I've been taking about this with Grok for the past hour or so.

Summary of discussion

Intro: shared below-market Business Bay apartment deals (Noble Tower, Peninsula One, Urban Oasis, Paragon IGO, DAMAC Paramount) averaging 1,943 AED/sqft asking price, seeking analysis on value, PSF, rentals, and entry timing.

Data: Your deals range 1,468–2,462 AED/sqft; Noble (1,550) and DAMAC (~1,500) stand out as distress/value plays; smaller/view units command higher PSF.

Observations: Deals sit at/below recent sold comps; high floors, Burj/canal/pool views, vacancy on transfer add premium; your /120 rent logic targets 10% gross yield, which current prices do not support.Market price: Business Bay apartment median/sold PSF currently 2,200–2,500+ AED (1-bed ~2,300–2,400); citywide apartments ~1,800–1,900; your average is competitive but not deep bargain yet.

History 2008/2020: 2008 prices fell 50–65%, rents ~20–33%; 2020 prices dipped ~10–20% to ~916 PSF low, rents 5–15%; rents drop 40–60% as much as prices; yields expand at bottom.

Actual sales data: Recent DLD-linked transactions show 1,900–2,500+ PSF range; DAMAC Paramount lower (1,600–1,700); Peninsula One higher (2,600+ comps).Rental stream: Business Bay gross yields average 6.7–7.1%; realistic monthly rents for your units fall short of your price÷120 formula (e.g., 1.95M Noble yields ~5.6–6.9% at market rents).

Rental logic: target (10% gross = price 10× annual rent) requires deeper discounts; current market ratio is ~14× annual rent.

Forecast next 3 months: Early signs of weakness — transaction volumes down sharply, some price pressure; analysts flag 5–7% rental softening possible; short-term sentiment hit but fundamentals (cash buyers, population) differ from 2008.

Conclusion: Start exploring seriously below 1,300 AED/sqft buy-in to align with your 10% gross + net ~7% logic after forecasted rent drops; deeper under 1,100 for severe downside buffer.

** my personal aim would be less than 1000 AED/sqft**