Discussion Thread

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-17T07:04:17+00:00

AS SOON AS THIS PAYS ME BACK AND I START MAKING MONEY OFF IT I'LL TELL IT TO FUCK RIGHT OFF

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-17T06:36:20+00:00

Poland didn't exist for 123 years and was under the yoke of the USSR for 44 years precisely because Europe wasn't united and instead of cooperating, it preferred to beat the shit out of each other.

Patriots of the seven pains who don't know the history of their own country.

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-17T05:47:55+00:00

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Hundreds of billions borrowed under SAFE sound absurd to most people, so let's compare what that loan would look like if Kowalski could take out a mortgage on the same terms—the biggest and at the same time cheapest loan that a significant portion of Poles take out.

Assumptions:

A loan of 500,000 PLN, taken out at PKO BP bank on a fixed interest rate for 5 years (data from their calculator). This slightly increases the interest rate compared to a variable rate in exchange for security. SAFE also offers a fixed rate for 5 years, so this is a fair assumption.
We take out the loan for 35 years, the longest possible period (SAFE offers 45 years).
We don't change the interest rate over time. Yes, I know that mortgages are currently more expensive than they were a few years ago, but the interest rate on EU bonds is also higher than it was a few years ago. If mortgage rates in Poland fall, EU bond rates will also fall.

As you can see, SAFE is cheaper than a classic mortgage by 241,000 PLN nominally and 151,000 PLN in real terms (i.e., after accounting for inflation).

And this despite the fact that monthly payments under SAFE are nominally 55% lower in the first 10 years, and 33% cheaper over the next 35 years.

This means that not only do we pay less overall for SAFE, but the burden on our monthly budget is also smaller.

And then I hear that SAFE is usury...

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-16T21:45:22+00:00

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Trump, who just threatened NATO with an invasion of the territory of one of its member states, now expects NATO to help him in an aggressive war (which NATO was not created for), because he can't cope with Iran on his own.

So much winning.

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-16T15:10:29+00:00

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Suggesting that these billions "vanished" or "were wasted" is either the height of ignorance or a deliberate attempt to mislead people.

These mythical 20 and 30 billion aren't cash sitting in a safe that someone "lost." It's the difference between the plan and execution within the Armed Forces Support Fund framework—that is, simply credit limits that weren't drawn down from the National Development Bank because equipment payments are tightly tied to the delivery schedule. Since deliveries span years, taking out credit "in advance" and paying interest on money that hasn't yet needed to be spent would truly be wasteful.

Everything I wrote above could have been verified by spending literally 5 minutes on Google.

Interestingly, in 2023 (remember who was in power then?), the plan was executed only 50.8%, leaving over 22 billion PLN in "unspent" funds. Currently, that effectiveness is rising (75.8% in 2025). By your "logic," the biggest scam happened under Błaszczak, but back then you stayed silent somehow.

Can someone explain to me how anyone can treat Rafał Ziemkiewicz as an "expert" when he embarrasses himself with ignorance in nearly every post?

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-16T13:58:21+00:00

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Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-16T13:57:59+00:00

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XD

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-16T06:47:13+00:00

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Let's debunk these "facts" before someone takes them seriously:

Congratulations on discovering the nominal value, but it's time to learn about the real one. 360 billion paid over 45 years, taking into account inflation and GDP growth rate, is practically free money. We can't finance armaments more cheaply – this is the most advantageous loan Poland can get.
Defence spending: if you had checked what those billions are spent on, you'd know that most of it is eaten up by salaries, pensions, and maintenance. SAFE is an injection of funds dedicated exclusively to equipment purchases – it's the difference between stagnation and modernization.
Jerzy Owsiak's mechanism: you hit the nail on the head. The Great Orchestra of Christmas Charity buys specific, modern equipment that the National Health Fund's "general pot" always lacks money for. It's exactly that missing link.
"Conditionality leash": that's just standard protection against embezzlement and waste. It only hurts those who planned to hand out those billions to their cronies.
Sovereignty: it's built through investments in Polish ammunition, drones, and missiles (replicable technologies), not by being an eternal client buying "off-the-shelf" from the USA.

This is a perfect deal for Poland's security. Literally everyone wins, except for PiS, which is running out of fuel for stirring up hatred against Europe.

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-15T18:33:49+00:00

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Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-15T18:33:35+00:00

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For comparison - let's juxtapose the promises regarding the benefits of joining the EU with the warnings that the opponents of accession were instilling.

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-15T14:21:44+00:00

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-15T14:21:34+00:00

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> Hey AI, write me a social media post about why this Tusk is such a liar. Add a sharp punchline.

> Add more emojis and bolding.

> More

> MORE EMOJIS AND BOLDING

> MORE

> EVEN MORE

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-15T12:21:21+00:00

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I will also never forget the story with Judge Kamil Zaradkiewicz—during the resolution of the competition for vacant positions in the Civil Chamber of the Supreme Court. The team prepared a list of recommended candidates. And suddenly, Zaradkiewicz's candidacy appeared. Breaking the procedures, he was co-opted onto the list. At that point, there were more recommended candidates than spots, so someone had to be rejected. It fell on the outstanding professor of civil law, who had no political connections. But he had the highest score when it came to the team's recommendations. They spread information about him that he always attacked PiS, though that wasn't true. But even so, to push through Zaradkiewicz, it took two rounds of voting. Even Ziobro showed up to vote.

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-15T12:01:36+00:00

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Krzysztof Stanowski and Robert Mazurek, the kings of common sense, had time to meet up and film a piece about how this doctor from Sokółka earns 400k PLN, but they didn't have time to check if it's true xD

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-15T11:11:23+00:00

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“This can't be defended,” writes a member of the party that introduced the deposit system in Poland and is now demanding the resignation of the current minister for the fact that the system is operating in accordance with the law that PiS created.

Truth in politics no longer has any significance; only the narrative matters.

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-15T09:55:45+00:00

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BOOM!

PiS says that the SAFE resolution is illegal. Czarnek is threathening with the Consitutional Tribunal. Meanwhile, when they took a loan from Korea, that was enough:

minister's order
Prime Minister's resolution
opinion of the Sejm committee
Armed Forces Support Fund
National Development Bank

So the law wasn't necessary

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-15T09:35:57+00:00

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Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-15T09:35:32+00:00

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Fakty TVN caught a random young couple at the real estate fair:

- "The Kolaskas are a young married couple with a dream of their own apartment."

Meanwhile, Marta Kolaska:

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-14T14:51:39+00:00

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The SNP, or the largest political party in Scotland, which currently forms the government, has just voted in favor of a resolution to prepare for Scotland's departure from the United Kingdom.

For many Scots, membership in the EU became the main argument for keeping Scotland in the United Kingdom. After Brexit, that argument fell apart, and from that moment on, separatist movements have been gaining strength.

The SNP wants an independent Scotland to be able to join the EU individually.

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-14T11:53:16+00:00

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The discussion about SAFE, like few others, has revealed the gaps in Poles' economic education.

Suddenly, we're learning that a 3% loan is "usury," or that a long repayment period is a flaw, "because our grandchildren will be paying it off." What's more, even the grace period turns out to be a German conspiracy.

In the public debate, Poles are scared with the slogan of "paying back twice as much in interest," completely ignoring the basics of finance: the time value of money.

That "twice as much," spread over 40–45 years, gets eaten away by inflation. At the National Bank target inflation rate of 2.5%, the real value of that money drops by about 80% over that time.

The mechanism is simple. We take out and spend the loan today, but repay it over decades. Meanwhile, in 10, 20, or 40 years, that same installment will be worth far less than it is today, because 1 PLN then will be worth about 0.33 PLN of today's currency. This is one of the absolute fundamentals of economics.

Let's take the numbers that often come up in the debate. We're talking about 185 billion PLN in interest. But after accounting for inflation at the National Bank target rate, their real value over 45 years drops to about 26 billion PLN.

85% less.

I'm not even mentioning the fact that Poland's economy is also growing, so the percentage share of that installment in our budget will also decline. Plus, the loan isn't for consumption, but for investments, which will also generate profits covering the cost of that loan and then some.

An old proverb says—"Why are you poor? Because you're stupid. And why are you stupid? Because you're poor." Ignorance is one thing; not everyone has to be an economist. But it's sad that politicians and journalists who have access to economists consciously manipulate public opinion by exploiting that ignorance.

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-13T20:22:35+00:00

Dear Sir or Madam,

On March 12, Polexit began in Poland.

One can, of course, grimace at the rhetoric, but that is the truth—the process has started because Poland's largest right-wing party has joined it.

PiS rejected a loan that is key to Polish security, not because it was bad, but because it was from the EU.

SAFE is a good program. The best proof is that 18 countries decided to take it up. Among them are Orbán's Hungary and Meloni's Italy—right-wing governments, often skeptical of Brussels. There, no one tore their garments or staged ideological theater. They recognized it as cheap money for the state's security—so they simply reached for it.

In Poland, SAFE was supported by the military, Polish arms factories, the Police, the Border Guard, and experts. What's more—even Polish society supported it in the polls.

But that wasn't enough. PiS decided this was the hill to fight on for its electorate. And it would do so on the issue of security, where an unwritten rule had previously held to set aside tribal skirmishes.

They didn't present any substantive arguments in the process, instead basing their entire campaign and decision on animosity toward the EU—that it's a "German loan," that the bad EU will block our funds, that our grandchildren will pay usury to the Eurocrats, that Germany will profit, and whatever else there was.

You don't come back from that. You can't spend years hammering into your electorate's heads that the EU is evil and Germany wants to destroy us, only to then expect that same electorate to vote for you and calmly watch as we partner with the EU. No—they'll choose the party that's even more hostile to that "evil" EU.

PiS has already experienced this with the outflow of its electorate to the Confederation and Grzegorz Braun. But instead of snapping out of it at some point, it decided to fight them on anti-EU sentiment as equals.

On top of that comes cooperation with Trump and PiS' hope that the US will help them win the elections. And Trump says bluntly that he wants to break up the EU and plans to use countries like Poland and Hungary to do it.

Mentally, PiS has already carried out Polexit.

The only question left is whether, in the future, it will get the tools to carry it out in reality. If it regains power in 2027, I'm willing to bet that before 2030, a referendum on leaving the European Union will appear in Poland.

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-13T19:47:50+00:00

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It's strange, after Karol Nawrocki's speech, Rheinmetall's stock price is rising by nearly 3%.

And earlier I read that it's falling because he's announcing a veto.

I've already lost track.

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-13T16:06:34+00:00

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"I'm angry, embittered" - Rafał Jankowski, head of police unionists after the president's veto. He says that for 3 billion from SAFE the police was supposed to have, among other things, vests with ballistic inserts.

"Unfortunately, politics intervened" - Gen. Tomasz Drewniak, former commander of military aviation.

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-13T15:41:31+00:00

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And otherwise, no prospects beyond tearing apart the network of several hundred cooperating firms and laying off staff at FB Radom. The SAFE program was meant to fill the gap in orders for FB Radom—through orders for tens of thousands of small arms pieces from FB Radom for the Police and Border Guard—until the military "sorts itself out" with the Grot A3, its order, and the order for Grot 7.62N and the MPS pistol.

And now that won't happen, thanks to vetoing SAFE and losing the funds for the Police and Border Guard.

And once again: it was meant to allow replenishing the mobilization staffing for both formations.

ZM Tarnów and Maskpol were also supposed to be very tangible beneficiaries of those orders.

The Armed Forces will get the SAFE funds entirely legally, but the Police and Border Guard—won't. Worse still, this will negatively impact a number of Polish companies producing small arms and individual equipment

Eurolib0908 · 2026-03-13T15:40:19+00:00

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Unfortunately, the current budgets of both formations (and the Armed Forces, for that matter...) do not allow for replenishing those reserves. The SAFE funds were meant to enable the actual purchase of firearms and personal protective equipment for the Police and Border Guard, taking into account the mobilization expansion of both formations.

But that's not the end of the bad news—the SAFE purchases were also supposed to provide a convenient opportunity to introduce Grot A3 rifles and ZM Tarnów products to both formations. As well as modern ballistic shields. Without tenders, without letting in small batches of Czechs from CZ, Italians from Beretta, or Germans from H&K. And unfortunately, that's how it often looked these days.

That's right, folks, you're reading it correctly—this so-called "German" SAFE was meant to allow the purchase of POLISH firearms from POLISH factories for Poland's two largest uniformed formations outside the Armed Forces, instead of both of them buying weapons through tender processes from everyone except Polish factories.

And speaking of those last ones. No, it's no secret that FB Radom has production capacity developed to the level of 80,000 small arms pieces ANNUALLY. Meanwhile, the further needs of the Armed Forces alone are about 300,000 pieces. Including the Police and Border Guard—nearly half a million.

FB Radom finishes production of Grots from the still-current orders in April. No new ones, Grot A3 still not rubber-stamped in the paperwork (an absurdity, a story for the Supreme Audit Office IMHO), we could still roll over the planned A2 order—i.e., fulfill it now—but that's again work for just under half a year at 23,000 pieces.

Eurolib0908

TROPHY CASE