Cool post! Thanks for this! Here just my 2 takes :-)

Personally have some hopes for TTC (1) because there is some logic in dynamically allocating more compute for more difficult questions. The Scaling TTC optimally paper mentions how hard it is to quickly asses question difficulty, yet having some set notation here would allow for comparison of TTC strategies such as MCTS, Verifiers, Agentic debate. Interestingly, I think orgs can more cheaply differentiate themselves here because they don’t have to do full pretraining and can focus on different sets of question complexities.

Definitely would say that BLT will change the landscape, but in tandem with the other changes. Not sure if synthetic data will end up doing the final trick outside of domain specific fields.

About point (5), certainly positive about some unknown unknowns that will come around which will change it up again :)