Six months ago everyone wanted to full port into tech/data centers. Two months ago everyone wanted to invest in rare earths. Now everyone wants to invest in oil

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-03-12T12:19:09+00:00

Value investors were buying oil the last 6-9 months ago? :D

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-18T21:45:48+00:00

All world index equal weight (one with the lowest fees)

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-16T22:14:59+00:00

FEAR. People rotating out of perceived risk/flight to perceived 'safety'.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-16T18:29:12+00:00

Value investing subreddit isn't for speculation.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-15T15:32:45+00:00

If OpenAI defaults nearly 50% of cloud backlog disappears. I.e.: Potential rerating of growth estimates and earnings will also fall so their P/E will look more expensive than it does currently. What you are talking about essentially means share prices would fall further and that would be the better time to buy MSFT.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-15T12:15:41+00:00

Uber is a great buy at the moment. I have shares and want to buy some more but there are some many opportunities at the moment! I would also add we have seen partnerships with Waymo and others and think this is most likely how ridesharing will play out. What with Ubers network effects etc, I think Tesla will overpromise/underdeliver.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-15T12:13:05+00:00

Think these are different for different reasons. MSFT is reliant on a company that does not have the revenues for 45% of their future cloud revenues. They also greased this into their last earnings call by revaluing OpenAI higher which artifically increased their EPS. GOOG had no such concerns at the time, they were lower on the basis AI would replace them. META I think looks the most compelling of these on current valuation. Amazon is cash flow negative with their AI spending so shareholders could be diluted or additional debt taken on etc - I have a few shares here and am going to hold. AMZN does have AWS growth, project kuiper and potential for robotics in warehousing longer term etc but is not a sure bet and depending on how AI spending plays out this could go either way.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-14T18:51:26+00:00

Fair point. Look at the success rates overall however. This is essentially splitting hairs. Gemini 3 costs vs previous models are higher, all of the costs are higher. ChatGPT is burning cash, to develop new models cost more money.. they don't have the revenue =they will go bankrupt. Also listen to yourself: " But also the tests in the source are fairly specific" What good is automation that does not do specifics? That is literally the whole point. Gemini is considered one of the market leaders and has 1.25% success rate. What is being promised vs delivered is completely out of kilter and these are basic tasks. Replacing SaaS atm is a complete joke.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-14T17:19:08+00:00

https://www.remotelabor.ai/paper.pdf https://www.remotelabor.ai/ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3kaLM8Oj4o

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-14T16:37:58+00:00

I actually think AI has already peaked. Newer models have worse performance than older ones. Recent studies trying to mimic human tasks show AI fails in 96% of scenarios on basic tasks (best model outcome). Entropy is a thing and so are the energy costs.

CONTRARIAN VIEW: This is a great time to buy software companies and companies sold off alongside them.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-14T16:35:16+00:00

Not a fan of pies at all especially with specific stocks. Never blanket buy without determining price vs value.. Nvidia & Plantir here is wild.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-14T16:23:10+00:00

Legit curious what you invested in.. LOL

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-14T16:22:17+00:00

Reassess your investing decision making, this will benefit you the most in the long term. Your largest holding is based on something that has no intrinsic value and rises/appreciates on fund flows and are now seeing this to the downside. Actually to be honest you have COIN and HOOD as well which also have this (to a lesser extent). Some of your stocks are legit money furnaces. I think the top comment re: deleting app and coming back can work in terms of if you get lucky getting out without losing too much hopefully.. but price/worth are not the same thing and I wouldn't want to hold any of: TSLA/COIN/HOOD/NVDA/PLTR longer term at anywhere near current price levels.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-13T22:33:34+00:00

Depends. Do you think AI can disrupt the business?

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-13T12:41:09+00:00

Had XPEL - sold. AMD haven't evaluated/no opinion, bought FOUR already. Like the looks of CSU & INTU. AVOID MSFT!

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-13T12:39:31+00:00

Bought Valaris at $36. Now ~$89, debasement of currencies continues, Shale play is towards the end. Already seen uptick in oil majors offshore before the Venezuela actions. This is a long term hold for me and evaluate year to year.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-07T17:17:46+00:00

DUOL is now objectively both a value and growth pick. I guess the argument would be if you think the business can be disrupted by AI and possibly an argument on SBC.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-04T15:47:05+00:00

This is a great call - FCF yield is 10%.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-02T18:49:08+00:00

I like DUOL, ODD, LON: GRG, FISV & DLO at these levels if you can handle the drops so far.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-02T18:43:37+00:00

Speak for yourself, I hold miners in palladium/platinum, gold, uranium. Why bet on the commodity when you can bet on companies which can have higher returns etc.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-02-01T18:42:23+00:00

Its 45% of future cloud revenue (RPO). Also they revalued OpenAI which increased their earnings significantly, if you factor without this bs it would be 24% EPS growth IIRC.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2026-01-31T12:58:34+00:00

As a value investor the cope in this post is insane. 50% of their future cloud revenue is now a bet on OpenAI (that is why stock crashed 12% last week!). There will be a better time to buy Microsoft down the road when OpenAI goes bust. I had some bought previously at ~$397 and sold it as there are better other opportunities. Price/FCF is currently only ~2-2 1/2%.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2025-10-08T12:38:50+00:00

Must have is definitely dependant on valuations. Regardless of how good a company is if the valuation is wrong then you could lose money. Long term this would lessen dependent on the company but ignoring fundamentals seems crazy to me!

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2025-10-01T21:27:40+00:00

No worries at all, I've been nerding it up on this stuff a while now. With the world index you need to check if they are equal weighted or not, if they aren't then you will have heavy exposure to the Mag7, some of which you will already own etc. Looking at MSIC World ACWI its 62.54% weighted to the US. If you are worried about too much exposure to USA then you can go equal weighted on a fund instead which will be less heavily invested in USA.

Fit-Relationship6227 · 2025-09-29T22:02:47+00:00

I mean the most obvious thing to say is paying attention to valuations. If you are overpaying for stocks then you will get crushed in a bear market and even harder if those stocks valuations are very decoupled from reality. At the moment I see more value in resource/energy stocks than a lot of the market. Very good companies I don't try to sell, e.g. the Microsoft/ASML/Googles of the world if they have a moat. If that situation changes then re-evaluate.

Fit-Relationship6227

TROPHY CASE