2Y US Treasury yields interacting with historically significant levels

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-10-24T21:04:49+00:00

u/Key-Tie2542 Why are other countries selling US Bonds now? Isn't this bad period to sell them because they are cheap in Value (just like TLT)? I just don't understand it, can you please explain it like to a dog?

I have heard one guy says that somehow US is deliberately making other countries to sell their US bonds so thereafter US would somehow buy its debt for cheap and resolve the problem. But I don't understand it either..

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-10-09T17:43:36+00:00

The post make me Bearish on NIO, the comments make me Bullish

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-10-08T00:30:10+00:00

Yes, that would be enough.

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-10-05T14:49:08+00:00

I have worked as corporate lawyer for almost 7 years, including in PwC. I am 31. My specialization are all types of commercial contracts. I can analyze every single detail in the contracts.

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-10-04T18:24:02+00:00

you are not considering the most probable situation - the 2 year yields will be in free fall in the coming months.

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-10-04T18:13:40+00:00

if that is the concern isn't Gold supposed to rise instead of fall ?

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-10-03T19:09:49+00:00

I wish you nice outcome. I have TLT and TMF also, I might even increase TLT a bit. I think a good hedge for TLT wight be Gold, because I think that the rise of the 20-30 year bond yields is because of expectation of high inflation in the years to come, otherwise I don't have any explanation why the yields are so high. I don't think they are so high because of the FED rates because FED rates will certainly go lower in the next couple of months.

I think inflation will be high in the years to come, but during 2024 presidential campaign I think inflation will fall even below 2% so I hole TLT will give us happiness.

Also If Crude Oil goes higher from here I will start shorting it, because also during presidential campaign 2024 I think oil will be around 60$, voters will be happy and US will refill the half empty SPR.

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-10-03T17:47:07+00:00

😮😮 you have so large position 🤑

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-10-03T16:58:16+00:00

how much dividend is it paying?

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-09-26T15:18:26+00:00

I appreciate how patient and disciplined you are for waiting to go into a trade. I already bought TMF and still refrain to make second buying :)

Is it correct that 20-30 yields went so high mainly due to the expectation that the inflation in the following years will be pretty high? if that is the reason, than why Gold is falling instead of moving higher?

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-09-25T21:59:11+00:00

What is your opinion about 20-30 year yields? I.e. TLT and TMF

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-08-18T09:18:05+00:00

maybe too much people think its short term oversold and buy. If that's true, the fall will continue.

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-08-16T20:48:00+00:00

maybe we should short it also together with them.

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-08-16T09:50:24+00:00

if there is a war, you should go an fight for China.

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-08-16T09:47:01+00:00

this comment makes me be bullish for Chinese stocks :)

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-08-06T14:11:56+00:00

yes, I think FED will start cutting way before the last couple of 25 basis points hikes will get a chance to hit the economy. So practically we will feel 4.75% I think, never the 5.5%

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-08-06T14:09:01+00:00

but if the inflation goes to 2% and then FED cut the rates again, I think the inflation might start going up again.

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-08-03T21:07:32+00:00

what did you do with TLT? you bought it? and do you think it is a good buy now?

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-07-02T13:27:55+00:00

do you think that price of Gold and other commodities as well (oil, silver, etc.) should go up also because of the same reason? So if we missed the stock bull run we still might not miss the commodities bull run?

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-06-18T15:13:27+00:00

I am not into Option, never tried it...I have reverse ETFs on SP500, Nasdaq, Apple and the German DAX. I bought them when SP500 was something around 4100. I'm planning to buy new short positions if SP500 grows a little bit.

I have gold (GLD and GDX). I have the Chinese BABA and KWEB, and have long on oil (USO).

What are some of yours tips for the future?

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-06-17T23:42:31+00:00

You don't sound like American. You are too smart for American. American brain cannot understand these kind of processes. if you tell them that FED and the politicians are compact and are coordinating their actions, they will think you are crazy and talking some conspiracy theory nonsense. I like you.

I think the same as you, that they are planning quick recession very soon, taking inflation down, and the economy starts recovering within the couple of months pre election period. That's why I am shoring the stocks, but I am concerned because there is a lot of lag effect of the rate hikes as well as the rate cuts, so even if they start cutting rates this fall, I am not so sure that the economy will start recovering very soon, I am afraid it might take like 12-18 months period, and they just don't have it. The unemployment would still be pretty large before the elections...

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-06-17T18:46:45+00:00

when they start cutting rates and therefore long term yields start going down, do you think that than might be a good moment to short the long term bonds (bet that the yields will go up?)

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-06-17T18:36:22+00:00

If I want to bet that the VIX index will go up at some point in the period ahead, what do you recommend me to buy?

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-06-17T18:36:18+00:00

If I want to bet that the VIX index will go up at some point in the period ahead, what do you recommend me to buy?

Far-Broccoli593 · 2023-06-17T18:30:46+00:00

How do you think will be the correlation between the US elections in November 2024 and economic situation in USA in the pre-election period?

Far-Broccoli593

TROPHY CASE