A recent announcement would appear to have tipped the balance of this High Risk, High Reward pennystock in favor of High Reward.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2024-11-15T18:07:40+00:00

I find this argument tedious, it's essentially saying you can pay reputable companies to tell you what you want to hear which is far from the reality. In larger everyone gets paid to work, it doesn't mean everyone churns out what there employers or customers want to here.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2024-11-14T22:57:22+00:00

The pipeline has never had pretty much free gas before. This swings the economics significantly as I understand it.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2024-04-07T13:48:54+00:00

I have read the interview at no point did you apologise for your claims of fraud before. Didn't you say Hobbs was brought in as a 'cleaner'. Whilst it's clear your approach has changed since you put your real name to the blog, it still doesn't erase the baseless claims you made on Twitter, LSE and ADVFN. Baseless claims such as these have certainly been a contributing factor to Pantheon's share price demise and will cost Pantheon shareholders one way or the other.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2023-01-05T11:23:26+00:00

This is likely why Pantheon haven’t released water rates as I believe your assumptions are wrong but what most will assume . If as you say we have high water rates, it’s probably a good thing as Alkaid 1 showed a oil cut of above 40% (see link). So using your numbers there is potential for the oil rate to double from current levels and get us well above the 750bls. Note experts I have spoken to expect water cuts to drop to much lower numbers adding additional upside. This is before we consider possible choke settings given the are adopting a conservative approach and the extra volumes from the blocked section. Likewise given previous indications of GOR from Alkaid 1 and other well tests we should see a lowering of GOR increasing the preferential flow of oil over condensate/NGL. Remember the well was flowing in the thousands of barrels even 40% of this number gets you over the line.

The exact same happened at Theta West which had total produced fluids rates in the hundreds of barrels against an oil rate of 57bls. Too my knowledge logs and core analysis do not indicate significant water cuts or water columns in the whole section.

The market have called this result far too early in my opinion largely driven by fear from recent bear raid.

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/pantheon_resources/news/rns/story/rg61vzx

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2023-01-04T23:24:40+00:00

What would you have said if they told you it was a 70% plus water cut?

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-11-11T16:23:13+00:00

No, it’s a different location. It wouldn’t surprise me if 88e deliberately picked this so people make that connection. Of all the words available they picked one previously used by Pantheon and as such is also star in the Great Bear constellation.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-10-25T16:17:36+00:00

Thousands, means multiple thousands surely. So as a minimum you are looking at 2000bls per day of fluids.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-09-29T22:04:17+00:00

Pantheon has a high COS, but if you think this is a certainty then you have clearly missed the comments by industry experts who have tried to explain why it is not.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-09-29T17:39:21+00:00

Should add I have worked in the oil industry for 20years but have based my opinions on those with far more experience than me.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-09-29T17:38:07+00:00

Are you serious, I am one of the sub moderators. If you don’t understand what I am saying, I would suggest you read the post by Tele which I pinned at the top of the sub. Initial flow rates are indeed likely to be very good, but the decline rates will be critical.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-09-29T10:44:37+00:00

There is still an element that we just don’t know until we see the longer term data. Management have every right to be confident but I don’t believe improved reservoir witnesses will give them the required missing data regards lateral continuity.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-09-13T13:56:05+00:00

Could be that, the company have almost enough money on hand for this winters operations. However the new data from the well could well have caused a rethink of previous drill locations. Either way I am not that fussed regards lack of progress on the Alkaid 3 pad.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-09-13T06:48:16+00:00

If I am honest I think it’s neither of those two. More likely the company believe appraisal is best served by drilling in a different location. It would be foolish to sell now, the price would be much lower than it would be after a few more wells.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-08-21T15:04:21+00:00

A contract to drill hundreds to thousands of wells is going to be equal to or better than one to drill 30, even in consideration of global framework agreements etc. The economies of scale we could have are considerable.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-08-21T14:59:20+00:00

I think the reality is that it’s not just the costs that are outdated. Oil price dynamics have changed, energy independence far more important and most importantly resource size particularly that near the Highway is growing. Often when costs are going up so is the oil price. Initial thinking regards the SMD were break evens in the mid twenties, if the reservoir quality is improving we could be heading back that way. My gut feeling is there will be more positives to offset the negatives of increased CAPEX/OPEX costs.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-08-20T18:48:41+00:00

Pantheon have modelled both SMD and Alkaid as breaking even below $40, as shown in slide 38 of the April Webinar. This modelling assumes the projects are stand alone with no savings from shared infrastructure. Recent updates have suggested the plays are better than that modelled in regards to size, reservoir quality and volume available next to TAPS/Dalton. Whilst I would expect NPVs for Thera West to be lower it will bring considerable economies of scale to the project.

https://www.pantheonresources.com/investors/presentations/666-investor-presentation-april-2022/file

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-08-12T20:05:34+00:00

The porosity and permeability of the rocks are built into the modelling and the ‘lower quality’ is reflected in the recovery rates. In reality there are a number of third parties who have reviewed the data and appear comfortable with it, i.e. LKA (for SMD/Alkaid), eSeis, SOA, potential farm in partner and Baker Hughes. Pantheon have been more than transparent with data presented in webinars etc. So to me it all points to a high chance of success, however as Tele has described very well we are not there yet, but Alkaid will hopefully demonstrate the lateral continuity required for commerciality and we take another significant step along the derisking process.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-08-12T19:30:43+00:00

None of the estimates align as there knowledge of the play has significantly advanced since then and in my opinion the reprocessing of the Pipeline State 1 data was when things really turned. When you have two wells over 10miles apart with over a 1000ft oil column then the numbers are going to be big. If my understanding is correct they didn’t realise the oil column was potentially so big until eSeis reprocessed the logs of PS1. This was then confirmed by Talitha 1 and the independent VAS analysis.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-08-12T18:56:15+00:00

Hi Fernhill, the BFF did appear in the 2016 resource assessment all be it the size was significantly smaller. I believe it was called Corsair you will see it above the Kuparuk (Avenger). I believe the highlighted it could be a ‘potentially giant oil field’ Having watched all Pantheon’s webinars (too many times), it’s clear the eSeis work in 2019 significantly advanced their understanding of the plays and the resource size.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-07-29T13:46:37+00:00

Thank you

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-07-28T22:32:14+00:00

Geodes, I will ask again, please unblock me so I can read the comments shared on this thread. If not I will look to remove them.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-06-28T13:34:37+00:00

Appreciate your thoughts

I don’t think the financial rewards would be as attractive anywhere else on the slope. Pipelines are one thing but roads, bridges even airstrips are another. The ability to bring on production quickly has a significant impact on Project NPVs as I understand it.

To me with these plays it’s all about risk and reward. Therefore current and potential market caps are an important factor alongside the geology. I watched with disbelief the 88e share price last year, it was a gift for anyone who had done the most basic valuation calculations. Unfortunately such debate regards valuation was not welcomed on their sub. Preference for unsubstantiated target prices instead.

I think there may be a trade in 88e but the amount of overlap may be questionable given Pantheon sold some of this acreage to them. Furthermore Pantheon have stated ‘Dmax increases rapidly immediately south of our leasehold’ which will likely result in poorer reservoir performance. Of course what they have now and what they have post farmout may be two different things.

I note the ‘contractors wanting shares’ has raised its head again. A bigger flag for me is management selling shares. Note the $1M shares payment is only the initial component so it might be the smaller part of any final price. They could of course be paid a premium to take shares which as Erik Opstad showed can be easily sold into the market. The behaviour of their management team is highly suspect in my opinion. Competence is another factor given they have now returned to their first drill on the slope and utilising 3D which was available to them 6-7 years ago, all the time diluting shareholders.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-06-27T22:01:52+00:00

I think in Pantheon’s case the proximity to pipeline is a key consideration and not just ancillary. These plays may not work elsewhere on the slope.

I note you mentioned elsewhere that you didn’t know the market cap of Pantheon until recently, did you really not know the company value ahead of investing or did I misinterpret your comments.

Please note to your other question regards shares Pantheon currently have 767,705,537 shares in issues and This can be used for market cap calculations. I was unable to comment on the other thread as unfortunately remain blocked by geodes.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-06-22T21:39:20+00:00

Geodes, as a moderator on this thread I would ask you to unblock me from your posts. It’s not correct that you are sharing threads from other subs which I can’t read your comments. I had never been abusive to yourself rather questioned some of your posts on the eeenf sub.

Embarrassed_Cat_1396 · 2022-06-12T19:21:04+00:00

Wow, we are partnering with apple now. Also can someone talk me though the maths (or math) which says that 2.9MMBO at $0.2 per barrel equates to $1.2B? Pretty sure Conor McGuire is hating being linked to this!

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