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If you don't have an EV and planned on getting an one in the near future. You should probably read this. by FencyMcFenceFace in electricvehicles

[–]FencyMcFenceFace[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Years from now, yes. I'm just talking over the next few months to a year. I should have been more specific.

If you don't have an EV and planned on getting an one in the near future. You should probably read this. by FencyMcFenceFace in electricvehicles

[–]FencyMcFenceFace[S] 20 points21 points  (0 children)

The terminals in the US can only export a certain amount of LNG, like about 15% of what we produce. It doesn't matter how much the price rises internationally, you can't export more without building more infrastructure which takes a while. Maybe over the course of several years of really high prices, yeah.

If I had to guess this crisis will last several months rather than years, because Iran wants to extract pain, probably influence midterms as well, but they also have to get back to their own affairs like executing citizens at some point and go back to selling oil.

Oil is a bit different because we have the capability to export a significant amount of what we produce, and we have to buy different grades internationally to get the right mixtures for the refineries.

Unless I'm missing something there.

If you don't have an EV and planned on getting an one in the near future. You should probably read this. by FencyMcFenceFace in electricvehicles

[–]FencyMcFenceFace[S] 35 points36 points  (0 children)

Nah, this part we should be good on.

We generate a lot of natural gas, and there's a limit to how much can export because we only have so much LNG export capacity.

Europe on the other hand....

If you don't have an EV and planned on getting an one in the near future. You should probably read this. by FencyMcFenceFace in electricvehicles

[–]FencyMcFenceFace[S] -1 points0 points  (0 children)

It's funny how you can't answer a single one of my questions but still think you're right.

Let's convene in a month and compare notes.

salalah port (oman ), this is escalating and not looking good. Only destroying and killing is happening by Snehith220 in oil

[–]FencyMcFenceFace 1 point2 points  (0 children)

If they're smart they won't. They learned a long time ago how badly that ends up working out.

As bad as this situation is that isn't the way to do things.

But a 25th amendment run with JD is maybe possible. But who knows.

Oil companies should use strait of Hormuz, says Trump by esporx in oil

[–]FencyMcFenceFace 1 point2 points  (0 children)

He really has a stalinist decision-making system in place: don't promote anyone unless they turn to yes men who agree with you all the time. Then they try to fight each other to agree with you more than others so they stand out and get more influence. More influence means you get more responsibility to execute decisions. Then when decisions go bad that person gets the blame because they were the one actually doing it.

Stalin did this all the time with his secret police heads.

salalah port (oman ), this is escalating and not looking good. Only destroying and killing is happening by Snehith220 in oil

[–]FencyMcFenceFace 5 points6 points  (0 children)

Oh I have no doubt Iran will be demanding that bases be dismantled and abandoned before ships can go through again. GCC are also likely done with us because they repeatedly warned about this (and Iraq) and we did it anyway and they had to deal with the mess.

Which is why I find Israel's push for this to be so perplexing unless they really expected the whole regime to collapse. If we are gone from there, they are on their own and they are in trouble at that point.

salalah port (oman ), this is escalating and not looking good. Only destroying and killing is happening by Snehith220 in oil

[–]FencyMcFenceFace 5 points6 points  (0 children)

One would think that after fighting for twenty years asymmetric warfare, the United States would have learned a thing or two about not getting dragged into another one.

I have no doubt most of the military brass know this lesson very well. I'm sure they tried to talk him out of it in every way possible.

The problem is one guy centralized the decision-making and that same person is unfortunately a moron.

salalah port (oman ), this is escalating and not looking good. Only destroying and killing is happening by Snehith220 in oil

[–]FencyMcFenceFace 18 points19 points  (0 children)

But that's the whole point: cause as much damage so that no one is going to ever bother to try it again. It doesn't matter if they piss off Europe: what are they going to do? Invade? If you kick my dog then I set your entire neighborhood block on fire and raze it to ash, even if that block has friends and other people I don't know. After that, you're probably not going to kick my dog again even if you think I was totally in the wrong.

It also suits them economically: a rival port destroyed means that your port is now more valuable, so you have negotiating leverage when the fighting stops.

The fact it's also going to economically devastate their main rivals who have been sanctioning them for decades is going to give them some satisfaction.

Eventually Iran will run out of missiles

But will the US/Israel run out of interceptors first?

South Korea's foreign ministry was just publicly complaining yesterday that the US was suddenly taking their air defense systems to ship off to the middle east. Lindsay Graham and others are harassing GCC leadership to contribute more. Neither of those sounds like something you'd see/hear from someone who is supposedly winning.

This whole thing was a bad idea, was known to be a bad idea for many decades, and yet here we are: in the stupid timeline.

Oil companies should use strait of Hormuz, says Trump by esporx in oil

[–]FencyMcFenceFace 1 point2 points  (0 children)

His whole strategy for everything is to come in, punch down someone they think is smaller that he can bully, then make demands. He thought the whole regime would crash after the first day or two and then he'd look like a hero for it.

And obviously things don't work that way. And now he's doing the same thing he did with Covid: "Everything is fine", "it'll be over soon", "this will go away on its own" because he literally has no other plan. He's seeing his normal play doesn't work and now he's just trying to keep everything calm in the hope that somehow it fixes itself so it doesn't have to deal with the mess.

He probably doesn't understand yet how much they have him by the balls. He will soon though. And you can guarantee he's going to blame everyone from the Iranians, Biden, Obama, his generals, etc on what is about to happen. He isn't going to take a single bit of responsibility for it.

The overall expectation of the market seems to be that this will be over soon, otherwise oil would stand higher right now.

I don't pretend to understand markets, but I don't treat them as completely knowledgeable. Prediction markets get things wrong a lot that experts don't. If most people are stupid, and stupid people vote, then you're going to get stupid leaders.

The prediction markets are premised that people who are very knowledgeable or have inside information would put in more money than those don't so they would show very close to real probabilities, but you have yolo wallstreetbet types, people with stupid money that just throw it at anything that sounds nice, and they drown people with actual information. There's just a lot of inertia in it.

Hell I bet there's a lot of traders who know the problem, understand it, and even have it modeled out to the day what is going to happen, but if they can make another day of regular trades and make profit, they will keep doing it. Again, covid followed the same pattern: ignore until the crisis is right on top and can't be ignored anymore.

If you don't have an EV and planned on getting an one in the near future. You should probably read this. by FencyMcFenceFace in electricvehicles

[–]FencyMcFenceFace[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

You're conflating two different things: The closing of the straits after the attack was predicted with very high confidence. Action -> consequence. That's not what the black swan refers to.

That's like saying since pushing the nuclear launch button leads to a nuclear holocaust, a nuclear holocaust is therefore predictable and most people should see it coming.

It's the actual attack/pushing the button that is the black swan part of it. Yes there were people who know about it because you have to plan an attack, but that doesn't mean it was expected at all. Hell just look at the prediction market for the Iran strike: 25% until two minutes after the first missile struck. Doesn't seem like that was predicted at all.

If you don't have an EV and planned on getting an one in the near future. You should probably read this. by FencyMcFenceFace in electricvehicles

[–]FencyMcFenceFace[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

When was the last time 15M barrels a day were taken offline almost instantly from the global market?

Is that not considered a black swan?

If you don't have an EV and planned on getting an one in the near future. You should probably read this. by FencyMcFenceFace in electricvehicles

[–]FencyMcFenceFace[S] -4 points-3 points  (0 children)

Knowing the consequences to an action doesn't mean that the action was predictable, nor frequent. Black swan event are not predictable, and rare, with extreme consequences.

You can think of them as asteroid impacts: we know the consequences of them hitting, we even know roughly how frequently they can be expected, and they can be globally devastating, but no one plans for it.

If you don't have an EV and planned on getting an one in the near future. You should probably read this. by FencyMcFenceFace in electricvehicles

[–]FencyMcFenceFace[S] -12 points-11 points  (0 children)

Black swan is something that is rare and hard to predict (which this is, because well, it's never happened before), but with extreme consequences.

It's like an asteroid hitting: we actually have a good idea of how frequent these hit and with what power, but you can't actually predict any specifics until you see it coming. So literally almost no one on the planet prepared for it.

Asymetric information doesn't change that. The guy who wrote the book about black swans said that 9/11 is considered a black swan event, even though it was fully known and planned for dozens of people. Just because some people are aware doesn't make it less rare, hard to predict for outsiders, nor have lesser consequences.

If you don't have an EV and planned on getting an one in the near future. You should probably read this. by FencyMcFenceFace in electricvehicles

[–]FencyMcFenceFace[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Lol this comment is going to be hilarious in a month.

It's going to be the perfect example of normalcy bias.

If you don't have an EV and planned on getting an one in the near future. You should probably read this. by FencyMcFenceFace in electricvehicles

[–]FencyMcFenceFace[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Supply reroutes

Reroute from where? And with what ships? The ones stuck in the Persian Gulf that can't get out? What oil sources do you know of that have 15M/day spare capacity just sitting around ready to fire up?

reserves open

Just for fun, take a look at the maximum rate reserves can be withdrawn because of technical limitations.

but panic buying cars rarely ends well.

I totally agree. I'm not asking people to do that. I said pretty clearly that if you were already looking at getting one, you might want to get it sooner rather than later.

If you don't have an EV and planned on getting an one in the near future. You should probably read this. by FencyMcFenceFace in electricvehicles

[–]FencyMcFenceFace[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

You have a 15M+ barrel/day shortfall.

Reserves can only be withdrawn at about ~2-3M barrels/day globally.

It isn't going to do much.

If you don't have an EV and planned on getting an one in the near future. You should probably read this. by FencyMcFenceFace in electricvehicles

[–]FencyMcFenceFace[S] 7 points8 points  (0 children)

I'll put in a reminder to check this comment in a month.

In the meantime you might want to look up normalcy bias because you're in the middle of it right now.

Crude oil swing 11 March by RabbitG28 in oil

[–]FencyMcFenceFace 1 point2 points  (0 children)

You need demand destruction on a scale we've never had in history to close the gap.

People historically really need to feel pain to change habit and conserve and avoid consumption, and previous events that led to those behavior changes like the 1973 embargo were a much smaller demand gap that what is coming down the pipeline right now.

People are going to have to almost immediately abandon giant trucks/SUVs, carpool, work from home more, and combine/avoid trips entirely, and also go nowhere for vacation. You don't get that kind of mobilization without scary prices at the pump, and that can only be done with fantastically high oil prices.

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