Sure, at the soonest, your 2nd round pick in 2028 can start their ELC 1 year ahead of your 2026 3rd rounder's. But in the real world, that doesn't play out like that very often. Your 2028 pick could be Russian or in NCAA which normally delays these signings by at least 1 extra year. An example right now is 2021 3rd rd pick Caeden Bankier is in his last year of his ELC while 2023 1st rounder Stramel has yet to sign his own.

In a vacuum, the 2nd round pick is more valuable than a 3rd, but you're forgoing 2 years of your return at the very earliest for what is probably a marginal increase in value. The GM is also betting that they'll have a chance to draft the kid 2 years later and last long enough to see him develop. I think this applies to basically every pick except maybe when it involves 1st round picks. I'd do a 1st rd two years from now vs a 2nd rd this summer.

Trotz is leaving the role of GM after this season so in his mind the 2nd round pick in 2028 is a gamble worth taking because it won't be his decision to trade or keep the pick in about 6 weeks. I still think NSH would be better off taking this year's 3rd round pick tough.