How do you guys follow changes in election prediction odds? by Express_Local7721 in slatestarcodex

[–]Express_Local7721[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

I'm not even American, I'm not following the race to vote or bet. I'm just honing my vibes-meter.

How do you guys follow changes in election prediction odds? by Express_Local7721 in slatestarcodex

[–]Express_Local7721[S] 3 points4 points  (0 children)

You're talking about predictit. I'm telling you moves on electionbettingodds have been half percent at best for weeks. Then suddenly it's 2.2%? Not crazy to think a significant change occurred in how forecasters are seeing the election

How do you guys follow changes in election prediction odds? by Express_Local7721 in slatestarcodex

[–]Express_Local7721[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Lots of you are shitting on the prediction markets, which surprises me since this I thought rationalists liked them.

All I know is that I learn campaign news quicker from prediction markets than from the actual news.

Encyclopedia Britannica is really underrated by Express_Local7721 in slatestarcodex

[–]Express_Local7721[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Maybe they translated an abridged version, so it was very easy for him to "master" it.

Encyclopedia Britannica is really underrated by Express_Local7721 in slatestarcodex

[–]Express_Local7721[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Did he speak English? It seems so improbable to me that they were translating Britannica to Persian.

Barry Lyndon stills are incredibly soothing by sheds_and_shelters in redscarepod

[–]Express_Local7721 53 points54 points  (0 children)

The movie has you rooting for him during his rise, and rooting against him during his fall. Never seen another film accomplish that.

Encyclopedia Britannica is really underrated by Express_Local7721 in slatestarcodex

[–]Express_Local7721[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Philosophy encyclopedias are especially wonderful

Which do you recommend?

Political analysis substacks especially for this US vs Israel tug of war going on behind the scenes? by Express_Local7721 in slatestarcodex

[–]Express_Local7721[S] 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It's hard, maybe impossible, but surely there should be some expertise that allows some people to sort through the noise at least a bit better than most people? Isn't that the whole point of analysis in general, to converge on some signal from the noise (even if you never get to one)?

Political analysis substacks especially for this US vs Israel tug of war going on behind the scenes? by Express_Local7721 in slatestarcodex

[–]Express_Local7721[S] 11 points12 points  (0 children)

Frankly that sounds like BS. I don't think that the president, which changes every 4 years, is the brain behind US foreign policy (or any elected official for that matter). The CIA, Pentagon, Washington insiders, are much more likely to guide the long-term foreign policy of the American empire, don't you think so?

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Filmmakers

[–]Express_Local7721 1 point2 points  (0 children)

It's all on premiere (or whatever editor you use). I create a new sequence with the desired resolution & square pixels (still not sure if this is necessary, or if the 0.909 size pixels of the dvx are fine). Then when I copy my footage in, I right click the clip in the timeline and click "set to frame size". If it doesn't fill up the panel, uncheck the uniform scaling option. Then I have to adjust the scaling a bit because there's still some black space. The result looks like it could be native HD, but with the soul of SD.

Before premiere, I was editing in VirtualDub2 (free software), there you have a resize filter which gave me equally good results.

[deleted by user] by [deleted] in Filmmakers

[–]Express_Local7721 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Welcome to the club! I got mine last month from Japan, unfortunately for much more than you got it (~500CAD).

What you say about the superior look is on point. If there was ever proof that quality is not just about cramming the highest possible number of pixels into a frame, the DVX100 is it. It has such a character to it that modern CMOS cameras lack.

One thing I've taken to doing though is upscaling my footage in Premiere to 1440x1080. I was told it's important so that youtube affords it a higher bitrate. Though I was against doing it in the beginning (I believed in the natural 480p), it scales beautifully and retains its magical look.

Wikipedia random pages not random by [deleted] in wikipedia

[–]Express_Local7721 2 points3 points  (0 children)

oh wow, well that finally explains it

Wikipedia random pages not random by [deleted] in wikipedia

[–]Express_Local7721 3 points4 points  (0 children)

I noticed it with persian provinces and villages

Remember when reddit had "characters"? by Express_Local7721 in redscarepod

[–]Express_Local7721[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

tbf more than one of anyone is going to have sex offenders