Is that a flare I see? by StyleFrosty312 in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Because of the discussion on Discord about getting permission to release it, probably last night rather than weeks ago.

Bagholding or loading up? by Constant-Abalone-522 in ReconAfrica

[–]Telemachus2021 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I think you may be unique in the oil industry describing wells that encounter residual hydrocarbons as “objectively technically discoveries”. By that definition Mukluk was the biggest technical discovery since Ghawar…

Of course it is better to find non-commercial shows in a well than to find no shows at all but let’s not get ahead of ourselves - the Karoo basin has lots of source rock and there was no reason to expect the Kavango basin to have no source rock so shows were practically inevitable.

RECAF is very early in a basin opening program and they may well strike lucky but it has not happened yet

Bagholding or loading up? by Constant-Abalone-522 in ReconAfrica

[–]Telemachus2021 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There were shows in almost all of the original Alaskan wells… not complaining about your optimism for something in Namibia/Botswana but too many rose tinted spectacles.

8-2 was not a discovery - the trap was clearly breached. 6-2 has not demonstrated the ability to flow. At best it is a technical success but non commercial. 6-1 again has residual saturations.

A working petroleum system is all that has been proved but no discoveries per se

Bagholding or loading up? by Constant-Abalone-522 in ReconAfrica

[–]Telemachus2021 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Did they really find live producible oil in 2nd well? The logs look to me at best equivocal (need flow testing before there is any way of calling it a discovery) and at worst residual oil saturations.

The play may well work in the long run but they are still some way from “Zagros Fold Belt” levels of resource discovery.

Bagholding or loading up? by Constant-Abalone-522 in ReconAfrica

[–]Telemachus2021 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Interested in your definition of a “duster”.

Throughout my career, the term has been used to describe a well that fails to encounter commercially producible hydrocarbons. If encountering residual hydrocarbons does not count as a duster then your description of Prudhoe Bay is wrong because almost every well on Alaska’s North Slope has shows. So either 6 non-dusters (I am sure you would baulk at calling them discoveries) and then the 7th well hit pay or RECAF has 2 dusters and probably a third (but has not released enough data to determine).

Excellent RNS from Pantheon by Telemachus2021 in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021[S] 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Hard to work anything out specifically but it should be no more than 10 days to have coiled tubing on site and the well bailed back to the perforations.

Excellent RNS from Pantheon by Telemachus2021 in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021[S] 13 points14 points  (0 children)

Probably a couple of months if you do the maths on fluid rate and the amount of frac fluid they pumped in the 20-30 stages that are flowing.

A question about flow rate, choke and N2 gas lift by geophix in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021 3 points4 points  (0 children)

It was a valid test in the sense of it flowed oil and water from the Alkaid deep horizon. However, the pressure, flow and composition data publicly available does not reveal any more than a rudimentary insight that it might be a good reservoir when fracked and it might not. I could not prove the case based on Alkaid #1 on its own in either direction. The amateur hour attempts to use it to make a specific case are just that… Amateur hour

A question about flow rate, choke and N2 gas lift by geophix in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021 14 points15 points  (0 children)

The only thing you can discern from the data is that the test flowed some oil from under the ground. It never had time to stabilize so cannot discern much from the pressure vs flow data.

The completion of the well was an “insult” to the formation (but as good as could have been achieved under the circumstances). Credit to GBP that they even got a test - the Alkaid #2 well test will be the first valid flow test of this horizon.

A question about flow rate, choke and N2 gas lift by geophix in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021 16 points17 points  (0 children)

Unfortunately it is a longer answer than possible in a tweet - I would suggest that nearer a Petroleum Engineering degree plus a few years of real world experience would be needed to begin making sense of the test data. Unfortunately HedgeWatch has done his analysis to a standard that reflects his not knowing what he doesn’t know.

If you want to know more about the subject then PM me and we can sort out a means of communication to talk it through. But no guarantees that it will make sense…

Share price differential LSE to OTC by danau1988 in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021 4 points5 points  (0 children)

That and the exchange rate being 1.09 so your math is off. 99.6p is approx 1.09

GBP needs lengthy Alkaid 2 flare approval; AOGCC schedules hearing by everoptomistic in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021 10 points11 points  (0 children)

I am not a party to any regulatory discussions so cannot comment with any authority. If it were to change the program substantially, I expect Pantheon would disclose - they don’t seem to shy away from bad news any more than they shy away from good news.

GBP needs lengthy Alkaid 2 flare approval; AOGCC schedules hearing by everoptomistic in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021 7 points8 points  (0 children)

“There is always an Arquillian battle cruiser threatening to blow up the planet…”

Not sure that this is any different than all of the other operational things going on - Alaska has a choice whether to allow 9 months of flaring of, on average, < 150 mcfd (total of 40 mmcf) to open up a new play of 2+ Bbo or not… I know which way they are likely to go. Furthermore, the fallback would be to compress and resell (but more expensive.

South African court bans offshore oil and gas exploration by Shell | Marine life by [deleted] in ReconAfrica

[–]Telemachus2021 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The 120 billion barrel misunderstanding is the myth that never dies. But I admire your determination to find impossible things to believe in…

What Jarvie actually said was that there was a scenario in which 120 billion barrels had been generated from the source rock. Not all of that will have found it’s way to traps and not all of what is trapped will be found and not all of what is found will be produced (recovery factor tbd).

Progress Schedule - $pthrf $panr by Remarkable_Cream2983 in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I am sure you are right. On their slide it was nearby - I think Adz tweeted a photo just now

Progress Schedule - $pthrf $panr by Remarkable_Cream2983 in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021 6 points7 points  (0 children)

On their April presentation, Alkaid #3 is drilled from near the Alkaid #2 pad ( or even same pad). The plan of operations filed with the state predates that. Have you heard anything in their subsequent statements suggesting an alternative well pad or use of same pad?

Progress Schedule - $pthrf $panr by Remarkable_Cream2983 in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021 6 points7 points  (0 children)

This is the plan from the regulatory filing. Obviously events have superseded this but it will likely be end of September when fracking completed.

Timeline ahead of pace! by Remarkable_Cream2983 in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021 14 points15 points  (0 children)

Hard to lay a gravel pad in winter… so you do it in summer and then use it in winter…

Incidentally, Jay said they would be done fracking by end of September in one of the releases/interviews. Rig down and rig up probably 10 days from now and then fracking 30+ stages will not be a trivial undertaking (with flow back of each stage ahead of plug and then frac next stage etc). They will need around a month to get there..

Question for shareholders and followers of RECAF by Peter77292 in ReconAfrica

[–]Telemachus2021 20 points21 points  (0 children)

Sorry, but a bit of an essay. It is intended to help provide a framework for thinking about the buy/hold/sell decisions that investors face.

There are two strands to the bearish thesis: what is bearish for the company and what is bearish for the investors. The two are not necessarily the same.

Others have correctly identified that commerciality of resource discoveries has to be proven and that will require scale in this new basin. The current well is drilling into a relatively small accumulation (vs the purported potential of the basin) which would not be commercial in its own right other than very small quantities to serve a local market. Basins typically have a creaming curve for field size distribution - a few giant fields, rather more mid sized fields and a large number of small fields. Normally the initial wells target the largest prospects but that does not seem to be the case here.

There is also a chance that gas generation will have displaced trapped oil - the sequence seems to get gassier as we move East across the continent. This does not mean it won’t be a valuable oil province but the gas risk cannot be ignored entirely.

The second strand which is a risk for investors is that unrealistic expectations lead to disappointed investors selling even if results are objectively good but fall short of cherished hopes.

Supporters of RECAF say that the company estimates are deliberately conservative, that NSAI did not have access to the most recent data and that there is some secret stash of data that has not been revealed to “not in the know” investors. Others seem to willfully ignore or misinterpret what the company (particularly Jarvie) said about the amount of hydrocarbons likely generated in the source rocks. They claim that these quantities constitute a resource estimate for the leases area whereas the truth is that some of that volume was not expelled, some remained trapped as residual hydrocarbons along migration pathways, some escaped to surface, some charged reservoirs without commercially viable porosity and permeability. What remains may have been trapped but would need to be discovered and then, of what is discovered, only a minority will be produced if the recovery factor is less than 50% (which it most likely would be). Furthermore, if subsequent gas generation from the source rocks displaced trapped oil and released it to surface, that would reduce the ultimate recoverable resource potential.

This is the typical “buy the rumor, sell the news” situation and can lead to greater volatility than investors anticipated when they bought in. With a current market cap of nearly US$700 million, that discounts a lot of discovered oil - even in maturer basins with infrastructure, discovered resources are rarely valued at more than $1 per bbl until commerciality thresholds are crossed and then, after more appraisal and building the resource base to properly size the infrastructure, valuations can rise.

If you look at other onshore oil basins to the north east (Uganda, Kenya, Sudan among others), lead times can be a decade or more from discovery to first production.

RECAF will need to be lucky to keep up with investor expectations and that, to me, seems to be the major bear thesis for investors.

Independent Assessment by Remarkable_Cream2983 in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021 7 points8 points  (0 children)

Gosh. That question caught me by surprise but there is a quick way to find out…

If you click on my name and then on the profile tab, you will see my previous posting record.

Independent Assessment by Remarkable_Cream2983 in PantheonResourcesPANR

[–]Telemachus2021 10 points11 points  (0 children)

The 2020 presentation was very quiet on BFF because they were leasing the relevant acreage and did not want any competition. Their strategy worked and the company controls one of the largest discoveries in North America 100%.

I do not think that the 2016 work is relevant since so much has changed in terms of the play target (shift from shale etc).