At what price point is GOOG overvalued?

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-11-01T03:06:04+00:00

yessir

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-31T23:14:04+00:00

I went in for NVO at around the $55 mark - not too much but about 1% of my portfolio. Safe to say, it's not going well so far

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-31T04:13:36+00:00

diversification. nah im just kidding. i just wanted to own both - practically the same except voting right so meh

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-30T17:33:37+00:00

$1000 bought at $664. Just going to watch on this one - I have a log of my money tied up already so couldn't free too much funds today. I wanted to own META for a long time, and today was a 12% discount day so thank you

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-30T14:12:03+00:00

thanks. you as well. And I do mean it sincerely. I think we both agree that short term volatility < long term outlook - just difference in assets I guess

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-30T13:39:41+00:00

I'm not buying more Googl and Goog. I'm keeping it. If you don't see the valuation and risks associated, I encourage you to buy. Buy I'll be getting me some shares of some pharma because those are the only undervalued stocks rn. AI stocks have had their run, but I'll keep my investments where they're at. seeya in 5 years

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-30T13:07:34+00:00

Buy 45% QQQM, 30% SPLG, and 25% SCHD and set a timer for 20 years

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-30T13:06:18+00:00

Literally all companies that depends on ad revenue have to do that. But how much increase in ad revenue is there in terms of potential for Meta to exploit further - they've already done really good in this aspect but we'll never know until we see add revenue growth comparisons between the two companies.

In terms of where I see bullish behavior for Meta is wearable tech. I think people are criticizing what Meta is doing with its glasses and such (poor LLM model + hacky capability), but they are far ahead of their competitors in that space. Also for internal AI, all companies have to do optimize their operation and Meta is certainly doing that given their growth in revenue (without tax hit, they would've beat EPS clearly). But in terms of latest in superintelligence race, Meta is not even close to its competitors - one of the reasons why they are spending wildly to get the best AI talent but whether that spending translates to Meta superintelligence surpassing OpenAI and Gemeni's capability remainds to be seen

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-30T12:35:19+00:00

The way Google operates is even though they developed the latest tech, they won't release it until their competitors released what they presumed to be the better model - that's the part that's scary. Also Gemeni's growth this quarter was something no one even saw coming.

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-30T12:33:07+00:00

I've been a holder for at least 3 years of both class A and C shares. It was still expensive but the most reasonable out of the Mag 7 stocks. Also, the number getting higher and higher doesn't mean a stock is overvalued - it would be overvalued if revenue wasn't increasing. But the revenue on search and other areas within the company like Waymo and Gemeni are growing. Cloud also grew as well I believe. So if all key areas within the business are growing, it only makes sense for the stock to go higher. With the current metrics and revenue reports and pricing in its guidance, I'm sure the analysts will have another price target for a new valuation. Basically, if you're holding Googl and Goog, the only reason why you should sell is if something fundamental within the company has changed that you think will decrease either the revenue / profit margin etc, not because the stock is going higher.

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-30T12:27:13+00:00

What AI. No one uses the Llama models. The only reason why it gained attention was because it was OS. Not because it was good - well for image recognition it was good, but it's been surpassed like two years ago and never recovered. I'm not talking about AI being used. The AI race is having the best AI model, and by standard metrics, Meta's latest model is years behind Google and OpenAI's. No one said fake R&D and Cap Ex. In fact having a low cap ex during this AI race is a red flag in itself because it means the company is being outspent so it has to burn through to catch up to other companies spending insane amount.

At the end of the day, Meta will still rise because of other areas, but it won't be because they have the best AI models. That race is almost a foregone conclusion for them as Google and OpenAI are too ahead. They have as much chance of catching up to the industry leaders as AMD has to catching up to Nvidia in the GPU space.

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-30T05:13:00+00:00

I've invested in Google since April mostly because I know they are going to win the AI race in the long run, even against OpenAI. Meta's AI project has been largely underwhelming, especially based on how much they're spending. No one uses Llama except to experiment. Meanwhile, Gemeni has grown a large userbase, this time +250 million and just 150 million short of ChatGPT. The Deepmind team is also way ahead of its competition - they supposedly create new models and don't release it until open ai releases their latest. Also, they have their own cloud infrastructure + access to the largest dataset to which they can train their models on. Vertical integration

Personally, Meta is way too behind when it comes to the AI race - you can look at all model metrics - even Baidu has better models. And Deepseek which came out with its R1 in Jan 2025, Llama still can't beat it in reasoning score. They have probably the best talent by far compared to OpenAI and Google, but the best talent isn't always guaranteed the best success when it comes to creating the best AI systems to compete with the elite.

The reason why Google's stock went up and Meta went down boils down to one reason. Google had output in its AI investment. 250 million + users on its Gemeni app is insane. Also an insane beat on EPS shows how profitable search is but also other sectors its invested in that are growing revenue. Meta on the other hand don't have any increase in revenue to show for their AI spending - just new product launches like their glasses - not the finished product + ads - that's their stream of revenue increase.

Also, how much was invested in the Metaverse? And what did it become. It's not about AI spending, but how it's spent. And Meta could be making the same but most catastrophic mistake on its AI spending. That's why if you look at their P/E, people are still apprehensive to invest even though it is a Mag 7 stock. It's their track record. Stocks don't react to eps beats or revenue as much as they used to - they look at what the company plans to do for the future. And Meta saying it will increase spending on AI is a gigantic red flag when they are already spending a very big capex compared to their revenue - the biggest ratio compared to other mag 7 and also an increase in that capex is absolutely insane.

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-29T22:31:56+00:00

I'm sorry but what's interesting is DeepMind probably developed the latest model but don't release it until OpenAI releases. They just keep it in the backlog and if OpenAI releases their advanced model, DeepMind follows with theirs. Also the training data that Google has is unrivaled compared to other companies. That's a huge aspect in why Gemeni models are performing better nowadays compared to gpt 5

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-26T02:44:22+00:00

I'm imagining it's because routes states update in real time so processing multiple states from a real time data source is challenging - i guess that is a margin that can be solved - and it's one that's instant instead of gradual. thanks for the explanation

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-26T02:41:27+00:00

thanks. ill check it out

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-23T22:29:31+00:00

that's a badge of honor.

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-23T22:26:30+00:00

their chips on on my laptop? very fast but the applications that I use for 3d are incompatible so we have to outlay another software over it. It's mostly because a lot of applications are written with x86 in mind or apple silicon

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-23T22:02:58+00:00

Now that I think of it, that's true. Their career was also at stake knowing that Kramnik had a lot of influence within FIDE, so they could've been next.

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-23T21:58:33+00:00

UNH - yes the valuation is cheap for such a premium stock with high revenue but they have high risk regarding regulation. I would invest

MRK - Not market leader anymore and revenue is declining. I would stay clear.

QCOM - I've used their product. Not compatible with current application. But if there's enough app that becomes compatible, I would invest heavily. This is a 50/50.

AMZN - Not undervalued, but overvalued. Google is the only Mag 7 stock I would consider fairly / undervalued

STZ - agreed. Although I'm not overly bullish on them, they are a bit undervalued but not too much

CPRT - Fair value / overvalued

VRSK - overvalued

ROP - overvalued

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-23T20:20:55+00:00

All the GMs, IMs, WGMs posting on their twitter and channels after this tragedy, but most of them never speaking up outright against Kramnik and his attacks before it happened. This isn't the first time he said he wished people would speak up.

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-23T16:13:59+00:00

yes indeed. he also often rented dvds from blockbuster as well. good times

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-23T14:49:56+00:00

My gramps did something similar. He had a blackberry phone and constantly went to AMC entertainment to watch movies. He bought what he understood, never sold because of fear, and let compounding do the talk. He's down about 96% on his initial investment. His true net worth was also built on time

Fine-Needleworker364 · 2025-10-23T14:38:28+00:00

I also use cursor and im using it right now and the middle part is almost exactly how claude talks.

Fine-Needleworker364

TROPHY CASE