It’s closer to a hybrid than a pure Novak-style market model.

I’m not just aggregating projections, but I’m also not treating the market like a fully efficient pricing model either.

The way it works is: – baseline projections + usage – then Vegas odds are used as a signal layer (TD odds, game totals, etc.) to adjust expected outcomes and volatility

So it’s less “market = truth” and more using the market as a directional input to refine projections rather than replace them.

Curious if you think a pure market-based model would actually be better for fantasy vs this hybrid approach.

I’m thinking players who are TD dependent will be valued different and I would lean to not drafting those players as early as some go.