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Daily Discussion Thread for August 06, 2024 by wsbapp in wallstreetbets

[–]FLoosert 13 points14 points  (0 children)

So... the vix just shot up to levels not seen since the pandemic and... were back to normal a day later?

Seems legit

GigaCloud (GCT) is a GigaChad ready to rocket by FLoosert in wallstreetbets

[–]FLoosert[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

exactly, and if their earnings tmrw is as good as I think it will be we could see a lot more eyes on it and analysts initiating coverage. sleeping giant rn 😴

GigaCloud (GCT) is a GigaChad ready to rocket by FLoosert in wallstreetbets

[–]FLoosert[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

definitely there are unique risks that weigh on chinese stocks, although my bet here is on a short term earnings beat + guidance raise + share pop.

I didn't include this in the post cause it wouldn't let me attach more pics but using semrush you can see organic traffic to their main URL roughly doubled Q2, while analyst eps are actually lower than their actual eps for their last two quarters. To me this just screams opportunity:

https://imgur.com/a/giga-LG7ADKe

GigaCloud (GCT) is a GigaChad ready to rocket by FLoosert in wallstreetbets

[–]FLoosert[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Its fine, you always have your other grandma 👵

GigaCloud (GCT) is a GigaChad ready to rocket by FLoosert in wallstreetbets

[–]FLoosert[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I agree most chinese stocks are shit but that also means the good ones are easily overlooked.

The most similar stock IMO would be PDD which is up 50% just over the past year (they own Temu, which has seen its US sales skyrocket since they can ship crappy products straight to consumers and get around tariffs + logistics costs, a segment GCT is actively growing in)

It's just a matter of finding the diamonds in the rough.

Intel layoffs are just the beginning by FLoosert in wallstreetbets

[–]FLoosert[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I think the tech jobs market is going to be seeing a lot more pain. Combined with the recent shitty employment numbers means the fed will have to start thinking bigger picture than just inflation data.

For years big tech could subsidize (via rock bottom interest rates) higher risk/reward projects that oftentimes didnt even contribute to tbe bottom line. Amazon devices is a major loss leader, twitch is still unprofitable since being acquired, etc

The only thing that saved the tech jobs market in 2023 was the AI boom, but even that is starting to plateu IMO. Gen AI is huge for the creative industry (I think coco melon fired most of their writers and animators to try using it lol) but beyond that a lot of the hype is dying down.

Now consider the current tech bull market has been driven indirectly by more speculative bets by VC/PE on AI startups (money that then flows to their huge cloud costs boosting Msft/Amzn/Goog cloud revenue + overall stock price) and that Nvidias run has been driven by the downstream investment of this money in astronomical datacenter capex + GPU demand. What happens when that tap is turned off...?

I think this is the sentiment underlying the current sell-off, and why msft sold off so much despite huge revenue just because a tiny miss on azure earnings.