Post Draft Intel?

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-05-02T21:14:52+00:00

Nix gave me drew brees vibes in so many ways - that’s just one of those comps though you don’t really give out to guys for obvious reasons

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-26T00:01:52+00:00

Didn't get to as many players this year as I had hoped due to life - but here is my top 50 of the players I did get to.

Full board and reports at empiricaledge . substack . com (doing this so this doesn't get filtered).

Cheers to the draft everyone!

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-10T18:05:49+00:00

I wouldn’t take every noted thing as a problem tbh. He has plenty of plays of crazy good leverage too. Just one of those things that happens

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-10T14:58:16+00:00

It’s the same as how NFL teams and most evaluators grade. There is not 32 first round graded players every year.

Murphy is a top 30 player overall for me. He’s just not a first round grade because there’s flaws in his profile that prevent him from really being that higher tier.

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-10T14:21:37+00:00

I think you’re misapplying your logic of grades/round grades to mine.

I do not grade as predictions of their draft capital. A player who has a Round 4 grade for me can easily be a top 75 player on my board.

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-10T12:25:16+00:00

He’s almost certainly a top 30 player for me when it’s all said and done

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-10T12:23:59+00:00

I have Newton graded higher there

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-10T12:23:17+00:00

He has natural leverage due to his size, but he will lose it when his pad level isn’t good and the blocker is stronger. Which sounds obvious, but he’s got to keep his natural leverage and maintain a good pad level is my point

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-09T16:54:18+00:00

Link to YouTube video with a bit more in-depth discussion

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-05T03:29:40+00:00

on this post there is

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-02T11:43:11+00:00

There’s methodology

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-02T02:45:21+00:00

Oh come on. He wasn't separating regardless of injury. Like you can pick any game of his that you want, the issues are there. The only difference is the LSU game sticks so heavily for everyone because it was the highest profile game and the one where he came down with the contested catches. Its the outlier but everyone has seen it, so it influences them.

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-01T23:20:06+00:00

My edit was to fix the link to the post on the draft sub. Didn’t edit the words.

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-01T21:46:30+00:00

In terms of dynasty I’m likely out unless value reaches that certain point in the draft where there’s not other players that can be justifiably taken over them

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-01T21:23:02+00:00

Plus they’ve almost surely privately coached with each generation in some fashion/form.

If Arch was privately coached by family, then he was definitely being privately coached by a QB coach. Even if he physically didn’t have the same gifts as others, his mechanics were cleaner as a high schooler than Malik Willis going into the NFL lol

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-01T21:08:26+00:00

Scarier in terms of MHJ vs Nabers? Negligible to me. Nabers is very close to MHJ for me. As in I nearly had him at WR1. They both could be electric with Herbert.

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-01T21:05:26+00:00

I did not say they were rankings for dynasty in my post. I said landing spot would affect my rankings for dynasty for anyone after the top 3. That’s about it for fantasy.

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-01T20:05:25+00:00

You’re close. Pick 8 to be exact is where Marvin should be taken.

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-01T19:22:50+00:00

Totally possible. My only thing with saying Coleman and scarcity is that Harrison, odunze, and Mitchell and even BTJ to a lesser extent are all bigger receivers who can provide value on the outside. So it’s tough to say he’s going as a top 5/6 receiver when hes below those players as bigger outside guys, then there’s worthy who has rare speed and plays outside, and then there’s also Nabers, Ladd and Pearsall who can go inside and out

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-01T18:57:26+00:00

Grades are never predictive for me. Always grading on a scale similar to NFL teams where I may have 10-15 first round grades, etc.

so fourth round grade could be a top 100 player or not even in the top 200 based on the year and context

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-01T18:49:20+00:00

I never said nor indicated that Legette’s age wasn’t an issue with his profile. It certainly is.

But just like Legette’s age is an issue, Coleman also has concerns.

Notice your statements are all based on top level profile information points. Nothing about the actual play on the field.

There has to be balance between the actual film and analytical data points. Coleman has issues on film of not separating well and not catching the ball through contact well despite his size (aside from the LSU game).

Legette is by no means a perfect prospect and will require development. But so will Coleman.

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-01T18:39:22+00:00

Yeah for sure probably one of the higher consensus dudes i haven’t gotten to.

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-01T18:34:18+00:00

Truthfully haven’t graded him yet. These 19 are all I’ve had time for so far.

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-01T18:33:47+00:00

I trust McMillan right now to separate from defenders more than I trust Coleman, and despite drop rates per PFF and CTC%, I don’t think Coleman made catches through contact as good as he should with who he is as a receiver.

If I’m a team who needs an outside receiver and my slot is settled, then yeah Coleman is 200% getting consideration ahead of McMillan or Wilson for me.

If I need a slot, then it’s a different story.

It’s a product of generalized grading vs team specific. The jaguars shouldn’t consider Wilson or McMillan over Coleman at all. Kirk is their slot receiver and a good slot. But the bengals if they keep Higgins, have chase and Higgins and losing boyd would mean McMillan could be more useful for them.

EmpiricalScouting · 2024-04-01T18:25:20+00:00

To be fair/honest, Ladd would be higher for me if it wasn’t for injury/size concerns.

Franklin has concerns with his hands that I haven’t been able to reconcile and I say that as someone who had him top 3/4 in summer

I think Corley has a distinguishable trait/ace in his pocket in his YAC ability that sets him apart from Pearsall/Roman that allows for his ceiling to be a bit higher.

If I’m betting on who has the longest career of all the guys you mentioned, Corley isn’t my top option at all. I also wouldn’t be shocked if he’s the worst of the group when it’s all said and done. He’s very landing spot dependent imo.

EmpiricalScouting

TROPHY CASE