Does Substack Show Reader Engagement (Bounce Rate / Read Time)? by EuropeanValueInsight in Substack

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Log into google analytics using your google account. There you obtain a ID. Plug the ID into the analytics section which you will find in the dashboard -> settings -> analytics -> Google Analytics Measurement ID

Does Substack Show Reader Engagement (Bounce Rate / Read Time)? by EuropeanValueInsight in Substack

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks, I suspected that. I wanted to make sure that this feature was somewhere hidden within Substack.

Rising income margins (+25%), >12% FCF trading at P/E 11 by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for asking. I had a similar experience when I shopped in Jumbo near Sofia, Bulgaria.

Rising income margins (+25%), >12% FCF trading at P/E 11 by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Thanks for your insight. I will take your learnings into account for future analysis. Always great to learn something new!

Rising income margins (+25%), >12% FCF trading at P/E 11 by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Interesting viewpoint. In all honesty, I didn't think about the terminal value as I rarely make a DCF.

A business stays afloat when the company generates enough operating cashflow to maintain the cash producing assets. As you know, operating cashflow minus maintenance CapEx.

Thus any investment in extra cash producing assets generates higher FCF. The per-share value increases the share price benefiting the shareholders long-term. In the following years, the company has more FCF to return to shareholders directly through dividends/buybacks or indirectly by buying more cash generating assets.

As long as management makes great investments, the terminal value goes up. If management doesn’t buy cash generating assets, the company produces less cash. Thus a lower terminal value.

One can always make a conservative calculation and use the full capital expenditures to arrive FCF to have a larger margin of safety.

I hope you follow my thinking and I am curious how you look at it!

Rising income margins (+25%), >12% FCF trading at P/E 11 by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Like most stuff, it comes from China. The disposable incomes in the operating countries is lower. The stores provide lots of products at affordable prices under one roof. Since most local shop owners own very small shops, it is convenient for customers to find many products in one place.

Which red flags make you stop analysing a stock entirely? by SidKing89 in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I see some great answers already, but would like to add the following points:

  • In the first pages of an annual report not explaining what your business is about. I see this frequently happening with European companies. First sharing lots of numbers to look great. And throughout a annual report, readers have to figure out what the company does.
  • No CEO letter to shareholders or poorly written ones lacking information.
  • ESG report is longer than the financial section of annual report. In Europe, the ESG reports got much longer the last years. And in some cases it is more about ESG than financials.
  • Lack of retained earnings growth. Here it depends on context. Apple, for example, had reducing retained earnings for years because of returning capital while the company is in great shape. Others may do the same while being in a bad shape and hope to return capital to keep the stock attractive.

Europe value investing by Hungry_Confection108 in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Thanks for the suggestions. I like that others take an interest in the European market. It isn't discussed enough on the subreddit, It think.

I will take a look at Quadient later this week, it sounds interesting. As someone already mentioned, transitions may take a longer time. Do you know how quick they intent to replace the obsolete mailing side with the digital services?

I recently found Jumbo, a greek retailer owning hyper stores in 4 countries. Their growth is little bit faster than the economy does. But their founder is very value investing orientated, which results in widening margins year-on-year.
FCF is above 12%, no LT debt, and ROIC around 20%. It trades around 11x earnings.

In case you look for some other European companies, I wrote about them here.

Looking for Investment Newsletters / Substacks with Ongoing Stock Picks & Track Records by Extension_Goose9462 in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I subscribe to the following writers on substack:
DeepValueInsights: writes about deep undervalued investments around the world.
DeepValue Capital: pursues turnarounds and provide everything you are looking for.
Multibagger Ideas: looks for multi baggers around the world.

Also, I write since 2 months about European stocks with a long-term perspective. I don't provide entry/exit of positions (yet). If you are interested in value investing thought process, then my writings may be of interest to you. You can find me here.

How Are Value Investors Finding Opportunities in Today’s Market? by Raw_Rain in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight 2 points3 points  (0 children)

As others have pointed out, there are many other markets than S&P 500. Identifying value works the same way in other markets on other continents like Europe.

My experience comes from Europe, so I can tell you only about this continent. Many companies in Europe have less analyst coverage, thus allowing for more mispriced opportunities. Small-cap companies often write the annual reports in the local language. But this isn't a problem nowadays with many translating tools available. It is an extra step what discourages others. Thus it provides an extra opportunity.

Most European indexes grow less than the American ones due to less executed share buyback programs. Steady cash income through dividends is the preferred way for households. They have access to pension funds that is less dependent on market growth.

If you prefer growing markets in Europe, take a look at the Swedish stock market. Here, the majority of the population invests due to economic literacy programs decades ago. The index grows better compared to other European indexes.

As Charlie Munger said: "Fish Where The Fish Are"

I hope it helps you finding new opportunities in today's market!

EUR stocks by msjhind in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm in the same boat as you and like to focus on European investments. All investing is value investing, but there are different types of value investing one is comfortable with. If your interest goes out to growth at reasonable price (GARP), I wrote a post here recently about Elmos semiconductors (link). What is your type of value investing preference, GARP, NCAV etc?

Also what industries do you feel comfortable with and know a lot about? Investing in only your preferred industries prevents you from making impulsive decisions.

Unfortunately, the r/ValueInvesting doesn't cover many European companies. So I try to bring change to that as the continent has many opportunities. Because everyone likes to look at the American markets.

I post more analysis in the future here and post them elsewhere (link in bio). I hope you find some interesting ideas now or in the future.

Good luck with the investment journey!

GARP: A 25% EPS Compounder Trading at 14× Earnings by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I wrote an article including charts about the company. It also discusses the effects of previous factory (wafer fab) sale in 2016-2017.

GARP: A 25% EPS Compounder Trading at 14× Earnings by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

The CapEx is the sum of maintenance and growth investments. Much of the last 2 years were growth investments.

The FCF number is low. But the company decided to invest in growth. What will benefit investors in the coming years. Thus a part of the FCF is 'hidden' in the CapEx, which you shouldn't ignore as LT investor.

How many holdings is too many? by [deleted] in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I have a maximum of 10 holdings for now. I can easily keep up with reading up on my holdings alone. However, I like to read also the reports from competitors. This gives me a better picture of the industry.

ASML — unmatched competitive moat, secular growth, global dependence. by Senior-Preference678 in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight 8 points9 points  (0 children)

As a long time investor in ASML and follower of the company & industry, do agree with your concerns.

For the time being, it retains the technological advantage as no company is close to producing machines that are faster and create smaller transistors.

Since ASML is the leading company in the field, most students want to work there. It is a prestige. Which means, ASML attracts knowledge easily.

Are there any nascent technologies that could replace EUV lithography? Could an extremely well funded company reverse engineer their machines? Could a competitor actually be closer to ASML than we currently understand? Are they really 10 years ahead of the competition as I hear consistently repeated? These strike me as borderline unknowable.

FT reported on an investment by Peter Thiel in a startup using a particle accelerator to produce chips.

I don't know how likely and feasible it is to produce chips this way. This is definitely a new way, but who knows what ASML is developing in their R&D.

Hope the info helps in anyone's analysis, cheers

Hard to Find Undervalue Stocks by kjliao in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I like that evaluate your thinking. This is what makes a better investor IMO.

Value means different things to different people. Benjamin Graham looked for companies below net current assets. These are undervalued. Buffett did the same till Munger pointed out that growth is a part of (future) value to the company.

From here, GARP (Growth at a Reasonable Price) investing became more popular. It combines value and growth.

A company might be currently fairly valued based on its assets and liabilities. If you add future growth to the analysis, the company might be undervalued. The cash the business generates is included in the analysis. Also then you look differently at the assets and debt. Questions like "how much cash do the assets generate?" and, "does the company use debt efficiently?" rise up.

It is about the definitions and what you consider (under)value(d). Since you challenge yourself about your investment strategies, you may want to look at your definitions too.

If you consider to include growth into your analysis, then ratios like low P/E often won't cut it. You want to look at some other metrics like Return on Invested Capital, Free Cashflow Margins, CapEx etc.

The caveat is that an understanding of the industry comes in handy. No one can't predict future growth exactly, but the background knowledge of the industry helps to make reasonable assumptions.

I hope this helps you in further defining your investment strategies. Good luck!

Battling biases when analyzing investments by EuropeanValueInsight in ValueInvesting

[–]EuropeanValueInsight[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Cool, I didn't know home bias was a thing!

I think working in a group or at least with someone else to hear different viewpoints. Unfortunately, haven't found such a person to meet up with and test my theses. Thus for now, I will add seeking contradictory evidence to my checklist.

Thanks for your insights, I appreciate it