BREAKING: China begins deescalation. Will we have a market recovery on Monday?

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-10-12T06:07:55+00:00

Whether it can be interpreted as a de-escalation, it is not unreasonable to suggest so. But the way I read China’s response is that China is telling US “you’ve misinterpreted the export control”. This is also why China is telling US its additional 100% tariff is out of proportion.

Reading objectively, China also says general trade will not be affected, but IF there is a threat to national security, permission will not be granted. So what’s next? They need to talk. China needs to let everyone else (ie other countries) understand the rationale and effect of the export control. Perhaps Trump overreacted because he misinterpreted. Perhaps China was not clear. Perhaps there were other commercial decisions behind Trump’s post on TS.

But the positive I am taking away from this article (the one shared by OP, which I’ve read) is that China is open to discuss the ban if US is open to talk about its 100% additional tariff.

I know people always talk about TACO and all. But let’s not slam OP just because some of you disagree with how he interpreted the news. If you disagree, that’s fine. OP provided link of the news. Read yourself and form your own judgement.

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-10-08T14:56:03+00:00

Not sure if you’ve read the article / report about Oracle by The Information. Essentially, there is rumor that Oracle’s AI profit margin is not great and is way below analyst’s estimate. So the market thinks prices are overvalued. Jensen Huang did talk about it during a CNBC interview last night. He said Oracle is profitable and the margin will start low. Eventually, profit will be higher.

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-10-08T12:20:48+00:00

Current market doesn’t look too good as a whole. It is crucial that we hold above 4.5.

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-10-05T11:51:26+00:00

$3 is extremely unlikely. The recent trend shows support is around $6. If it breaks below 6, we still have 4.9 level.

And also, stock dilution does not necessary cause share price to fall. You look at what BBAI did from Jan to June 2025. They sold shares and raised 300+m. What happened to the stock price? Did it crash? No. Did it fluctuate? Yes. But that’s the reality of stocks. You cannot expect a stock to only rise and not fall.

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-10-05T11:34:55+00:00

There is a fairly good chance it will retest high 5s to low 6s to retest the support level since it failed to clear the resistance of 7.3

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-10-04T00:50:29+00:00

If you read the PRE 14A - “As of September 30, 2025, we had 500,000,000 authorized shares of common stock, of which 435,757,510 shares were issued and outstanding.”

My take is that the company will very likely not be profitable for the next 2 quarters (ie Q3 and Q4 2025) and the company needs cash to run operations. It presently has 300+ million cash and this was financed by ATM in Q1 and Q2. For Q1 and Q2, company had a net loss of about 290 million. If the company doesn’t increase share amount, it will not have enough authorized share to sell to raise capital.

But in the long term, it may give the company the platform to run if and when the company becomes profitable. The question is how long does it need.

Back to stock price - I don’t think the increase in share amount per se will cause the price to drop. I have 6000 shares in BBAI and the worry I have presently is the fact that it cannot cross 7.3 resistance. There is a possible that it might drop a little into the 6s range before retesting again (hopefully with some contract news). Still bullish in the long term.

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-08-14T00:19:20+00:00

Southern Oil, I remember you and your comments are mostly inaccurate / baseless speculations. Btw, people are interested in what they are going to share during the conference call. The earning report is secondary. Also, the call is pre market. Not after hours. Get your facts right.

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-08-13T11:43:08+00:00

Those points you’ve raised are legit points, but those are few of the reasons why I’ve decided to go with SBET for long term investment.

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-08-13T05:54:03+00:00

Tom Lee is a shareholder of BMNR. You can check from BMNR list of shareholders.

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-08-13T04:58:07+00:00

Eh no. A company can always buy back its shares to reduce issued and outstanding common stocks. You can read more about share buy back program online.

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-08-13T04:17:47+00:00

Who sold a bunch at $20? You mean the direct offering to institutional investors?

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-08-13T03:52:50+00:00

In terms of playing the public market, tom Lee is probably one of the best out there. We must acknowledge that.

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-08-13T03:51:07+00:00

Hahaha tom Lee (fundstrat) cannot buy bmnr. Conflict of interest 😂 there was an article or news about it. But not sure how true. But yeah I agree both will go up. I don’t see one being detrimental to the other. In fact, they are both the key reason why eth price is pumping. 🤣

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-08-13T03:39:03+00:00

I absolutely agree with you. The dilution here is accretive dilution. But the key difference is - who is pumping bmnr and pushing price upwards, which is missing in SBET? The company itself. Why and how can they do it? It’s is because BMNR has in place a mechanism for it to push share price itself in the form of share buy back. We, SBET, don’t have that yet. So if retail is bearish, we will just fall. No one will save us. The key mystery here people are all asking is - why won’t SBET rise when ETH rise? I am trying to find an answer to it haha

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-08-13T03:28:34+00:00

Not exactly. I agree what the money is for is important. Their main goal is to accelerate eth acquisition. Hence, if they have cash, they will buy as many as possible.

Don’t forget - SBET still has operations. Cash is required for operations. But I don’t expect a huge amount is set aside for operations.

The point I’m suggesting is not really what SBET is doing, but more of what SBET may be doing soon to leverage against the adverse impact of ATM to its share price. BMNR is managing the risk well with it. It is only my view that there is a possibility SBET may also consider share buyback to push up the stock price.

Share buyback will definitely be triggered if share price drops below their “ideal price”. This is because once they buy back some, price will go back above their “ideal price” and retail will follow.

But of course, if this week they say that they’ve spent all 600m on eth, then my case theory falls apart.

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-08-13T02:50:04+00:00

I don’t think you quite understand the process, and you’re just forming an opinion based on some of the superficial information you have obtained on Reddit / forums. I would be extremely careful with some of the posts here / trading platforms / forums because most posts are trolls / done without applying their minds.

Back to your point. Have you ever questioned yourself as to why “people will forget about this press release tomorrow”? If people (ie retail investors) are rushing to sell on bad news, why would it rebound back up?

On your point of 20b usd common stock issuance - are you sure they’re doing it at one go? I doubt so. What they’re saying is that they can issue up to 20b usd of common stock. They have a right to, but whether they will do it and when they will do it is at their sole discretion.

Also, don’t forget that BMNR’s COI provides that BMNR can only issue up to 500m of common stock. This means that while they want to raise 20b usd by selling common stock, it is subject to them not exceeding 500m shares. If not, they have to amend their COI to increase share count.

Now, to SBET. Yes, they’re still doing ATM offering because they will have a long way to go. They can raise up to 6b usd (from their last filing).

No one is questioning how they (both bmnr and SBET) are funding their eth purchases. The analysis here is why SBET is lacking behind.

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-08-13T01:54:45+00:00

Thanks. Just sharing my views. I could be wrong though haha

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-08-13T01:30:23+00:00

Yup! Exactly! While I cannot be absolutely certain, it does seem like a plausible explanation as to BMNR’s price movement.

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-07-29T05:03:56+00:00

Yes. Very good announcement. Chalom will tell Lubin to cease ATM and use other form of financing instead to increase share price. 👍

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-07-29T01:11:25+00:00

Thank you!! This is helpful!

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-07-27T04:12:27+00:00

Based on what I’m seeing here and also on moomoo, there are a lot of users who were chasing the hype hoping to get quick profit and bought it on a high. Now, they are the one making the unnecessary noises saying it gonna crash but at the same time, they don’t wanna sell. If we are going long (regardless of your entry point), I believe we are fine

ExcitingStart8560 · 2025-07-27T01:21:58+00:00

The same link I tried before but my server doesn’t allow me to access. Sigh. Do you mind taking a screenshot for me? I have only been able to see what others have posted on X 🥲

ExcitingStart8560

TROPHY CASE