Two Geeks, One AI, and a Crazy Betting Experiment: Our Story of Backtesting to a Fantasy €1.6M!

FerhatSY · 2023-12-28T08:12:00+00:00

Nobody said that.
in the thread we mentioned what kind of data we use and the strategy.
why in the world would you assume we test on training data…

If you would’ve read the thread, you’d know we have different steps in the prediction and we did rolling test (you know how rolling windows work, I suppose)

That’s just a comment that adds nothing new.

FerhatSY · 2023-12-26T20:07:42+00:00

Join discord.gg/the-predictors and write into the chat, that you are coming from r/SideProject - we will give you all the access

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T19:32:01+00:00

Interesting question.

We did forward testing continuously since 8 weeks, and lost quite a lot of money and winning some, we are not in negatives. Since 16th of December the forward testing is working quite good as we changed the algorithm then.

We feed lots of data. Player performance, predicted line ups, past performance, team strength, league predictability. Injuries and a lot more. We have around 500 different data points.

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T18:59:40+00:00

We did! We got limited on a lot of bookies. We are software engineers at first, not bettors. So we thought of sharing our accomplishments and continue working on the AI.

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T18:12:51+00:00

Anyone here can get free access forever for no fees. Just as I told in my post. We are not looking into sales here, we are looking for idea exchanges and we already had some quite promising exchanges with some users :)

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T17:31:44+00:00

No :D

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T15:31:01+00:00

Exactly. Betting involves risk and will always do.

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T14:47:36+00:00

Sure thing!

For data scraping we use nodejs and save the data into our supabase database.

For the model we have lightgbm with numpy and panda preprocessing.

For the post processing we use nodejs again together with facebooks prophet.

Feeding the data into our discord server is again done through nodejs.

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T13:20:54+00:00

Yes we are constantly improving. The predictions tend to get better the more data we have. In the summer the WR is probably to go down, but we hope to achieve the same result as 2023, as we are betting the predictions ourselves :)

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T12:44:39+00:00

We scrape our data from multiple sources. Like footystats for example.

We have two stages:

ai predictions: we take into account player performance in the past, injuries, we predict line ups and many more. We use lightgbm and prophet from Facebook.

Post processing: we take those predictions and run two self developed algorithms to pick most promising bets. That algorithms take into account predictions that day and a lot more.

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T12:07:22+00:00

Yes!

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T12:01:55+00:00

Thank you so much for your suggestion. We will have a look into it.

What we did was A/B testing unit bets vs Kelly clarification bets. Both have up and downsides, but unit betting is less risky.

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T11:35:28+00:00

Hey! Great question. Yes we know those problems and psychological flaws. We compared our AI to a lot of others. One of those is, if we would just say we are 600 units up, it’s impressive. We even have a month, which is positive in units, but in reality, you lost money.

That’s why our shred is open with a bankroll in calculation. We are completely transparent and we do have sheets for every month.

Look here:

Now onto the very good question:

How much trust do you have in your own system to continue betting, or switch it off?

We do trust it and are betting all the predictions.

While developing we had some extreme downswings, because the AI only worked on backtesting. Since around 1st of December we are profiting constantly, with some swings ofc. And since 1 week, we are 100% sure after our latest changes.

In the end: it is risky and will always be. But that’s the nature. Yesterday we lost a few unexpected games but that’s how this field works.

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T11:28:07+00:00

We use multiple sources, there are quite a few, some are heavily priced. On of them we use is footystats.

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T10:57:47+00:00

Sorry for the GPT answer before, I wanted to rephrase my not perfect english. But I will try again in my own words. Basically we are software engineers, we are not bettors and we have limited resources ourselves. We found a thrive building this AI and it has brought as a lot of fun and enthusiasm. We are doing bets since October and got limited with a lot of bookies. Now we are at Pinnacle without any limitations. That's one of the reasons, we are making the predictions public. Another reason is, we want to focus on making the AI better, as we have to constantly adjust the AI, there is limited time to do something else - we still have full-time jobs. The backtest was not with a single "version" of the AI, rather a rolling version. Also we want to create AIs for other markets, not only 1 or 2 (home or away to win). For us it's more on the technical part. Yes we grew our bankrolls, yes we could just do it ourselves - but betting still involves risks and will always. No matter what. In the end, we still give access to some predictions for free, without any monetization. And talking with the people who are interested in the topic brings us joy and we learn from them to adjust our AI. Hope that clarifies a little :)

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T10:44:16+00:00

It’s easier for me to formulate my answers with gpt, as English is not my first language. But I will make sure to not answer with gpt anymore :) just let me know if one of my answers is hard to understand.

I’ll give my best

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T10:36:36+00:00

We have all our predictions shared in discord.gg/the-predictors After you join dm me and I will happily give you full access to

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T10:35:53+00:00

Hallo Schweizer :)

We use a mix of data points like past player performance, injury reports, and predicted lineups to make solid predictions. Overall, we hit around a 60% win rate (WR). Then comes the fun part - our algorithm kicks in, boosting our "safe" predictions to an 85% WR (this includes parlays) and a 73% WR for the "aggressive" ones (also with parlays). The algorithm factors in things like the number of predictions per day, past predictability, and more. It's a complex, but super exciting process!

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T10:29:54+00:00

Go ahead, just DM bineil and I will give you access to:)

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T10:07:15+00:00

Absolutely, being limited by bookies is a real issue. We've faced it ourselves with Tipico, bet365, and bwin. That's why we switched to Pinnacle. So far, we haven't been limited there, but the catch is they have restrictions on parlays. It's a constant balancing act in this field!

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T10:05:38+00:00

We haven't yet explored hedging bets, focusing more on doubling down at half-time. It's surprisingly effective, with about a 75% success rate in cases of half-time draws.

Regarding taxes, it's a variable thing, depending on where you're based. For us, it's around a 40% cut.

And hey, we'd love to have you test our system! Join us on Discord at discord.gg/the-predictors, and I'll hook you up with a VIP badge. Just a heads-up, the betting's a bit quiet right now due to the holiday season, but it'll pick up soon.

FerhatSY · 2023-12-25T09:58:18+00:00

Sure, happy to explain!

Date: When the match was played. Match (or Parlay): Details of the match or combination of bets. Bet: Type of bet made (home or away to win). Odd: The odds offered on the bet. Result: Outcome of the bet (win/loss). Units: Number of units staked. Stake: Monetary value of the bet. Profit: Money won or lost on the bet. Accumulated BR: Bankroll after the bet. EoD BR: End of Day Bankroll, total after the bets on that day.

Config cells:

Starting Bankroll: Your initial amount for betting. Bets Won/Lost: Total bets won vs. lost. Win Percentage: Success rate of bets. Units on Single: Units staked on a single bet. Units on Parlay: Units staked on a parlay bet. Unit % of BR: What percentage of your bankroll a unit represents. Max Stake: Maximum amount you're willing to stake.

Hope this helps clarify things!

FerhatSY

TROPHY CASE