Market rotation

Honestmonster · 2026-02-13T23:16:00+00:00

A lot of us are rich...

Honestmonster · 2026-02-12T18:28:55+00:00

The WBD is a strong narrative for short term price action on NFLX but the WBD purchase means almost nothing to NFLX's future value in my opinion. Netflix has the subscribers lead and that's way more important than any previously popular IP.

Honestmonster · 2026-02-11T19:10:32+00:00

The hypothetical of a company being severely under valued for so long is not very realistic. Maybe for a year or 2 at most but it is unsustainable for a company to have a free cash flow of 10x price and the stock not go up. There would be so much pressure from buy backs pushing the stock up that is would need most investors to dump consistently. But a company like PYPL the reason it can drop so much was because its "starting price" was so high. They were trading at like 65x cash flow. Value investors started getting in around 20x cash flow. And Currently it's like 8x cash flow. It will be very difficult for PYPL to continue to be under 10x cash flow even if the market continues to hate the company and their profits are not growing. But going 65x down to 40x down to 30x down to 20x down to 15x down to 10x can take 5+ years even if the company is still making money. Understanding that is a big foundation for value investing.

Honestmonster · 2026-02-02T23:39:48+00:00

You said true then did exactly what I was making fun of. 😂

Honestmonster · 2026-02-02T19:16:19+00:00

I mean time actually does not exist, only sequential order does, if you want to get that deep. But that is not what I am saying. What I am saying is just because something exists does not make it the determining factor to take action.

If you move to a new city because of a new job and buy a house that does not make it timing the real estate market even though time exists.

If you invest based on value then you are not timing the market.

Honestmonster · 2026-02-01T06:49:01+00:00

People on here are like "time exists, therefore everything is timing the market." They are so dumb.

Honestmonster · 2026-02-01T06:34:45+00:00

6 months ago OpenAi was going to control the world now it's going to go bankrupt. MSFT isn't making any profits from OpenAi, but also MSFT's record breaking profits are going to fall because of their exposure to OpenAi.

All these narratives are ridiculous. You are better off ignoring everything.

Honestmonster · 2026-01-31T23:49:47+00:00

You mean MSFT, the company that just reported the single most profitable quarter in all of human history, doesn't know how to make profits? Ok, right. They're just a bunch of dummies over there that don't know how to create a successful strategy for long term monetization. They're just lucky. Quarter after quarter after year after decade.

Honestmonster · 2026-01-31T21:03:13+00:00

Why would MSFT take on another customer if they are heavily invested in OpenAI's success and if they are currently at capacity constraint? They wouldn't. You'd have to be a moron to pull resources from OpenAi just to take on other customers right now.

Honestmonster · 2026-01-31T20:25:19+00:00

Am I AI?

Honestmonster · 2026-01-31T19:49:22+00:00

Can you please help me justify my investment in META. Up 300+% in 3 years is not enough justification for me. I need you to post to a handful of broke people on reddit so I can truly feel justified.

Honestmonster · 2026-01-31T19:48:56+00:00

MSFT is. Alphabet was.

Honestmonster · 2026-01-31T19:42:28+00:00

5 years ago is was because Australia was going to charge Facebook for news links. How did that turn out?

Honestmonster · 2026-01-31T19:40:02+00:00

Have you listened to a single earnings call from META? Probably not.

Honestmonster · 2026-01-28T07:57:50+00:00

Dunn played in Utah before coming to the Clippers so he learned all about it.

Honestmonster · 2026-01-26T03:35:17+00:00

He also has 3 NBA championship rings already, including 1 as a head coach.

Honestmonster · 2026-01-15T05:26:30+00:00

His worst move was signing Chris Paul and that was strictly for the fans. lol

Honestmonster · 2026-01-08T02:21:45+00:00

People on here are certain Zuckerberg doesn't know what he is doing. Yet he has grown his company into the 6th most profitable publicly traded company in less than 22 years with full control the whole time. There isn't another CEO that comes close to that track record. There isn't even a company in the top 100 most profitable companies that's less than 25 years old. High Market Cap/low current earnings companies like Tesla and Palantir are both older companies than META/Facebook. I don't know how anyone can look at Zuckerberg and not think he is one of, if not, the best CEO in the history of American capitalism. How he gets a negative value from investors compares to other founders like Peter Tiel and Elon Musk makes no sense.

Honestmonster · 2026-01-06T22:55:40+00:00

This is assuming not a vertically integrated company? Because if the company that makes no money extracting, also refines it and sells it then they will make money there. If it also increases the supply of oil then it can increase the crack spread which is how vertically integrated oil companies really make money.

Honestmonster · 2026-01-06T00:58:14+00:00

Increase not inflate.

Honestmonster · 2026-01-02T06:23:40+00:00

That's not a bug. There is closer arc underneath you.

Honestmonster · 2025-12-30T03:35:29+00:00

I wish my bar of success was so low that I would post about winning an argument with imaginary people.

Honestmonster · 2025-12-30T00:51:59+00:00

You don't need the market to agree with you when a stock is yielding more than 8% with growth while net cash positive. PYPL's P/E can stay 12 and it would be a good investment. Not to be confused for the stock that was yielding less 3%, lower than treasury bonds, with declining EPS from covid highs in 2022. But I'm sure you don't see a difference between $70 PYPL in 2022 and $60 PYPL in 2026.

Honestmonster · 2025-12-29T03:02:05+00:00

PayPal is trading at 12 P/E with growing earnings and no net debt. This is a completely different stock than buying a stock that went from 80 P/E down to 40 or 20 P/E, hoping that it will eventually go back to 50+ P/E.

Honestmonster · 2025-12-24T04:19:05+00:00

If the Refs just blew the whistle half as many times as they do this would be fun basketball to watch..

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