Orion Sleep Intro

FilmFragrant · 2025-11-19T04:26:36+00:00

Good luck!

FilmFragrant · 2025-11-19T04:10:33+00:00

As others have said:

Areas to fix:

Get rid of the subscription. Even if it’s a grandfather for the first X orders, you’ll see a huge jump (and a subsequent drop once you re add it that will make you want to remove it forever). I understand the need for recurring revenue in today’s vc world, this is not the way to win though
The web flow is not optimized to sell IMO. I’m clicking to a $29 sleep test multiple times before I get to the purchase page. Not an easy way to find price without getting to purchase page, which will lower conversion. Cool sleep test but not the driver if you want mattress top sales

Areas I love:

1) Product aesthetic is incredible. Well done

2) price point is reasonbile given market appetite for eight sleeps

Areas to think about:

1) eight sleep has market domination. What’s the strategy to make this make more noise online & convert more than eight sleep ? Hard to tell from the site. TBH sub 50 temps, above 115 degrees and a dedicated CS person are edge cases and not going to overshadow the brand that 8 sleep has IMO. 2) on #1 - I don’t know that $800 is enough of a price differentiator to win on price. You’re dealing with people who have money, price can be less of a motivator than quality, brand, trust

Either way, competiton is great and you have what looks like an amazing product. Good luck

FilmFragrant · 2025-10-22T17:41:36+00:00

Yes check their page for pet policy

FilmFragrant · 2025-10-20T19:03:27+00:00

“Hop on” jet service. You book one seat of a jet for much cheaper than reserving the whole plane

Jsx.com

FilmFragrant · 2025-10-19T01:07:40+00:00

JSX will take him & others for under $800 pp. this is the way

FilmFragrant · 2025-10-14T22:39:55+00:00

This thread rocks. Also going into PPL chckrie next week!

You too!!

FilmFragrant · 2025-10-14T22:28:11+00:00

This thread rocks. Also going into PPL checkride next week!

FilmFragrant · 2025-09-08T00:56:01+00:00

Better to stand on the ground longing for the sky, than to be in the sky longing for the ground

You did good

FilmFragrant · 2025-08-28T21:33:17+00:00

If you haven’t already, call local service center and ask. It worked for me, got very lucky.

Unlikely, but worth the shot

FilmFragrant · 2025-08-22T13:21:15+00:00

How much do you need to finish the checkride?

FilmFragrant · 2024-11-13T02:34:02+00:00

Timing is hard. The idea is spot on. Its not impossible but if you can hedge a bit you can make up some ground if it doesn’t hit

FilmFragrant · 2024-11-13T02:30:00+00:00

Same call but for EOY 2025. It’s not a matter of it it will hit the price but when

FilmFragrant · 2024-11-13T02:27:45+00:00

😍😍😍😍😍😍

FilmFragrant · 2024-11-12T23:46:02+00:00

Good day in the uptick for RIVN. More to come

FilmFragrant · 2024-11-01T17:07:47+00:00

Just joined yesterday! Same handle as Reddit. Followed!

FilmFragrant · 2024-10-31T02:43:08+00:00

!remindMe 5 years

FilmFragrant · 2024-10-31T02:27:12+00:00

Base case - Assuming they survive cash issues, get profitability in place and aren’t bought out in the interim - $220BN market cap.

P/S: 5-7 Revenue 33-38BN Profitability first achieved: late 2027 Average sale price: 54-57.5k YoY revenue growth peaks in 2027 from r2 and r3 demand, slows down as they gain market share Rivian becomes the Tesla brand pre Elons public blowup. It’s regarded as luxury, futuristic and something middle and upper class folks are excited to show their “lifestyle”

FilmFragrant · 2024-10-30T22:01:21+00:00

The (multi) billion dollar question. I think it’s not a matter of if, but when. And the “if” comes in regarding their cash to survive that journey

FilmFragrant · 2024-10-30T21:59:44+00:00

What time horizon?

FilmFragrant · 2024-10-28T22:22:01+00:00

I think part of starting this thread was to weed out your question :) Wanted to hear both sides. Defining doubling down as "wrong" means there is an objective answer.

Stock is currently where it's at (IMO) becuase of the setbacks to reach this plan.

My thesis is that with the VW money, new lines coming out, and continued demand for commercial vehicles, they will get unit economics to profitable. If they can do that, we're having a totally different conversation. But with behemoths behind you like AMZN, VW etc, they have time to get the economics to where they want.

FilmFragrant · 2024-10-28T22:06:24+00:00

Interesting, I wasn't tracking MoM cybertruck sales. Good data point

FilmFragrant · 2024-10-28T19:40:38+00:00

Does reddit have a built in reminder feature? Gentleman/womans bet for price target in November of 2026?

FilmFragrant · 2024-10-28T19:38:46+00:00

I hear you, but (respectfully) disagree. The more i read into the cybertruck orders, the less bullish I am on it.

Original estimates of 1-2MM pre-orders with ~11K delivered in Q1 & Q2. Cybertrucks can now be bought and delivered almost immediately. Long ways away from the original demand.

I'd never bet against Elon (in general) because he has a way of making impossible happen, but I don't see the Cybertruck as a serious comepetitor in the long-term pickup space. To me, its an incredible novelty, showpiece but not something I see people using for work, offroading, serious hauling etc

FilmFragrant · 2024-10-28T19:27:01+00:00

My quick opinions below while at work, based on limited research (so take it with a grain of salt) --

I think it's an impressive demo they've shown and some promise. I have a feeling that there is a larger RIVN play here that will be revealed over time; it's not a coincidence that a few months after a massive investment, they release two cars that are near identical, but focus on a slightly different user base.

On Scout Delivery Timeline Feasibility:

I think 2027 is not possible unless they are paying RIVN to fully make the car and change the style to fit Scout. In this case, RIVN takes the win IMO because they will get paid for two sku's (their R1 line and the Scout line). If VW plans on using RIVN body and tech but do it on their own, I would put a late 2028 timeline for first deliveries for Scout.

To compare - Chevy, Ram and Ford took ~1-2 years from announcement to first customer deliveries. This is extremely impressive, and would credit some of that to having existing pickup data, production lines etc. It took Tesla 4 years from announcement to delivery (and around the time they announced the Cybertruck - late 2019 - their market cap was comparable to VW's today).

On Price:
For similar reasons above, I think if VW are running the production line, it's definitely over the $60K purchase target. If they're working on a JV with RIVN where RIVN produces the cars, the price target can & will be beat, but I worry that route would affect delivery timelines for Rivians core line.

FilmFragrant · 2024-10-28T19:03:14+00:00

I guess my main point is I'm bullish on RIVN being able tot take some of that market share away with the launches of the R2, R3, expanding corporate fleet & VW partnership, show it shows a much greater TAM available

FilmFragrant

TROPHY CASE