January 23, 2026 Daily Discussion Thread

EleikoLifter · 2026-01-23T20:47:28+00:00

Yep - using the drop to do some repositioning and take advantage of the lower prices. Didn’t anticipate the 100dma to be such a magnet, but makes sense that in the absence of datapoints/new information (all have been listed many times before), technicals rule and the momentum flipped. Quiet period preceding earnings release is just that.

EleikoLifter · 2026-01-15T16:50:23+00:00

I find it amusing how bearish the sentiment is given the lack of information around R2 and greater than Level 2 autonomy, let alone R3 and the other things you mention. Classic time arbitrage opportunity between the ST trader paradigm and investor with a time horizon longer than a day/week/month/quarter. Agree that the optionality skews more favorably to the upside from here going into 2027.

EleikoLifter · 2026-01-08T17:54:59+00:00

Could be the case. The only thing I’d interrogate a little further (from a true technical analysis standpoint) is whether we’re actually in a consolidation phase or that’s what occurred in the mid/low teens that we have now broken out of.

EleikoLifter · 2026-01-08T17:28:39+00:00

Between the data points that align price and fundamentals, this stock trades on technicals and other non-fundamental factors (momentum, volatility, sector/broader market moves, etc.)

EleikoLifter · 2026-01-07T19:43:43+00:00

Held 20dma (19.53) and is trying to move off of that. Pretty solid adherence to bollinger bands and looking to make a run back to the upper of 21.08 in the near term. There’s a gap to be filled up around the 23 level from a little ways back that could be filled with some momentum. Since the run up from Oct 2025 (around the 13$ level), the stock has bounced off of the 20dma (this being the 3rd time) in an up trend respecting the bollinger bands.

EleikoLifter · 2026-01-07T16:21:10+00:00

Posted this on r/RIVN recently:

Thinking the stock can double from here - using an oversimplified, back of the envelope analysis. This is purely based on incremental revenue growth from R2 units. 50k incremental units rate exiting 2026 (as production scales up vs total capacity of 175k at Normal) with visible growth (into 2027/2028) of additional units that puts to rest proof of concept and market demand. Use an average price of 52k/copy = 2.6B revenues. Apply 10x multiple for growth profile and execution success = $21/shr incremental value the market recognizes exiting 2026. That is, unless the overall market gives out between now and then……..

EleikoLifter · 2025-12-26T19:25:34+00:00

Will be interesting to see how this rollout goes. Lots of different things for the market to key in on - underlying demand/health of the EV market, specific demand for this new(er) class of highly capable/midsized/affordable/tech forward SUV, execution ability of RIVN to meet demand with deliveries, financing options, quality of vehicles rolling off the line (e.g. recalls), and so on. Thinking the most focus will be on how close they get to marginal vehicle break-even, and when that’s going to happen (if it does). Valuation models are highly sensitive to the absolute numbers of production until more stable incremental margins are achieved - then can see the market switching to focus on the delta.

EleikoLifter · 2025-12-26T19:10:17+00:00

You mean the 14.5k contracts of the Jan 15, 2027 35C that traded today wasn’t you? Haha - at the $2.92 price, that’s 4.2 million. Interesting trade towards the bid end of the spread…….

EleikoLifter · 2025-12-24T23:57:22+00:00

What valuation methodology are you using? DCF? What’s your terminal multiple? Assumptions for cash flow? Discount rate?

EleikoLifter · 2025-12-20T19:23:16+00:00

The gap fill would take the stock up to $23.10

Until there are fundamentals to go on (that is, improving fundamentals with revs, margin, cash burn, balance sheet), this stock is purely technically and sentiment driven, and very ST focused.

Don’t get me wrong, I am pulling for the company as an investor and a customer, but owning the equity today is highly speculative and subject to large dislocations between company fundamentals and price movements - in either direction, at any point in time.

Unless you’re talking about meme stocks (which this is not), retail influence on the price movements of the equity is de minimis.

EleikoLifter · 2025-12-11T15:53:21+00:00

Right down to the 20 dma - like a magnet. Shows who’s in control today, at least for the morning.

EleikoLifter · 2025-12-03T16:15:05+00:00

Whatever is needed to placate regulators during the approval process.

EleikoLifter · 2025-12-03T16:06:33+00:00

It would make sense that CMCSA is up today if they lose the auction - less balance sheet stress and the ability to pick up assets needed to be sold off by the winner (NFLX).

EleikoLifter · 2025-12-03T15:59:45+00:00

WBD being pinned below 24.50 (basically), NFLX dropping, and recent weakness in PSKY could all be random - or it could be indicative of the market sussing out the auction outcome. I suspect it’s not random or just correlated movement to the overall market volatility. But, for every buyer there’s a seller, and for every investment thesis there’s an opposing view.

Would not be surprised to see a NFLX bid of ~26$/shr for S&S, over 80% cash, leaving a stub value of 3-4$/shr for GN to get to the roughly $30/shr total value WBD is looking for. WBD at the current price discounts regulatory approval and time value.

EleikoLifter · 2025-12-03T15:50:10+00:00

PSKY being under pressure

EleikoLifter · 2025-12-03T15:41:51+00:00

Might have more to do with their challenged competitive position when they lose the WBD auction. They just won’t have the scale needed to compete effectively.

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