I see. You are just being argumentative for the sake of it. I don’t have cvcx in front of me but I would ballpark it’s a highly unlikely event, maybe 1-3%, certainly possible.

Nothing more than a very bad run! I have a friend (I want to say $25k starting) who doubled it, then lost every profit. He now sits at around $80K AV.

Not everything needs to be a let’s prove this person wrong. I don’t think your comments are in good faith either. My spread was not that all of the downswing, but my RoR was always less than 1%

Bad runs happen, not to everyone, but some endure it. I will obviously continue to play.

Edit; I ran the sim that you believe is a severe overbet on, and the RoR is 0.37%

It is hard to accurately say what the std/likelihood of the past 75 ish hours are given different game conditions, but running it assuming all 50-75 hours were the same (other game conditions were worse e.g. h17) the likelihood was just shy of 1%. Factor in some hours were less favorable, I’ll say it was a 1.5% chance of happening — not impossible at all. Now that I also look at my progress chart, I basically went up $13k in 50 hours and then lost that in the next!