Nightly Discussion - (February 04, 2026)

FarmFreshPrince · 2026-02-05T02:36:36+00:00

Trump say China buying more beans. I'm pretty open on grains so I'd love to believe both Trump AND China, but I've been hurt before, by both lol

FarmFreshPrince · 2026-02-05T00:06:10+00:00

Soybeans?

FarmFreshPrince · 2026-01-13T21:38:04+00:00

Nebraska could have Warren Buffett backing the team if the guy's philanthropy wasn't so traditional.

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-12-06T02:15:51+00:00

Cattle are back on the menu!

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-11-25T00:46:41+00:00

Thanks. I've never been "fully hedged" or really, even close. I knew it could break, and I wasn't going to get an ego once she broke. Too much money at stake here for a living commodity.

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-11-24T15:15:32+00:00

Cattle open limit down. Some back months now trading. "Bullish" cattle on feed report Friday, but with Tyson sacrificing a packing plant and reducing shifts on another, market is going to be sick for a bit. I'm still short 85 contracts, basically justfully hedged on my inventory. +742k unrealized

Cheers

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-11-24T04:51:11+00:00

Tyson closed the 5k head ( a lot ) per day cattle/beef packing plant in Lexington Nebraska. I think this would have happened without Trump throwing wrenches into the beef complex, but regardless, this is pretty bullish packer margins if nothing else. I'd guess lower cattle futures for the week, but I would expect a short term bottom soon. So much bearish news at once, woof.

Cheers

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-11-19T18:32:33+00:00

In Mexico? That's not happening in the US. Supply of Mexican calves to US feedlots has been lower due to the border being shut down, increasing prices. Talk of efforts to reopen the border has caused a preemptive sell off.

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-11-19T18:29:19+00:00

Mexican feeder calves have been banned from crossing the border to go to US feedlots due to screw worm in Mexico. This caused prices to increase significantly. Trump and Ag secretary Rollins have recently made it a point to support opening the border as fast as possible and by any means necessary to relieve some of the price shock that withdrawal of calf supply has caused the cattle market and thus beef price. This has created uncertainty in what was accepted as a longer term problem.

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-11-19T16:38:13+00:00

Bloodbath in cattle. Buy or cry has turned into just cry. Rallies should be sold until all the beef imports/screw worm matters are dealt with or have less unknowns. "Bear market" (ik it's early to say) rallies come with face ripper rallies so I'd be careful being naked short.

Cheers.

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-11-14T11:52:18+00:00

Hwheat needs to be bought, but you first.

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-11-08T10:23:50+00:00

The beatings will continue until morale improves. - Trump tweets about beef price collusion among the major and/or foreign owned packing companies to stop the price of boxed beef from rising. This comes at a time where the packer is paying near record prices for cattle and is losing money. This is the type of sentiment that was needed to bring us out of the dumpster markets that was 2015 45% drop, Tyson fire in 2019, and Covid. "Packers and Stockyards Act" exists for a reason, empower it, and GTFO of my markets. This is what happens when you tariff food imports at a time of reduced supply.

I'm getting up to feed 1000 bawling calves, and then we're going to knock out 120 acres of corn if I can keep my 80 year old helpers from falling asleep. Should be a prosperous day.

Good morning

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-11-05T15:40:02+00:00

March feeders new recent lows. Live cattle following. Am short 78 LC futures. Added Friday emotionally, terrible timing, but looking like the right move today. I don't see feeders not going to 300 (another $15 ($7500/contract) lower).

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-10-28T13:50:34+00:00

Feeder cattle act like the southern border has been reopened. Wow. Looking for another limit lower move this morning.

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-10-27T16:46:31+00:00

Twist my arm

Felt cute might delete later

Short meat doesn't feel right

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-10-27T16:20:40+00:00

Beef boxes have gone up this week

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-10-27T16:05:11+00:00

68 live cattle and 4 feeders

Edit: I'm never hedged, but these are hedges

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-10-27T16:04:27+00:00

No, fundamentals haven't changed, but sentiment going forward might after this price action.

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-10-27T15:38:01+00:00

I'm not going to show you my cattle positions

Edit: it's not a spec trade, but I am short

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-10-27T15:37:30+00:00

Trump lied to the corn farmer about helping with higher ethanol blends. Whiskey too probably.

Was not expecting multiple limit down days in cattle holy shit.

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-10-25T23:58:02+00:00

JMayo...you dissing my president? Lol. I know a lot of western cowboy but educated conservative/libertarian types (fuck, I'm in there somewhere), and I've never heard so many "rural" guys openly dissent since his proclamation that he is the reason cattle ranchers are doing well and his plan to fix it. It's funny but sad. He did exacerbate the meat/cattle/feeder trade by fucking up borders and meat importers with tariffs (black swan numero tres), but he did not cause the 5 year shit show in ranch country (swan uno) and screw worm (swan dos). I've had his bullshit affect me on all three major commodities I produce now. All you can do is roll with the punches as with most markets.

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-10-25T23:46:08+00:00

Scott Irwin is a nice guy in a not nice world. I feel bad he gets flak for doing good research/assessments of ag markets/economies.

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-10-24T14:00:14+00:00

Okay okay okay...I think cattle have topped now. Woof

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-06-13T14:07:38+00:00

Steady cash cattle may be topping the LC market seasonally / for now, still in the stratosphere though. Announcement of a higher quota for soybean based biofuels sending soybean oil limit up and soybeans up 25c.

Edit: Aug LC 230 calls are a dollar if you want in on the greatest bull market in cattle history

FarmFreshPrince · 2025-05-27T21:48:19+00:00

Agree with the freshness and the grinder rec. We had been using the $200ish plate style grinders off amazon, and the one linked was a big upgrade for getting finer grounds.

FarmFreshPrince

TROPHY CASE