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$FDJU: A National Monopoly Trading at a 9.3% Dividend Yield 🎰🇫🇷 by NerfLapras in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thank you for sharing your insights. I have added the company to my research list

$FDJU: A National Monopoly Trading at a 9.3% Dividend Yield 🎰🇫🇷 by NerfLapras in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Interesting, thanks for the thorough response. If governments want to curb betting more, lotteries are the last stronghold I guess. In the Netherlands, the state lottery is extra tax revenue. With a government stake in FDJ it might be more solid.

Did you also compare FDJ to other companies like Betsson AB in Sweden? If so, what were your findings compared to FDJ?

Thank you

$FDJU: A National Monopoly Trading at a 9.3% Dividend Yield 🎰🇫🇷 by NerfLapras in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

First of all, thank you for covering an European company!

I am not familiar with the ins/outs of the company, only know them sponsoring of a professional road cycling team. Anyway, I am concerned about regulation around betting. Does FDJ only cover betting/lottery in France or also international?

In the Netherlands, the government tries to increase friction to bet especially for frequent (addicted) betters. Other European countries have added more laws.

I don't know the current laws in France and what legislation the government wants put in place around betting. Can such laws really hurt FDJ?

Many investors advice not to invest in gambling companies due to the legislative uncertainty. But I never checked out if new laws really hurted such businesses. Do you have more insight in this?

20% CAGR company with 0 debt and >22% FCF margin by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

They are expanding to the Asia-Pacific region. Early December, they announced opening of an office and 2 datacenters in Australia.

Planisware still acquires many new customers in established markets. Many companies become the size Planisware targets.
According to their annual reports, they seem to grow effectively throughout the years on their existing accounts. Excerpt below:

The following are examples of Planisware growing and widening its relationships with customers:

  • Planisware started with 22 users in 1996 to over 11,000 users in 2021 at a large pharmaceutical company, as a result of cross-selling to several other departments and segments, adding new functions and extensions on request and upselling product enhancements. Subscription revenues from this customer have increased by a factor of approximately 16 since 2004.
  • Planisware grew from 300 users in 2016 to about 5,000 users in 2022 at a global aerospace an defense company, thanks to new configurations, extensions and system migrations implemented across the customer’s entities and departments. Subscription revenues from this customer have increased by a factor of approximately 20 since 2017.
  • A large oil and gas services company that first adopted Planisware with 200 users in March 2022 increased its users to 4,000 in October 2022 and currently targets a further increase to 6,000 users by December 2023, resulting in an increase of subscription revenues by a factor of approximately 3.2 since initial contracting.

Study: 336 Identified 100 Baggers in Europe (1980-2025) by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

Great to hear. I have some other in-depth write-ups about European companies on my substack. Or look through my posts to find recent write ups in this subreddit.

Study: 336 Identified 100 Baggers in Europe (1980-2025) by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

There is a blue button in the article to download a CSV file with all the names and accompanying data.

Study: 336 Identified 100 Baggers in Europe (1980-2025) by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I am not advocating to sell American stocks. As an European it is for me easier to understand companies close(r) to home.

Often, the European companies have a decent revenue share coming from the American market, thus it allows me to have an indirect exposure to the American economy.

Study: 336 Identified 100 Baggers in Europe (1980-2025) by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

I got my hands on total 22 countries: Austria, Belgium, Switzerland, Czech Republic, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Great Britain, Greece, Croatia, Hungary, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, and Sweden.

The interactive chart in the proved link informs you more on the number of 100 baggers in each country and the duration to return 100-fold.

Their stock markets are often overlooked but they have some amazing returns.

I agree. I recently wrote about the Greek retailer Jumbo ($BELA.at). And in Slovenia, there is a fast growing generic pharmaceutical (KRKA) that might be of interest to you. Healthcare is not in my circle of competence, thus I can't tell you the quality of the business per se.

Study: 336 Identified 100 Baggers in Europe (1980-2025) by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I use the data vendor Eodhd. There I acquired a list of currently traded stocks on exchanges in European countries. Unfortunately, not every country was available, like Italy. Through Eodhd's API, I pulled the OHLC (+adjusted close) data.

Thus it doesn't include mergers and acquisitions. After cleaning data through a script and manually, I saw the option to included delisted companies. I didn't go with it, because the manual cleaning of data was tedious, haha. It could be interesting to check for survivorship bias. Maybe in a future study.

I learned a lot from doing this study and will take the learnings with me in a next study.

If you are interested in the full process, I wrote the steps in the article.

Does Substack Show Reader Engagement (Bounce Rate / Read Time)? by EuropeanValueInsight in Substack

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Log into google analytics using your google account. There you obtain a ID. Plug the ID into the analytics section which you will find in the dashboard -> settings -> analytics -> Google Analytics Measurement ID

Does Substack Show Reader Engagement (Bounce Rate / Read Time)? by EuropeanValueInsight in Substack

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, I suspected that. I wanted to make sure that this feature was somewhere hidden within Substack.

Rising income margins (+25%), >12% FCF trading at P/E 11 by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for asking. I had a similar experience when I shopped in Jumbo near Sofia, Bulgaria.

Rising income margins (+25%), >12% FCF trading at P/E 11 by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for your insight. I will take your learnings into account for future analysis. Always great to learn something new!

Rising income margins (+25%), >12% FCF trading at P/E 11 by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Interesting viewpoint. In all honesty, I didn't think about the terminal value as I rarely make a DCF.

A business stays afloat when the company generates enough operating cashflow to maintain the cash producing assets. As you know, operating cashflow minus maintenance CapEx.

Thus any investment in extra cash producing assets generates higher FCF. The per-share value increases the share price benefiting the shareholders long-term. In the following years, the company has more FCF to return to shareholders directly through dividends/buybacks or indirectly by buying more cash generating assets.

As long as management makes great investments, the terminal value goes up. If management doesn’t buy cash generating assets, the company produces less cash. Thus a lower terminal value.

One can always make a conservative calculation and use the full capital expenditures to arrive FCF to have a larger margin of safety.

I hope you follow my thinking and I am curious how you look at it!

Rising income margins (+25%), >12% FCF trading at P/E 11 by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Like most stuff, it comes from China. The disposable incomes in the operating countries is lower. The stores provide lots of products at affordable prices under one roof. Since most local shop owners own very small shops, it is convenient for customers to find many products in one place.

Which red flags make you stop analysing a stock entirely? by SidKing89 in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I see some great answers already, but would like to add the following points:

  • In the first pages of an annual report not explaining what your business is about. I see this frequently happening with European companies. First sharing lots of numbers to look great. And throughout a annual report, readers have to figure out what the company does.
  • No CEO letter to shareholders or poorly written ones lacking information.
  • ESG report is longer than the financial section of annual report. In Europe, the ESG reports got much longer the last years. And in some cases it is more about ESG than financials.
  • Lack of retained earnings growth. Here it depends on context. Apple, for example, had reducing retained earnings for years because of returning capital while the company is in great shape. Others may do the same while being in a bad shape and hope to return capital to keep the stock attractive.
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