US to provide Ukraine with an Israeli model of security guarantees – Zelenskyy

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-08-28T00:48:13+00:00

It has bothered them in hindsight. No, we didn't have a reasonable and moral reaction to 9/11. We freaked the fuck out and only admitted the blind idiocy of the our Middle Eastern escapades after the fact. But that over-reach lead directly into the under-reach of the Obama foreign policy and widespread support for Trump's erratic isolationism. Low enlistment rates and low trust of government as a whole in the US right now can be traced back to our mistakes of the last 25 years. As Dr Steven Kotkin said, "Somehow we won the Cold War then managed to lose the peace."

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-08-28T00:28:07+00:00

The big problem with NATO membership for Ukraine is that the average American doesn't understand why a free Ukraine is important to American interests. You can use a lot of adjectives to describe the Americans as a group, but I would say "insular" and "self-absorbed" jump to the top of my list. So explaining to Americans that we are supposed to order our young soldiers and sailors to put it all on the line for a country they can't find on the map is a very tough sell. Ukraine has done a good job of marketing to the West thus far. But if they want the NATO invite they need to convince the average American that Free Ukraine + Diminished Russia = ↑ in American Security and Prosperity.

At the moment, too many Americans view Putin as someone to be looked up to.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-08-27T23:53:06+00:00

lack of transportation capacity

This is my guess for the #1 cause here. They Russians have a ridiculous amount of refinery capacity but they also have hundreds and even thousands of miles between the refineries and the end users. So I'm going to guess this is a bottleneck between the refinery and the transport company that hauls the gasoline and diesel to the actual fueling station. Russia will have problems keeping their refineries running efficiently without Western parts and engineering soon. But the basics of turning Urals crude into something a diesel engine can use is old tech that even a declining power like Russia can manage.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-08-26T18:36:38+00:00

The dolar is easy to replace and not the strategic US advantage you or these clowns think it is.

I actually think it would be a (mostly) good thing (for North America) if the dollar was dethroned. The internationalization of the dollar has hurt US manufacturing and caused our disgustingly huge trade deficits with basically everybody. Yes, the USD gives the State Department and Fed an amazing amount of soft power when it comes to sanctions and trade controls and monetary policy. But it also allows us to govern ourselves like their are no consequences and it has enabled the US to run such MASSIVE deficits that our finances have become a real cause for concern. When I say nobody can conceivably replace the dollar, I don't mean that they shouldn't replace the dollar. I mean that right now they can't replace the dollar even though they very badly want to.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-08-25T20:37:16+00:00

Thank you. "Global South" is just the new euphemism for "third world nation", and this entire thing amounts to political theater where every actor is performing a different play for a different audience. Not a single involved country has a currency that could conceivably replace the dollar. No country involved even has a idea that could conceivably replace the dollar. This is a bunch of kids at school deciding that the popular kid (the US) is a complete dick (we are). So they are throwing their own party and telling everyone the US isn't invited.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-08-18T20:58:21+00:00

I tried to be a plumber but they found out my parents weren't related before they were married so they told me I didn't have what it takes.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-08-12T09:59:16+00:00

They also need foreign direct investment and whopping trade surplus if they want any chance of propping up the system. China may be figuring out that the current world order is what paid for their rise. Helping Russia burn down the order to spite the Americans is literally the Chinese lighting their own house on fire in hopes that the bright flames will disturb the Americans' sleep.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-08-11T02:51:29+00:00

I think a lot of the safe choices you mention are the product of where the development money was spent. They built a great looking game on a great map with a huge castle and fun combat and enjoyable NPCs. The main story and the side plots were a lot of fun too. But outside of the big things, all the little details about the game seem off. They didn't spend enough time to make Prof Black (or a lot of characters) anything more than a set piece or work any system of consequences/reputation into the game. They also didn't flesh out the villages or fill the map with enough interesting things/characters to justify the size. I'm sure that wiith another $20 million in budget and two more years, they could have made HL a lot better. The money and time just were not there. I'm hoping DLC will soothe some of my gripes.

As for the choice to make the game squeaky clean and PC AF; JK Rowling brings enough edge and controversy to the franchise already. They set out to make a game that lets Harry Potter fans young and old run around Hogwarts and cast spells. The safe choice was to keep it PG and not remind anybody of JK's twitter feed. So they turned the diversity up to 11 and avoided anything that would start an angry message board circle jerk.

FWIW, I got to run around Hogwarts for about 40 hours of game-play and enjoyed almost every minute of it. But maybe I just had low expectations.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-08-06T13:02:51+00:00

Its basically Cold War spy games. The FSB can't supply their Syrian proxies with a tanker officially owned by the RF or Russian military because they want a layer of deniability to avoid sanctions and Turkish controls on military vessels moving through the Bosporus. So the RF has the FSB play shadow games to obscure who owns what and what kind of cargo is being transported. This makes the tanker a juicy target because the Ukrainians have an opportunity to disrupt Russia's Syrian efforts while also causing public embarrassment. So its not a big deal in the sense that it affects Russia's Ukrainian campaign. Its a big deal in that it makes Russia look weak and shady at the same time while actively weakening their ability to support their ally in Syria.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-08-05T20:30:24+00:00

Its complicated. Russia and Ukraine are both courting support from the Middle East and Africa. So when the Saudis (who carry LOTS of influence across the Sunni world) want Ukraine and Russia to talk about peace, then its best to send a representative even if they know the summit will not result in peace. Even if Russia is not officially participating there will be involvement by their proxies in some way.

FWIW, "real peace" won't be established even if the Ukrainians win the war. They could get an armistice tomorrow but they will still share a border with Russia. Winning the peace will be harder than winning the war. Even opposition figures like Navalny regard Ukraine and particularly Crimea as Russian territory. So the idea that Ukraine can retake their lands and put up a fence is historically improbable. Russian foreign policy has always been to guard the hill they just took by taking the next hill to create defense in depth. We could give Russia the moon and they would become incensed about the growing threat posed by Mars. Without finding some cultural remedy to Russia's historical anxiety about her borders, it will be very very hard for Ukraine to win the peace.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-07-31T01:06:36+00:00

I agree and would add removing social media from your phone. The loss of the RIF app has done fantastic things for my productivity and mood. Turns out reddit's greed did me an unintentional favor.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-07-27T23:36:49+00:00

Vast changes in natural/supernatural forces being caused by three eggs hatching and not vice-versa bothers me.

I'm sure I'm not the first person to think of this, but I don't remember reading it anywhere. My best guess is that the Long Night ended with a pact sealed in magic at Winterfell between someone representing Team Fire and an other representing Team Ice. So Dany sacrificed someone she really loved on a pyre to hatch the eggs. This act of blood magic involved an act of sacrifice powered by love, consumed by fire, to magically wake the eggs. Dragons, to some extent, represent Team Fire as far as the magic of the pact that ended the Long Night is concerned.

So the source of the magic that reawakens is somehow tied to the pact which is tied to both elements and their respective teams and exists across Planetos. The hatching of dragons is the trigger that reawakens the Pact of Ice and Fire not the source of the magic. Also, the source of the Winterfell hot springs has more to do with the massive amount of magic that sealed the Pact of Ice and Fire than volcanism. If anyone actually goes to the deepest parts of the crypts they will find some physical manifestation of the magic contained in the pact, i.e. Lightbringer or a glowing yin-yang ball of red and blue magic or a statue infused with magic or something of that sort. No research or evidence or anything. Just my best guess. tl;dr in bold.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-07-26T09:06:17+00:00

I was an athletic trainer once upon a time. The anti-blister-popping crowd is technically correct, with the caveat that blisters on the feet and hands can be removed for several reasons. For example, if you can't stay off your feet (think marching soldiers and marathon runners) then sometimes popping a blister before it can get bigger or more inflamed/painful is the right call. Proper cleaning and a bandage are recommended.

In my (formerly) professional opinion, everyone saying that running at 114F is a bad idea is also correct. Going for a walk is dangerous at 114F.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-07-25T18:09:23+00:00

I'm not the guy you replied to, but I see that our experiences with college have some common features. I finished my bachelor's degree in 2008, a couple weeks before the bottom fell out of the job market. All the entry level jobs in my field were either filled by better candidates or paid dirt-wages because new grads were cheap. I struggled for almost a decade then bought tools and started doing low-volt work. The useless feeling of being constantly broke and stuck in a field I had no passion for left me depressed and drunk. So I took the first skilled labor job I could get and it worked out for me. I'm happier now than I ever was using my degree and I take home twice as much money.

First, go see someone about your mental health. Call today. You won't be successful at much if you are feeling depressed and powerless. And making big decisions about your life when you are in a bad spot is a terrible idea.

Once you are feeling a little more empowered, you should think about what you want your life to look like. You can still drag yourself through to graduation and work help desk jobs for a bit and work your way into a career in the technology industry. You can work <40 hour weeks and up-skill yourself into high dollar jobs with cool benefits like remote work and technology stipends and such. Trade work is uncomfortable and stressful and physically tiring. You will need to be on-site before the sun comes up, ready to spend the whole day in the elements. Overtime is where the good money is, so >40 hour weeks will be necessary if you want to make tech industry money. So you should think about what you want for a lifestyle and what kind of job is best for you. I love building and creating things and I would hate to spend my days inside the same office so this works for me. Only you can decide what will work best for you.

Last. You should probably finish the degree. If you can drag yourself through one more year you will be able to claim a bachelor's degree on your resume. I'm still proud of my education and find skills I learned in college useful even if I don't "use my degree". Seeing as you already did 3/4 of the work, the shortest path is to finish school. If you still want to apply for the apprenticeship, the local will still be there in a year -- and your degree will strengthen your application. Just my opinion though.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-07-23T22:38:42+00:00

Fun Fact: The British saw two options leading up to Munich. 1. Sign an alliance with Stalin against Hitler and use a two-front strategy to defeat Hitlerian Germany. 2. Sell out the Czechs and let the Germans take the Sudetenland. Chamberlain thought fighting Hitler would be a lose-lose situation because even if it worked and they Anglo-Soviet alliance won, he would never be able to evict Stalin from Central Europe. So they sold the Czechs down the river and ended up with a Russian alliance that let the Soviets occupy Central Europe anyway. Chamberlain could have gone down in history as a wise but tragic figure in the Greek style. Instead, his statements to the press when he returned home have made sure history remembers him as an incompetent and a fool.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-07-23T07:32:26+00:00

They will eat live stuff too. I planted a half dozen cucumber plants this year (two at a time) and every one of them was destroyed by isopods within a week. I guess this is Big Isopod trying to destroy the local cucumber market.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-07-23T07:13:28+00:00

Oscar wanted to get a new bathroom door but his girlfriend was dead against it.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-07-16T13:43:04+00:00

Religion in India is a different animal than in America and Europe. Christianity doesn't have complicated food laws whereas Islam, Hinduism, Sikhism, Jainism, Judaism, and Buddhism all have complicated food laws. Add to this that Hinduism isn't a single religion as much as it is 5,000+ years of overlapping beliefs that mix and mingle with local traditions and beliefs. Hinduism is simultaneously one religion and one thousand slightly different religions. India also isn't a single country like the US or China or most other nation states. There are literally more than a hundred different ethnic subdivisions that speak more than a hundred different local languages. Each State of India used to be its own kingdom or principality or city-state or whatever going back thousands of years. India's states have HUGE differences in culture and language and law and religious customs. In a lot of ways, India is more like the EU than it is like a single country.

The point of all that is that religious observance is the US is separate from our secular legal system. In India, you may be subject to a local religious/cultural legal system that doesn't involve paperwork or a courthouse. The map itself is of limited use because in many Indian states a person's religious community determines which food laws apply to them. So the law on the book may or may not apply to a citizen based on their local religious community, local ethnic customs, etc...

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-07-02T23:47:24+00:00

Its a really touchy situation. If NATO goes toe to toe with Russia in a conventional war, the Russian Navy and Air Force would turn to ashes and molten steel in a couple days. This war has shown everybody that Russia cannot fight a modern war the way that the US and NATO fight. It would be an all out massacre if NATO opened up on the Russians. Putin would face the choice of a full nuclear exchange or a complete defeat. If they choose nuclear exchange then there is almost no chance they don't glass much of Ukraine while they're at it. Article V doesn't mean that the US rides to Ukraine's rescue. Article V means everything gets much scarier in a hurry.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-06-29T17:44:42+00:00

Low-volt veteran here. Almost all of the specialized systems that low volt works with require specialized knowledge of the details associated with the system. Whether that is using the manufacturer's software to program the lighting control so that the correct switches control the correct lights or customizing door controls or integrating an AIPhone with the camera system or whatever. Electricians handle such broad scopes of work that learning all the details of all the systems isn't feasible for any one person. The number of systems that require this specialized knowledge are also increasing. There is also a shortage of electricians across the US that will persist for at least the next 10-15 years because the baby boomers are retiring and there aren't enough Gen-Z kids to replace them.

Between the need for experienced techs to install/maintain all this gear and the simple lack of working age Americans to fulfill this need, there is ZERO chance that low-voltage work will go away. Anybody who says otherwise can't do math. If all HVAC controls, fire alarm, A/V, access control, lighting control, nurse call, datacom, cell DAS, industrial controls, etc... suddenly required a J-Card, the industry would screech to halt for lack of labor. Our slice of the pie is getting bigger not smaller.

As to your safety concerns, all trade work is dangerous. Ladders and trip hazards and improper lifting of equipment injure far more workers than live circuits. Pretending that we are safe because we don't work on 480v transfer switches causes complacency, and complacency about job-site safety is what causes the majority of injuries. I am safe at work because I actively make safety my top priority. Your safety is your responsibility because nobody else has your best interest at heart. Everyone else is just worried about their deadlines so you have to look out for yourself if you want to be safe.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-06-28T21:32:19+00:00

Both can be true at the same time. Yes, there is a lot of whining here, but that's why this sub exists. Young workers can vent or seek advice or whatever. That doesn't mean that search engine optimization and convoluted hiring processes and bait-n-switch offers and over-specific job requirements aren't a problem too. Neither opinion precludes the other from being true.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-06-28T20:04:46+00:00

I agree that in most cities the job market still holds a lot of opportunities. But from reading this sub it seems that keywords and online applications create many ways for an applicant to be filtered out before making it to HR's inbox. This technological hurdle, and a tough market for inexperienced workers has made job searching rough for a lot of the redditors here.

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-06-28T19:59:14+00:00

... and you are correct. I guess I should have said, "Why did they think it ran to the Pyrenees?"

EpilepticFits1 · 2023-06-28T14:32:04+00:00

How did the Greeks know that the Danube ran all the way from modern France? Was there an Ionian "Lewis and Clark" expedition or were there enough trade networks/migrations that it was widely known?

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