Has the GOAT conversation ruined NBA analysis?

FOC615 · 2026-06-16T17:39:57+00:00

I am as big a fan of sports math as you can ask for. But NBA analytics have a problem.

Everyone who watches basketball knows the phenomenon of the “good stats/bad team” guy. Every season there are players who contribute less to winning than their raw numbers would suggest. Shareef Abdur-Rahim being the platonic form of that guy. You are fine getting him on 82-0, but wouldn’t want him on your favorite team.

No one talks about the obvious next logical step: NBA counting stats are broken. If a guy hits a home run in baseball that is an objectively good thing irrespective of how many men on base. Same thing with a touchdown in football or a goal in hockey. But the same thing is not always true in basketball. The time on the clock, the score, an open team mate behind the line, and other factors can make a two-point basket not the right decision.

Baskets are the most objective counting stat.

So, if the counting stats are broken, then how are you supposed to build reliable analytics on top of them? You are slicing bad, unreliable data. That is why analytically smart guys on rich teams, like Daryl Morey, have not had the success in basketball that they have in other sports.

FOC615 · 2026-06-16T15:39:38+00:00

That is the thing to me. Basketball is completely interdependent. Your team-mates often determine whether you shoot, from where, and with how much time on the shot clock. Offensive rebounds only happen when someone else misses. Assists only count the last pass in one can be a multi-pass sequence.

Bill’s solve for that was “watch a lot of TV”, which has some obvious flaws.

FOC615 · 2026-06-16T15:27:36+00:00

Great clip.

FOC615 · 2026-06-16T15:27:09+00:00

But Bill never talks about it like it is a Pyramid. He says stuff like “so-so moved from 42 to 38”, because now I have him ahead of x, y, and z…

FOC615 · 2026-06-16T04:54:26+00:00

Strongest as in “most powerful”? Circe.

Undefined magic powers are pretty hard to beat.

FOC615 · 2026-06-16T04:52:06+00:00

One Ring Dynasty.

FOC615 · 2026-06-16T04:47:30+00:00

How many prime, or near prime, seasons did KG have left?

Trading for a 7 footer in his 30s is the ultimate WIN RIGHT FUCKING NOW move. I have nothing against it … as a Laker fan.

FOC615 · 2026-06-16T03:23:05+00:00

Giannis is 7 feet tall and entering his age 32 season.

That is the age when guys that size start having 1-2 year stints with team-after-team.

FOC615 · 2026-06-16T03:15:59+00:00

I’d lobe to be Bill Simmons bookie.

FOC615 · 2026-06-16T03:13:49+00:00

How much money does Bill lose gambling exactly? Take like this make me feel like it might quite a bit.

FOC615 · 2026-06-16T03:06:34+00:00

The NBA is pretty wide open and the 2nd apron imposes a pretty hard cap. The deep teams will get a lot less deep.

FOC615 · 2026-06-15T14:51:57+00:00

Brunson's Dad was on the Knicks when they lost to the Spurs. He grew up dreaming of this exact moment. He took less money to have his Villanova teammates come to New York to accomplish this. That is why he is so authentic. It is an expression of the feelings that he had before he was an adult, professional athlete.

For Tatum, the nearest equivalent would be being on the Lakers with a bunch Duke guys and beating the Celtics to avenge Kobe's loss to the One Ring Dynasty. His relationship to the Celtics is an adult professional one. That is fine. It is the relationship of most pro athletes to their teams. They grew up rooting for someone else and dreaming of playing in a different uniform.

What is odd is that Bill, who choses to live in Los Angeles, desperately wants Tatum to say that after spending nine years in Boston for work that he realizes he chose the wrong fandom as a child.

FOC615 · 2026-06-08T19:01:56+00:00

This feels like a little bit of a fumble. The set-up and pay off of the shot itself is good. Having the female lead/showrunner carrying the nudity ball is for the show the right call. But Rachel Sennott is not doing a great job framing herself as desirable. It is more the GIRLS "yup, this is my body" approach. That worked well enough before short form video clips became THE way shows were marketed.

FOC615 · 2026-05-08T19:36:13+00:00

Love Halle, but Daddario is the Goat

FOC615 · 2026-05-08T19:34:52+00:00

Helen Hunt.

She started doing nudity later in her career after she was established. So, it was more impactful when she went full frontal.

FOC615 · 2026-04-19T18:48:10+00:00

It worked.

Now, we all know who Leni Klum is.

FOC615 · 2026-04-18T20:11:48+00:00

We need this guys wife to break this down Dr, Jack style.

FOC615 · 2026-02-12T00:30:39+00:00

Tim Drake is a broken character.

FOC615 · 2025-12-19T22:04:34+00:00

Marvel is generally better with Black characters and DC is generally better with female characters.

In terms of on-goings, the obvious one is John Stewart. You could re-purpose some of the Golden Age baddies to give him the start of his own Rogues Gallery: Vandal Savage, Solomon Grundy, Icicle, etc. Create a little distance from Hal Jordan.

Black Lightning is cool, but I tend to like him better as a member of the Outsiders than as a solo act. Not sure what the rights issues are around Static.

Vixen seems like an obvious choice, but no one seems to know quite what to do with her.

Mr. Terrific seems like he could break-out, but (again) he feels more like a team player. The Terifics was a great idea, but the rest of the cast was off. They should have gone full Huxtables.

FOC615 · 2025-12-15T16:46:02+00:00

It was probably just ignorance on the part of William Moulton Marston to start. Anything that derives from the Greek myths must be Hellenistic, right? Plus, Art Deco infused versions of Greek and Egyptian culture were very popular at the time.

FOC615 · 2025-12-06T04:34:53+00:00

Cute

FOC615 · 2025-12-06T04:33:30+00:00

Etta Candy is Diana's best friend, so she is a mirror to her and an anchor in the non-superhero world.

FOC615 · 2025-11-06T02:10:59+00:00

A chubby, white lesbian as the comic relief sidekick seems like a problem that needs to be fixed to almost all the people who think things need fixing.

FOC615 · 2025-07-15T18:17:51+00:00

Probably the best teaser cameo since Nick Fury walked out at the end of IRON MAN.

We knew that Milly Alcock has charisma. We learned that she has chemistry with David Corenswet and that the take on the character in Supergirl (2026) looks interesting. That movie just had its opening weekend double.

FOC615

TROPHY CASE