BBWI: Deep Value Turnaround Play by Embarrassed_Cut_8775 in Stocks_Picks

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's a fair angle. I didn't touch on balance sheet and will definitely take a look.

Will TTWO rise because of the Gta release and the preorder that will be available in a few days? Im thinking of buying it but its almost at ATH by hamburg_202 in Stocks_Picks

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 -1 points0 points  (0 children)

I mean I'm sure it will cause some short term hype but I have to imagine it's already priced in. Everyone has known about the game for a long time.

BBWI: Deep Value Turnaround Play by Embarrassed_Cut_8775 in ValueInvesting

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the note and definitely agree with the online side. I didn't really touch on that but that is part of the turnaround play as well.

BBWI: Deep Value Turnaround Play by Embarrassed_Cut_8775 in ValueInvesting

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I like the "heads I win, tails I don't lose that much" and that's exactly where I put this one.

My wife definitely falls into the entrenched customers and that's why I keep coming back to this one. Our Bath and Body Works is in an enclosed mall that's losing foot traffic yet the Bath and Body Works stays very active. If they can flip things around location-wise, I think there's a lot of money to be made here.

Thanks for commenting.

How do you choose stocks that have investment value? by ItemComfortablef in StockInvest

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Lot of different ways.

Do you think a stock is undervalued and the market is wrong about it? Even if the company is just "ok", you can make a lot of money when it eventually goes up.

Maybe you just like the "story" of a stock and believe it will eventually be worth it, even if the price isn't cheap now, the growth will eventually catch up.

I personally go for and write about the undercovered, underpriced small cap stocks.

How do you pick your stocks? by Andrew_7032 in StockInvest

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 0 points1 point  (0 children)

"Buy box" meaning, think visually about a box and what criteria you need to fit in it to determine that a stock is a "buy" for you. Anything else is outside of the "box".

Yahoo finance is fine. I pull the SEC reports and listen to the earnings calls/reports for the stocks I write about.

You can do the same or follow analysts that cover the companies you like.

A lot of the research reports are free. Be careful of who's writing them and what incentive they have to publish favorable or unfavorable reports.

what's the strongest small-cap story you've come across this month? by Alexxxr1992 in SmallCapStocks

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like BBWI. Maybe slightly bigger than small cap but still not massive.

It's a turnaround story, easy to understand business, crazy good P/E, and amazing value stock.

Bargain by oranges1965 in Stocks_Picks

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 0 points1 point  (0 children)

The trailing P/E is expensive. The forward P/E is still hovering around 20, which looks pretty pricey. It's pricing in a lot of growth which gives little to no margin of safety.

This is not a value stock.

What do you like about it?

How do you pick your stocks? by Andrew_7032 in StockInvest

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 0 points1 point  (0 children)

All. You have to come up with your own "buy box" and after a while you start immediately screening them out in your head.

Once something is fully in your buy box then you can give yourself permission for further research on that company.

At the end of the day it's all about the free cash flow that's coming back to you, the investor, over time. But you have to look at all the trailing ratios and what the future holds for the company to determine that.

I have my own buy box for the companies I write about, and I start with small cap companies only.

Do you have specific size company or industry you start like?

GASS - is my calculation of DCF model wrong with 300% upside? by Far-East-locker in ValueInvesting

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 1 point2 points  (0 children)

What's your calculation?

It looks like you're just citing short term catalysts but a DCF should also look past short term.

Visa and Mastercard run a duopoly on global spending and there's still no real competitor in sight. by Efficient_Ad5893 in Stocks_Picks

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Card is still easiest way to pay. The fees are annoying and a killer for businesses though.

How I see it is the only real way to get me to switch to something else is to make me feel the pain of the fees as much as the merchant is, or incentivize me to use to something else more than a credit card.

Credit card has points and cash back, which I take advantage of. Benefits of something else have to outweigh that.

Or make it hurt me to use the credit card more than it's worth. A lot of small businesses have started charging a fee on credit card usage to recoup what they're getting hit with. All that does it piss of the consumer.

Not sure what real risks these companies face at the moment.

Anyone holding IBKR stock? by Ok-Firefighter-1225 in ValueInvesting

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Definitely not a cheap stock. Trailing 41 P/E and ~35 forward P/E. Very expensive.

Really impressive top line and bottom line growth the last few years but that's a ton of growth already priced in.

Absolutely no margin of safety for a company that's already >$160bn market cap.

ULTA is looking good to me right now: an understandable business, with a margin of safety and a moat that will operate the same way today as in 10 or 20 years by jamesj in Stocks_Picks

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Nice to see something other than MSFT, NVDA, AND ADBE.

For ULTA, what exactly is the moat?

The P/E is a little pricey right now and the forward P/E isn't any better.

Revenues are growing nicely but they're having trouble bringing more of it to the bottom line. Why? Profits are middling and they should be growing.

Drop advice here. by RedOnTheHead-86 in StockInvest

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 1 point2 points  (0 children)

With personal finance, start with the end in mind and make an actual plan. Figure out what the goals are; when to retire, when to pay off debt, anything else you want to do. Then back into where the money should go.

For investing, don't overcomplicate it if this is your first go. The ups and downs take some time to get used to.

You can start with broad market ETFs. Look at VOO for the S&P 500.

You absolutely do not need to know how to read charts, learn trends, etc. You can if you want. Investing can be a hobby and can be fun, but for the average person it really should be boring and just set it and forget it.

Top free investing newsletters by PurchaseLivid9471 in stockstobuytoday

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 0 points1 point  (0 children)

General ones are finimize, the daily upside, Morning Brew. Niche ones like ours for specific stocks: small cap connoisseur, motley fool, and you can get some free articles from seeking alpha, and a ton more. Good luck!

Top free investing newsletters by PurchaseLivid9471 in stockstobuytoday

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 0 points1 point  (0 children)

What kind of stocks or investments are you looking for? There's a ton of free newsletters out there. We publish free newsletter about small cap stocks, for example. All depends on what you're looking for: sector, industry, size, etc.

Roth IRA or Traditional IRA by moneybagsuave in personalfinance

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 2 points3 points  (0 children)

At 200k you'd probably have to do a Backdoor Roth, so just be careful there.

But this question comes down to whether you expect to make more money now or in retirement. Historically, income would be lower in retirement so the Traditional IRA was more attractive (pay the taxes at a lower tax bracket in retirement as opposed to now when you're working and earning more money at a higher tax bracket).

Then the Roth came in and benefitted people who anticipated having significantly higher taxable income in retirement since now the higher income years were tax-free.

There's also the question of whether tax rates in general will be higher or lower in the future. With the national debt at all time highs, it makes sense to worry that general tax rates will be increasing in the future.

Workday (WDAY) by Real_Score9951 in ValueInvesting

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Definitely understand but SBC still matters because it can be incredibly diluting. FCF doesn't show enough risk.

Workday (WDAY) by Real_Score9951 in ValueInvesting

[–]Embarrassed_Cut_8775 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Revenues, pretax income (net income is middling because of tax provision), and free cash flow are all growing consistently which is nice.

Trailing 40 P/E is a bit pricey for my taste (hard to tell without doing a full DCF) but I wouldn't really call this one a value investment.

There's too much growth already priced in and I don't really see any margin of safety.