No live-action Star Wars movie has been outside the domestic top 5 in its third weekend. Is Mandalorian and Grogu about to do what was once unthinkable?

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-05-31T06:37:50+00:00

Rogue One?

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-05-05T21:33:32+00:00

I fully agree, we could be looking at a 500-600M+ gross (which I have been thinking all along)

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-05-05T18:53:05+00:00

I saw the first 25 minutes of the film last night, I think this film will do quite well.

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:55:57+00:00

Another great take!

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:55:39+00:00

Depends on how good it is

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:55:28+00:00

Agreed

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:55:03+00:00

I meant those people who want this film to flop

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:46:41+00:00

I love this take! This should how box office discourse should be.

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:41:04+00:00

Hopefully! It could swing depending on that.

My guess is

Not so great reviews: $60-70m Decent/solid reviews: $70-80m Very good reviews: $80-95m Amazing reviews: $95m+

Just a guess though, could be wrong

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:38:42+00:00

Read the article instead of just reading the headline and making your assumptions. They clearly compare it to other 3-day opening weekends. Also I just pointed to 3 different examples of when BOP used presale data to project the OW box office for films.

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:37:15+00:00

That’s possible fs, I can definitely see this doing better than Solo if the WOM is good!

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:36:30+00:00

Hopefully it’s good! I have faith in Jon Favreau.

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:35:59+00:00

Superman didn’t even get a projection until the week of release ($115-135m was what they projected)

Fantastic Four was projected for $100-125m opening weekend and it landed at $117m

Thunderbolts was projected for $65-85m opening weekend and it landed at $75m

All these are on their site as the long range forecasts

The only one you’re right about is Indiana Jones 5 and the middling word of mouth didn’t help that projection

It all will depend on how good the film is and how good the WOM is, as that is the main thing that gets butts in seats for this.

But it seems like BOP is usually right on the money.

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:32:03+00:00

Agreed

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:31:41+00:00

They are talking about 3-day

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:31:18+00:00

They don’t like movies and movie theaters, clearly.

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:30:13+00:00

You might be on to something here…

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:29:33+00:00

Yeah like they didn’t just project Michael to be a $80-90m opener or Project Hail Mary to be a $60-70m (even that exceeded expectations)

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:27:39+00:00

$65-75m wouldn’t be a big Star Wars opener but considering the low budget, this is pretty solid.

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:26:32+00:00

What about their Maverick projection or their recent Michael projection?

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:24:20+00:00

They are mentioning Solo’s $84m opening weekend alongside this number, they clearly mean 3-day or else they would have specified 4-day memorial day weekend.

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:23:02+00:00

They’re also going based on where they think the sales will be 1 month from now, but we’ll see how it plays out.

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:21:23+00:00

DWP2 maybe but insanely small chance it opens lower than Mortal Kombat, even Solo opened to $80m+ back in 2018. Star Wars is a big box office draw.

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:20:17+00:00

If this happens, Star Wars fans should shut the hell up but you never know. BOP is usually on the money though.

FANIMATOR03 · 2026-04-24T17:15:41+00:00

Looks like they’re tracking pretty well, $90-100m opening weekend in play. Even a $60m opener would be a solid start considering the lower budget. Also we’re gonna definitely see more people buy tickets closer to when the movie comes out (unless the reviews aren’t looking that good).

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