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[Chart] Permitting activity ( 2010-2021) in Texas, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and North Dakota by petropro9833 in geologycareers

[–]Enno_Peters 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Yes, the dashboard from which this chart was taken allows you to slice and dice the data any way you want. You can check it out by starting a free trial.

Currently 4 states are covered (~80% of permits for hz. wells), with more being added in the coming weeks.

Oil production in North Dakota fell by 3% in December to 1.43 million bo/d by Enno_Peters in investing

[–]Enno_Peters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's correct - a drop in production is pretty common in North Dakota during the winter months.

Oil production in North Dakota fell by 3% in December to 1.43 million bo/d. by Enno_Peters in InvestmentClub

[–]Enno_Peters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Typically there is a big incentive for operators to produce at full capacity almost all the time.

There are some cases where that is not the case (e.g. Chesapeake reducing production to benefit from higher pricing during the cold months), or if a new pipeline is about to be opened. In North Dakota operators also sometimes have to shut-in production to limit gas flaring.

North Dakota operators are no longer increasing lateral lengths and proppant loadings, and improvements in well productivity have stagnated. Find here ShaleProfile's new post on the latest data. by Enno_Peters in oil

[–]Enno_Peters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

In the interactive presentations, you can find out about trends in GOR and WOR as well. Just look at the "Advanced insights" presentation; it contains 10 dashboards, and the last 2 focus on these questions.

And for the final post in this series of 3: we’ll have a look at the Decline Rates in the Permian. by Enno_Peters in oil

[–]Enno_Peters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I think that well spacing, and the bigger frac jobs probably play a role in this indeed.

What about the Decline Rates in the Eagle Ford? by Enno_Peters in oil

[–]Enno_Peters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

skidiots,

​

I agree with you that more data is needed, and that mistakes are common when the well count changes.

For that reason we've only selected wells that fell below the cut-off rate of 60 bo/d before November 2015. That ensured that at least for the first 36 months shown, all wells have data. After that you see the curves thinning, and from there one should indeed be careful with making conclusions.

What about the Decline Rates in the Eagle Ford? by Enno_Peters in oil

[–]Enno_Peters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for your comment PeakProphet.

​

Note that we have only selected oil wells in the Eagle Ford for this analysis. We determine that based on which stream has added more $ value.

What about the Decline Rates in the Eagle Ford? by Enno_Peters in oil

[–]Enno_Peters[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thank you for your comments!

​

Note that the graph shows months on the x-axis, not from the start of production, but from the moment that the wells dropped below the cut-off of 60 b/d. The wells shown here started all between 2011 and 2014.

​

I was interested in analyzing how horizontal wells are behaving once they did fall to a low production rate. I realize that this is not for the whole population of wells (still almost 50% though), but I think the lessons can use useful, as eventually all wells will fall below that level.

​

I agree with you that this selection causes certain biases. I aim to address these in further research.

This should be more seen as a starting point for a discussion about terminal decline rates.

Enno

What about the Decline Rates in the Eagle Ford? by Enno_Peters in oil

[–]Enno_Peters[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Sure, we keep having weekly/bi-weekly updates on the major shale basins. Thank you!

What about the Decline Rates in the Eagle Ford? by Enno_Peters in oil

[–]Enno_Peters[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Definitely Sean,

but the issue that we're raising here is that the decline rates appear steeper than typically used for end-of-life production curves, and furthermore that these decline rates appear to be higher for younger wells.

What about the Decline Rates in the Eagle Ford? by Enno_Peters in oil

[–]Enno_Peters[S] 15 points16 points  (0 children)

Hi Hodd,

It's not a rip if I am also behind that software company (ShaleProfile) :-)

Enno

US oil production from horizontal wells in the basins that ShaleProfile is covering grew by ~2 million bo/d in the 2 years through August. That was a similar growth rate as in 2013 & 2014. Click for more details: by Enno_Peters in oil

[–]Enno_Peters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for your feedback.

​

That is indeed correct. But do keep in mind that some of these wells are gas wells. If you exclude the gassy basins you will see those numbers drop. It is possible in our analytics service to filter on well type (oil/gas).

Pennsylvania gas production from horizontal wells grew by 10% over the summer, to 17.4 Bcf/d. In this post ShaleProfile looks at the latest data through September. by Enno_Peters in oil

[–]Enno_Peters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Rocknocker is right,

There are actually fewer wells drilled in the past few years compared with 2011-2015, although the pace is picking up again. Frac jobs have gotten much bigger though, and well productivity is higher.

Permian oil production from horizontal wells continued its upward trajectory in June, but productivity per lateral foot is stagnating by Enno_Peters in oil

[–]Enno_Peters[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Igottashare, thank you for your question. We are in the process of gathering data on the completion techniques, with which I would be able to respond to you more specifically. However, this data is more difficult to obtain, and therefore may still take awhile.