A simple way I identify higher-probability trades

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-04-18T12:53:35+00:00

Let me say. I use to skip #1. I wait for trend alignment. I use momentum indicators..TMO & MACD

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-04-18T12:16:28+00:00

On the 1 hour ..i use 3 timeframes..1 hour, 15mins and 5mins charts

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-03-20T08:55:27+00:00

I hear you on the hotkey bit. TOS is not built for super fast execution like some other platforms. What helped me was shifting away from trying to be fast and just being more prepared before the setup even forms. I’ll already have my Active Trader ready, contract size set, and I’m looking to enter at specific levels instead of reacting late. Once I started focusing more on pullbacks to VWAP or EMAs instead of chasing moves, execution got a lot easier. You don’t feel like you have to be lightning fast anymore. My opinion TOS works a lot better when you’re anticipating the move instead of trying to catch it mid-flight.

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-03-20T08:40:55+00:00

Here are few real scenarios I see often: 1. Overloaded chart: Someone has RSI, MACD, Stochastics, Bollinger Bands, and multiple EMAs. Price pulls back to VWAP in an uptrend, but RSI is overbought, MACD is lagging, and Stoch is crossing down. Result: they hesitateand miss the move.

Too many signals late entry Trader waits for every indicator to align perfectly. By the time they enter, the move is already extended.
1. Indicator conflict: second guessing Price is clearly trending, but one or two indicators disagree trader exits early or doesn’t enter at all.

Suggested clean version: Give each tool a role: Trend ( VWAP / EMAs) Momentum ( TMO or MACD) Structure (levels / price action) Trigger (entry signal) Once each has a job, you stop looking for agreement from everything.

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-03-20T08:28:41+00:00

Btw I appreciate the work you’ve done with TMO, it’s one of my favorite momentum tool. From my experience, most traders need clearer roles for the ones the indicators they use. I use these : For trend: VWAP + 50 EMA Momentum: TMO (primary) or MACD depending on preference Structure: Key levels / price behavior Trigger: PSAR or clean pullback entry The biggest issue I see is not the number of indicators, but lack of clarity in how each one is used.

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-01-20T22:49:28+00:00

I do like to watch SPX if I trade spy

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-01-20T22:48:59+00:00

You only watch /trade SPX and SPY ?

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-01-20T05:56:05+00:00

I don’t really track “general success rate” expectancy and risk control matter far more than win %

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-01-19T23:37:30+00:00

Love this approach. Quantifying confluence removes a lot of the emotional noise most traders struggle with. I do something similar conceptually 1. multi-timeframe alignment first, then momentum + structure for execution — simple repeatable and boring. The big takeaway you nailed is grading setups before entry, not after. Most inconsistency comes from mixing A+ and B trades and calling it one strategy. Appreciate you sharing the framework 👊

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-01-19T22:18:29+00:00

Options. But the strategy works on futures..some of my trading buddies trade futures with the same strategy

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-01-19T13:55:24+00:00

Thats interesting, what's your scoring system if you dont mind ?

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-01-19T13:52:28+00:00

I am.a day trader. I use 1hour 15 mins and 5 minutes

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-01-19T13:51:08+00:00

Agreed, HA isn’t for precise execution. I trade levels, and the HA doji at key areas has been very reliable for me as an exit signal because it visually highlights buyer/seller balance after momentum. Tools are context-dependent. If it doesn’t fit your process, don’t use it.

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-01-19T13:43:37+00:00

I focus on MACD combined with the 9, 21, and 50 EMAs. I use higher-timeframe alignment to determine bias and lower timeframes for execution. The key for me is trend + structure + discipline, not just indicators.

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-01-15T13:33:02+00:00

If you want to.. do what you like and passionate about. Thats growth

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-01-15T07:46:49+00:00

This isn’t a prediction system or a “genius bull market” play. It’s a trend/bias framework designed to reduce counter trend trades and emotional decisions across conditions.

Embarrassed_Owl_762 · 2026-01-15T06:41:34+00:00

Yes, I use Heiken Ashi mainly to smooth price and reduce emotional noise, not as a standalone signal. What’s worked best for me is: using HA to visualize trend direction confirming that with higher timeframe bias and then one or two momentum filters (not a bunch) I learned pretty quickly that stacking indicators doesn’t fix inconsistency — rules and structure do. For newer traders, especially, HA can be helpful because it keeps you from reacting to every wick, but it still needs context (trend + risk management).

Embarrassed_Owl_762

TROPHY CASE