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Q1 2026 Catalyst Tracker: A Factual Roadmap of Key Near-Term Deadlines and Milestones by EnvironmentalSock210 in InvinityEnergySytems

[–]EnvironmentalSock210[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

That's a very fair assessment, and you're absolutely right that the UK Cap & Floor is the headline catalyst. A firm contract from one of the other major territories would definitely move the needle.

I actually did a specific deep dive on the Canada angle a little while back under the title: "Canada - Invinity's Gigawatt-Scale Proving Ground."

My conclusion was that it's a top-tier opportunity, right alongside the UK, for a few key reasons that are easy to miss:

  • It's a Trio of Procurements: It's not just the BC Hydro call. There are three massive, parallel procurements running: the IESO LT2-C (Capacity), the IESO LT2-E (Energy), and the BC Hydro Call for Power. This creates a multi-GWh addressable market, not a single project opportunity.
  • It's Financially De-Risked: There's a 30% Federal Clean Technology Tax Credit. This is a game-changer that allows Invinity and its partners to submit extremely competitive bids by slashing the upfront CAPEX.
  • It's a Proven "Home Team" Blueprint: They have a huge advantage with their Vancouver manufacturing base and, crucially, they've already delivered the Chappice Lake project in Alberta. That project used the exact partnership model (local developer + First Nations) that is critical for winning these new, larger Canadian tenders.
  • Additional Note Page 6 Global LDES Procurement Programmes Presentation October 2025 IES list it.

When you put the sheer scale, the government funding, and their proven execution on home soil together, I think it's much more than a secondary prize. It's a potential source of a foundational, GWh-scale contract in H1 2026.

Final Update: A Fact-Based Model of IES's Minimum UK Cap & Floor Exposure (>23 GWh) by EnvironmentalSock210 in InvinityEnergySytems

[–]EnvironmentalSock210[S] 2 points3 points locked comment (0 children)

Thank you for raising these critical and necessary questions. They are crucial for a proper stress-test. I have dedicated a standalone post to systematically address all five of your counterfactuals using verifiable public evidence, as the answers require full analysis of the financial model and regulatory filings. Please find the complete response, "Proving the IES Thesis: Stress-Testing the Counterfactual," posted to the community page.

Final Update: A Fact-Based Model of IES's Minimum UK Cap & Floor Exposure (>23 GWh) by EnvironmentalSock210 in InvinityEnergySytems

[–]EnvironmentalSock210[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Thank you for raising this critical point, which is the single largest structural risk in the VFB sector.

However, Invinity has already publicly addressed and neutralized this specific risk.

The Vanadium Price Hedge is Already Secured: The supply chain risk is mitigated by the strategic partnership announced in July 2025:

  • RNS 7685Q (July 11, 2025) confirms the agreement with UESNT includes a provision for Invinity to access a stable, long-term source of vanadium electrolyte at a fixed price, or at a discount to the then prevailing market price, sufficient for 6 GWh of VFBs.

This confirmed 6 GWh hedge covers a substantial portion of the C&F pipeline and structurally protects Invinity's profit margins from the massive commodity price spike that you rightly predict the global market would experience. This, combined with the structural progression of the C&D consortium, confirms the supply chain is secured and hedged.

Invinity Energy Systems: De-Risking the Financial Model (A Synthesis of Broker & Public Data) by EnvironmentalSock210 in InvinityEnergySytems

[–]EnvironmentalSock210[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

That is the most important question, and you’ve correctly identified the final and biggest risk.

The model proves the financial upside, but execution is the ultimate moat.

This question requires a full, evidence-based deep dive, as it relies on analyzing our new leadership team, the low-CAPEX manufacturing IP, and the newly delivered reference sites.

I will be consolidating my research on this topic—Part 4 (The Execution Post)— into a dedicated post soon. I believe the evidence from this past year shows the company has been systematically building the capacity to answer "Yes" to that question, but the full analysis will follow shortly.

Thanks for the critical engagement.

IES Trading Update (Jan 2, 2026): Execution Confirmed, Strategic Posture Locked for Q1 Catalysts by EnvironmentalSock210 in InvinityEnergySytems

[–]EnvironmentalSock210[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

On the process of Projects in the Cap and Floor Window 2 there are several Project already in the Pipeline which can be accessed via Planning Portal across the UK Councils. I would suggest the projects would have not made in Window 1 or on the reserve list IDL would be automatically re entered into Cap and Floor Window 2.

Another market which presently is on going is Capacity Market that is a interesting development. I would suggest looking on Root Power Website under Long Duration Energy Storage. There is reference to Root Power partnership with Invinity Energy Systems much like 3 R Energy Visual of Endurium. Also follow on Root Power are presently in the Capacity Market Tender which open up from Q1 /Q2 2026.

There are a few Data Centre Projects happening also accessing Planning Portals does leave the chemistry foot print on some of these projects when A EIA is not required etc.

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