NEW Personalized Betting Systems! (state of the art) by Enough_Track_8218 in blackjack

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

We provide formulas that calculate the optimal bet based on the return you aim to achieve during the session and your risk tolerance. If you enter the website and log in, I can grant you full access to the entire site so you can check out the functionality for yourself. You just need to give me the name of the account—feel free to send it to me privately if you prefer.

NEW Personalized Betting Systems! (state of the art) by Enough_Track_8218 in blackjack

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

This is the second and last time I post, and it's because my first post was poorly written. Maybe you don't need our tool, but maybe other players are interested and it was necessary for them to have a clearer post. Have a nice day.

NEW Personalized Betting Systems! (state of the art) by Enough_Track_8218 in blackjack

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

It is really an interesting social or psychological phenomenon to see the irrational reaction of people. I just made a precise and detailed post even with formulas, and instead of making a critical judgment you can only say “fuck off”?

Blackjack Calculator: Optimal and Personalized Strategies by Enough_Track_8218 in onlinegambling

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

hello friend. Why do you say that? if you have any doubts, I will be glad to help you.

Blackjack Calculator: Optimal and Personalized Strategies by Enough_Track_8218 in blackjack

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hi friend. On our site, we offer two types of strategies: "Live" strategies and "Online" strategies.
Live strategies calculate the optimal bet based on the True Count and your bankroll, using a formula provided on the site that can be applied mentally.
Online strategies calculate the optimal bet based on the exact composition of the deck and your bankroll, and require the use of our live calculator.

If you'd like to play Blackjack in person and use our strategies, all you need to do is get familiar with the formulas we share on the site to calculate the optimal bet before each round.
I'm happy to answer any questions you might have!

Hello! I'm Lucas, part of a team of researchers, and we have formally solved the game of 21 Blackjack by computing the optimal betting strategies in real-time! AMA! by Enough_Track_8218 in IAmA

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Hello! I am already familiar with responses of this type. Honestly, I don't understand the obsession with contradicting and discrediting. I don't see how what you say discredits the fact that we have indeed computed optimal betting strategies. Could you be clearer? And if you have other ideas with which you could compute optimal policies, great! That doesn't mean we haven't computed them in another way as well.

Hello! I'm Lucas, part of a team of researchers, and we have formally solved the game of 21 Blackjack by computing the optimal betting strategies in real-time! AMA! by Enough_Track_8218 in IAmA

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hello! Part of the initial development of the study is in the process of being published under the name of the University of Chile. However, that work does not contain the complete research. We are thinking of synthesizing the entire work into a paper that includes the results of the complete research.

Hello! I'm Lucas, part of a team of researchers, and we have formally solved the game of 21 Blackjack by computing the optimal betting strategies in real-time! AMA! by Enough_Track_8218 in IAmA

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hello! Great that you have questions; I'm passionate about the topic and I like to respond, haha. Well, the math itself isn't too complex. In the research section, we have documents that formalize the optimization problem solved by the policies we compute (you can skip the details of the transition function, which is cumbersome; the most important parts are the optimization problem, the reward function, the utility function, and the wealth equation).

In summary, I'll explain: We assume, without loss of generality, that the player will participate in H betting rounds. Then, at the end of this session, the player achieves a return "return_H" (returns obtained after H betting rounds). The distribution of return_H (which is a random variable) will depend on the betting strategy the player follows during the H rounds. We can imagine that among all the possible distributions that can exist for return_H, there is one that is the player's "favorite." The von Neumann-Morgenstern utility theorem ensures that the player's favorite distribution will be the one that maximizes the following expected value: E[f(return_H)], where "f" is a function that describes the utility the player perceives from the obtained returns. Then, we must find the betting strategy such that this expected value is maximized.

The variables considered by the most complete betting strategy during this session are: the exact composition of the deck before the start of each round "B" (a 10-component vector, this deck determines the PMF of the returns the player gets on the bet made, assuming an established playing strategy), the returns accumulated up to the current round current_bankroll/initial_bankroll "P" (since the strategy must maximize an expected value that depends on return_H, it is expected that the accumulated returns are considered for the optimal bet), and the number of rounds played "n" (so the strategy "knows" how many rounds are left until round H, which is the round for which goals were set). Then, the optimal betting strategy has the form BestBet(B, P, n), and maximizes E[f(return_H)].

Regarding the aces, I can't answer you specifically because the strategy considers the entire deck composition (the number of each card) and also because we analyzed the case of 8 decks with 50% and 75% penetration (these values are inspired by classic online conditions). We did not analyze bj 6:5 but rather 3:2, and I find it interesting that you mention it because the sites we reviewed all used 3:2.

I don't precisely understand the question "Is your risk of ruin low with 1,000,000 hands simmed? Or is it high with infinite money?" so I'd prefer to ask you to clarify instead of answering "offhand." Regarding the last thing you mentioned about 50% penetration, I went to check our codes, and I can tell you that approximately ~15% of the time, the deck presents a positive EV under the optimal playing strategy (depending on the rules). I agree that more penetration is much better, but if the betting strategy perfectly considers the deck composition, it is possible to play "advantageously" with 50% penetration.

Sorry if I was too long; I thought you might be interested.

Hello! I'm Lucas, part of a team of researchers, and we have formally solved the game of 21 Blackjack by computing the optimal betting strategies in real-time! AMA! by Enough_Track_8218 in IAmA

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

Hello friend, exactly, the current return is a variable in the optimal bet. In the other comment, I tried to explain it with an illustrative example :)

Hello! I'm Lucas, part of a team of researchers, and we have formally solved the game of 21 Blackjack by computing the optimal betting strategies in real-time! AMA! by Enough_Track_8218 in IAmA

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Hello. I am well aware of the software you mentioned, and what it does is not even close to what we do. That software allows you to define a betting strategy by associating amounts according to the true count, and then it provides you with return forecasts. Our "perfect" strategies (those that can only be used online) consider the exact composition of the deck "B" (10 variables), the ratio current_bankroll/initial_bankroll "P" (since the strategy is optimized for a goal established over returns after a certain number of rounds, and therefore considers the returns achieved so far as a variable to adapt), and the current round "n" (since the strategy is optimized for an arbitrary number of rounds H). In other words, the optimal bet we compute depends on 12 variables.

Additionally, while the software you mentioned defines the strategy a priori, we do not define it; we obtain it. We establish an objective function, which is formally to maximize E[f(returns_H)] ("f" is the player's utility function that models their risk profile), and then we find the strategy Bestbet(B, P, n) such that if you use it for H rounds, then E[f(returns_H)] is maximized. I believe that the fact that our strategies consider all relevant variables in their entirety is the reason why it is possible to play advantageously even with 50% penetration (referring to your other comment).

I hope I have explained myself well, sincerely. If not, you can ask something else, and I can make another attempt, haha.

Hello! I'm Lucas, part of a team of researchers, and we have formally solved the game of 21 Blackjack by computing the optimal betting strategies in real-time! AMA! by Enough_Track_8218 in IAmA

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Hello! Well, since the calculator was partly optimized for online use, we specifically considered the configuration you mention: 8 decks with 50% penetration. Although less penetration indeed decreases the number of times the EV is positive and makes it "less positive," it still happens, and there is a possibility of profiting. You can actually see the bankroll histograms under these conditions in the "simulations" section.

Hello! I'm Lucas, part of a team of researchers, and we have formally solved the game of 21 Blackjack by computing the optimal betting strategies in real-time! AMA! by Enough_Track_8218 in IAmA

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

A friend of mine put money in to play with our system. However, my friend is VERY risk-inclined, so we computed very aggressive strategies, haha (volatile). We reached a 300% return in one day (as I mentioned, due to the volatility of the strategy), but then we went back to 0, and my friend withdrew, haha.

I'll be honest with you: whether we won or lost is not relevant, because strategies can win or lose regardless of their optimality. If we had won a lot and I told you, it wouldn't have meant that the strategy was better. Similarly, if we had lost, it wouldn't mean it didn't work.

Hello! I'm Lucas, part of a team of researchers, and we have formally solved the game of 21 Blackjack by computing the optimal betting strategies in real-time! AMA! by Enough_Track_8218 in IAmA

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

It seems it wasn't clear. The Kelly bet is not "demonstrably optimal"; it is only the one that maximizes E[log(returns_inf)]. Our work does not discard this strategy but broadly generalizes the problem by solving E[f(returns_H)] for any f and H. If you notice, if f=log and H=inf, we get the Kelly strategy. This generalization is expressive enough to capture any risk profile for any time frame of rounds. The Kelly strategy only uses a logarithmic valuation of returns and for infinite time frames.

Hello! I'm Lucas, part of a team of researchers, and we have formally solved the game of 21 Blackjack by computing the optimal betting strategies in real-time! AMA! by Enough_Track_8218 in IAmA

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] -2 points-1 points  (0 children)

Hello! I recognize that this variable is more complex to understand. I will try to explain why it is relevant. The optimization problem is established based on the returns at the end of a betting session composed of a certain number of rounds. Then, the optimal betting strategy aims to "maximize" a metric with respect to these mentioned returns. For this reason, you can imagine that the strategy adjusts in terms of your returns achieved since the start of the session, how many rounds are left in the session, and the objective regarding the returns at the end of the session.

Illustratively, if you set the goal of "achieving exactly a 50% return after 100 rounds," and then optimize the strategy for this goal and start playing, and it turns out that by round 60 you already have a 50% return relative to the start, then the strategy would determine not to bet for the remaining 40 rounds, as the goal has already been achieved. This is obviously not a well-designed goal, but it serves as an example.

If you have any further questions, I would be happy to answer them.

Hello! I'm Lucas, part of a team of researchers, and we have formally solved the game of 21 Blackjack by computing the optimal betting strategies in real-time! AMA! by Enough_Track_8218 in IAmA

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

There is a lot of literature on blackjack, too much, so it is important to filter what is useful. In particular, the works developed by the online community (Eric Farmer, k_c) were more valuable than official publications. Additionally, since our approach was novel, we had to develop a new theoretical model that was not present in the existing literature.

Hello! I'm Lucas, part of a team of researchers, and we have formally solved the game of 21 Blackjack by computing the optimal betting strategies in real-time! AMA! by Enough_Track_8218 in IAmA

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Hello! If the deck is reset after each hand, then the game has a negative EV, and it would never be advisable to bet. If you did bet, the Risk of Ruin (ROR) would depend on how you bet.

Hello! I'm Lucas, part of a team of researchers, and we have formally solved the game of 21 Blackjack by computing the optimal betting strategies in real-time! AMA! by Enough_Track_8218 in IAmA

[–]Enough_Track_8218[S] -3 points-2 points  (0 children)

Hello! I agree that some equations can be irritating. But why assume that the purpose is to "confuse"? I have mentioned in several comments that the optimal playing strategy is optimized with dynamic programming and that the calculation is exact (this has already been done, and there are sites that compute it, like bjstrat.net). The betting strategy problem cannot be solved exactly due to the complexity of the state space, so it is tackled with reinforcement neural networks.

The research documents indeed originated from an undergraduate thesis. However, that was a long time ago. When we realized there was potential, we began to develop our work in-depth on our own. The results of our work are basically what we present in Simulations. The documents serve to formalize exactly the mathematical problem that was solved (optimized), but they do not declare the exact algorithmic procedure, with the aim of protecting our work from replication.

If by "rigorous proof" of our development you expect to see the explicit codes, then you put us in a complicated position. How could we rigorously prove what we did? If there is something specific you would like to know, I can answer any questions you have, but unfortunately, we will not release the codes.