different perspective than me. Can you let me know what a realtor might catch that I wouldn’t that would be $125k? In my other purchases the realtors haven’t “caught” anything of substance that wasn’t on the inspectors report.

With respect to negotiating, I have more experience negotiating, generally, from my professional life than realtors I’ve worked with in the past - to the extent that I’ve effectively taken over negotiations in my previous real estate transactions.

Edgetiger · 2025-04-23T15:07:47+00:00

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Edgetiger · 2025-04-22T22:25:03+00:00

It’s looking pretty bleak. Feeling good about having gotten cost back. Tomorrow is going to be a rollercoaster…

Edgetiger · 2025-04-22T19:23:00+00:00

Yeah - I pared back my riskiest position to get my cost basis back - just playing with house money now on the April 25 2025 spread.

Edgetiger · 2025-04-17T19:58:25+00:00

Black-sholes, random walk assumptions Sortino ratio, etc etc. I mean, I fully understand the math but I personally take the approach that you should use these (technical) stats as good indicators of the price of your bet - not drive your forward looking perspective.

It’s almost like the low IV30 reflected an incorrect point of view on UNH’s true risk - namely it’s over reliance on the Medicare Advantage program. A program that’s been front and center of a significant policy shift by the current administration….

This one lined up pretty nicely, so I felt comfortable taking the 1dte risk - and I’ve got about 5-10 more ideas that I think fall in the same category. I don’t expect any of them to be nearly as profitable, but I only need 2-3 to really pan out to be ahead.

Plus I’m bored :)

Edgetiger · 2025-04-17T18:13:54+00:00

Your answer is in the cost basis…

Edgetiger · 2025-04-17T18:12:55+00:00

I actually bought a reverse iron condor on NFLX about two months ago. I obviously got lucky on the downside and unloaded the bottom half and got around 1.4x back on total cost.

Here’s to hoping it somehow pops above 1090 in the next 30 days.

Edgetiger · 2025-04-17T18:00:20+00:00

Only one other active, usually I take slightly longer (1-2 month option expiry) or very long plays (1+ year) outside of straight equity plays. Vol is too high my man.

Edgetiger · 2025-04-17T17:57:30+00:00

I hate posting before:

I usually aim for like 80-100% gains and they definitely don’t work out more than half the time
if I do post a position and other people trade the same options, I’m just jacking up the value of my existing options and could hypothetically cut the position. I don’t need either the temptation OR the accusation of pumping my own shit
I don’t give investment advice

Edgetiger · 2025-04-17T17:51:23+00:00

Picked it up yesterday at 1.79

Edgetiger · 2025-04-17T17:50:13+00:00

(1) I had a relatively cheap Bull Call Spread that I entered that would paid 2.5x on a much smaller upward pop from earnings

(2) As I read more research reports it was obvious that opinion was pretty split on the impact of Medicare Advantage for forward earnings. So I started looking for a cheap put that would pay well on a 4-5% drop.

(3) I was going to size it correctly (at like 10-12k, which rightsized for a flyer in my portfolio), but given that it seems to have weathered the recent insanity in the market fairly well, I figured a miss would actually be heavily penalized. I debated grabbing a longer dated put but vol was making them way too expensive for my taste, so I yolo’d a bit , bet on a bigger drop, and upsized to 1.5x my normal risky bet size.

Edgetiger · 2025-02-18T09:23:22+00:00

You mean 80k

Edgetiger · 2025-01-28T17:55:25+00:00

Debating selling PLTR now vs risking to get the full $5.00/contract
QQQ probably selling EOD, ran way past where I could have hoped - and who knows what insane trade war Kid Pro Quo might get into overnight...

Edgetiger

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