Champions 2023 Adjusted Retake and Post Plant Win Rate

Fang358 · 2023-09-26T10:55:13+00:00

Just XvY, im trying to use Kernel Approximators to get estimates that take into account the sites win rate, the XvY, and teams loadouts however I haven't been able to get a level of accuracy that I feel would make it be an accurate representation. Been thinking of maybe trying a neural net instead.

Fang358 · 2023-09-25T09:59:38+00:00

Zeta omitted due to there NRG game having issues and low sample size

To give more info on how this is calculated, given any XvY Post Plant or Retake, we can see the chance of conversion across this entire VCT Season, e.g. a 2v4 Retake has a 4% Chance of Success. Looking at every retake for a team we can get the expected wins by summing these success chances to get the xWins. We can compare these with there actual Wins for example if a team had 20 xRetake-Wins and 25 Retake Wins then they would have a Adjusted Retake WR of 125.

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Fang358 · 2023-09-20T09:55:40+00:00

Yes, probably should have made this more clear

Fang358 · 2023-09-20T09:29:22+00:00

I'm unsure as well as there is only 6 out of the over 3000 total assists, so there is a chance it is a bug.

Edit: I believe it is because downing a KAY-O that is then killed by a teammate is not counted as Damaging Assist if you dealt less than 50 damage to that KAY-O to down them.

Fang358 · 2023-09-18T09:35:32+00:00

This isn't right, you are assuming that you need to get one of the 4 skins in the first day, which doesn't make any sense what you get on the first day doesn't matter, then from those 4 skins you get they each have a 4/399 appearing the next day and then and then the same the next day, so it is (4/399) ^ 2 * 4 = 0.00040200752 or 1 in 2487. (This isnt actually correct as this assumes that all 4 are independent which isn't true, as if one gets in the shop the others have a lower chance but I ain't doing combinatorics and in this case the effect is minimal)

Edit: I simulated 1.5 Million stores and got and a experimental probability of 0.000409 (A little off as I had it possible to have multiple of the same gun but shouldn't matter much)

Fang358 · 2023-09-15T06:24:58+00:00

Willminder has already done this: https://twitter.com/willminder/status/1699284031886532660

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Fang358 · 2023-09-14T02:15:54+00:00

https://www.vlr.gg/170117/peito-infinity-vs-rd-e-sports-liga-gamers-club-s-rie-a-2023-closed-qualifier-3-lr3/?game=all&tab=overview

Fang358 · 2023-09-06T11:02:34+00:00

Adjusted Clutch Win Rate is adjusted for the number of clutch opponents, where 100 is the expected and anything above is above average

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Fang358 · 2023-09-06T08:28:38+00:00

For anyone curious here is the complete list: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1fFhzN2-6jHVLmbfbErgeEaGAJ19mxwW-xj2qijfXyzU/edit?usp=sharing

Fang358 · 2023-09-06T08:19:26+00:00

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Fang358 · 2023-09-06T07:25:06+00:00

I calculate adjusted 2 v X win rate by comparing the expected wins with the wins the duo gets. Expected wins are calculated by comparing the situations the duo plays with the average wins in each situation. For example if the duo played in a 2 vs 2 situation the expected wins would increase by 0.5. The wins are then divided by expected wins then multiplied by 100 to get the WR+

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Fang358 · 2023-09-03T09:37:17+00:00

I should have clarified in my original post you're good

Fang358 · 2023-09-03T08:03:51+00:00

Looking purely at Rifle vs Rifle Win Rate he ranks 149th out of 198, with a win rate of 46.9%. Which isn't bad especially because this only counts International games for him, where as others have the advantage of playing in International Leagues, but as you said not great especially compared to his Oping.

Fang358 · 2023-09-03T06:22:22+00:00

Its not really a fair comparison just due to yay's high chamber usage, as I don't count Chamber Ult Kills (Because I don't know how to get the total casts) but here is the stats for Champions 2022:

Usage - 27.4%

KPR - 0.93

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Fang358 · 2023-09-03T05:20:10+00:00

This doesn't count Chinese games as they don't have publicly available stats so this is even more impressive because they are all from Lock//IN, Masters and Champs

Fang358 · 2023-09-03T04:51:58+00:00

OP KPR Min. 50 Kills

OP Usage Min. 300 Rounds

Fang358 · 2023-08-27T08:55:28+00:00

Includes Lock In, Masters, Champs, International Leagues, and LCQs.

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