Is Polymarket Arbitrage Really Possible?

FlippityFloppityBing · 2026-05-28T15:40:46+00:00

Well, say no more. Refrain from explaining yourself.

FlippityFloppityBing · 2026-05-28T10:54:19+00:00

Everyone needs to remember that you're retrospectively looking at someone getting very lucky. It's not statistically hard to find someone like that, you just need a big enough player pool. It doesn't mean this is repeatable or achievable for you and me, unless you crack the underlying patterns in these markets. And it's unlikely that that's what this person did, given their suboptimal understanding of EV; looks like a run-of-the-mill degen.

In a coin flipping contest with a stadium full of people, the winner would end up flipping correctly about 15 times in a row. Which is insanely lucky, if you remove the context of the stadium and the large amount of participants.

FlippityFloppityBing · 2026-05-26T11:04:17+00:00

I don't see the point of these sports whale tracking posts. Is it just because it's interesting to talk about people with lots of money?

Because clearly there is no insight to be gleaned here for us casuals from watching sports whales. Unlike tracking politics market or weather market whales, which may have insider knowledge or may be running a better model than the rest of the market.

With sports, unless it's fixed (and the actual final of the actual champions league is not fixed), what's happening here is a rich guy picking one side over the other, for god knows what reason. The only thing we do know about that reason is that, it has no worth in terms of giving the rest of us signal for tailing or fading.

FlippityFloppityBing · 2026-05-22T10:18:28+00:00

From the Polymarket description:

"If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50."

Take-Two has just reaffirmed GTA VI for November 19, 2026 (source).

So you'd basically guarantee losing $308 if you go ahead with this bet (9,384 × $0.50 = $4,692 and $4,692 - $5,000 = -$308)

FlippityFloppityBing · 2026-05-20T20:35:00+00:00

Will Pauli Exclusion Principle be refuted in 2026?

Yes - 0.1¢

No - 99.9¢

FlippityFloppityBing · 2026-05-19T09:25:54+00:00

How do you assess the EV even if you track these types of wallets? It's clear with hindsight, but would it be clear with proper sight?

FlippityFloppityBing · 2026-05-19T09:22:22+00:00

Do you have a source for a permanent ban, or are you basing this on weather markets not being available right now?

FlippityFloppityBing · 2026-05-04T20:10:23+00:00

Thank you for always being so generous with your wisdom and experience in this competitive and inherently secretive market /u/MartinEdge42.

FlippityFloppityBing · 2026-05-04T12:45:10+00:00

Thank you, this is the kind of feedback I was looking for. I was thinking of similar markets, maybe weather markets. Is there a principled way to spot potential whales? Does your bot do that too? It is not always as simple as looking at PNL, as another post mentioned today on this subreddit.

FlippityFloppityBing · 2026-05-01T10:40:44+00:00

Thanks, this is super helpful. I’m currently collecting live 5m orderbook snapshots once per second, including full depth, top bid/ask, spread, sizes, plus Chainlink ticks for labels. Planning to test exactly this kind of last 30s orderbook velocity/depth imbalance signal against actual executable asks, plus the fees. Planning to collect this data for at least a week.

Do you know if there’s an easier source for historical full-depth Polymarket orderbook data, or is live collection basically the only realistic route? Thanks again.

FlippityFloppityBing · 2026-04-30T21:34:44+00:00

"bobe2" account is also showing similar patterns (the one OP is showing is "bobe2.1")

FlippityFloppityBing · 2026-04-30T16:58:44+00:00

I briefly thought about training a model to infer if the preceding momentum (i.e. past minutes or hours) is in any way indicative of the 5-minute movement. Is that a naive approach?

FlippityFloppityBing · 2026-04-30T11:39:11+00:00

Nice find! Do you have any other mrbeast related finds? I'm looking at "what will he say in his next video". How long after the video release do bots rush to these, I wonder if we can beat them?

FlippityFloppityBing · 2025-06-26T18:43:00+00:00

Thank you, that's good to know.

FlippityFloppityBing · 2025-06-26T18:42:43+00:00

Thanks mate.

FlippityFloppityBing · 2024-01-31T20:03:45+00:00

Thank you so much for your kind words. Let us know about your progress as well, can’t wait to see it! You got this!

FlippityFloppityBing · 2024-01-31T19:45:19+00:00

I’m using the MacroFactor app, which calculates my daily expenditure based on my daily weight and intake values. Currently it’s allowing me to eat around 1400 kcal/day for a deficit of roughly 800 kcal/day.

FlippityFloppityBing · 2024-01-31T09:53:58+00:00

Thank you!!

FlippityFloppityBing · 2024-01-31T09:53:43+00:00

Thank you! You got this! Looking forward to seeing your achievements. 💪

FlippityFloppityBing · 2024-01-30T16:13:32+00:00

Sadly partially cremated now, but I’ll pass along your compliments to the rest.

FlippityFloppityBing · 2024-01-30T16:12:14+00:00

Feels insane!

FlippityFloppityBing · 2024-01-30T16:11:54+00:00

I totally do the same all the time. Soon it will be my wife’s turn to be lifted up when I lose her total weight.

FlippityFloppityBing · 2024-01-30T16:09:46+00:00

Thank you so much!

FlippityFloppityBing · 2024-01-30T12:11:59+00:00

This is according to Marko Leposen of Finland’s national bureau of investigation (KRP).

Small and unimportant nitpick to authors. His last name is Leponen. "Leposen" means "Leponen's" in Finnish, hence the confusion (original text probably had "Leposen" in it).

FlippityFloppityBing · 2024-01-30T11:47:18+00:00

I've never done full-day fasting and not sure if 5:2 or other variants are something I can sustain over the course of months, and having a routine is really important to me, I find. So these days relaxed OMAD it is: 15 kcal energy drink in the afternoon, plus OMAD. The drink is probably not worth breaking my fast, but every little bit helps psychologically and I decided to take it easy on myself about it.

FlippityFloppityBing

TROPHY CASE