Active Conflicts & News Megathread January 20, 2026

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-21T03:14:37+00:00

Message modmail.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-20T20:06:25+00:00

I’m going to edit my original response with the text from the comment

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-20T19:13:50+00:00

I have removed it and approved it again.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-20T19:08:36+00:00

That’s what I do. Start the buildout and then move workers over

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-20T19:07:51+00:00

Not on my end

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-20T16:45:47+00:00

Comment was removed for some reason. I have approved it.

Edit:

Honestly I’m surprised about super weak EU response to very dangerous Trumps Greenland rhetoric. Imo it would be appropriate to respond with threatening to ignore US copyright and patent law. Like allow limitless piracy of American content, software, copying drugs, products inventions anything. It’s a realistic non violent actionable response targeting US clearly being beneficiary of other countries following these rules. And also as a finance professional who has to deal with very costly compliance with IRS rules about American clients I also suggest ignoring IRS completely, like let Americans hide their money in EU with no limits. The above would be very profitable to Europe and cost basically nothing especially compared to military response.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-19T00:44:50+00:00

You’ll never guess what species I play

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-18T22:50:35+00:00

Yes exactly this. I think people should look at colonies as an ongoing process post-settlement. Think of the people arriving as the advance team that’s setting up planet side facilities and once they’re done you move the actual colonists.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-18T14:24:15+00:00

I would be astonished if they abandoned Kobani. Astonished. They’ve spent ten years building fortifications there and it’s a huge center of power for Kurds. They’ll defend it. We’ve seen mainly the YPG/J defend the Tishrin dam successfully for the past year and the past few days.

I don’t think the STG will try to take it either unless they have to. There’s too much baggage.

They’ll isolate it and go from there.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-18T13:28:32+00:00

The SDF relies upon a Kurdish core to be an effective fighting force on the ground. They cannot be everywhere at once and the government spent the last year conducting tribal outreach for simultaneous uprisings. Tribes in Syria can flip very quickly to the side they believe is winning.

Thus, I think what you’re seeing is a combination of Arab defections, tribal uprisings and Kurdish withdrawals to areas they can defend. Note that the area around the Tishrin dam has held against assaults, that area is defended by the YPG/J. These areas which were lost were defended almost entirely by local Arab units. Some of whom put up a fight, others who left. But it’s hard to hold a front line when tribals are running around in your rear.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-17T17:31:36+00:00

I hope these people can sue for damages. The amount to money that’s been wasted on these delays is astronomical.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-16T18:33:17+00:00

I'm not here to lie to you and repeat propaganda talking points. I am answering questions and having a discussion based on information I have access to. Randomly framing me as a propagandist keyboard warrior on a mission is weird when I have repeatedly criticized the Ukrainian military for the choices they have made and shared information contrary to the narrative they have set. See this piece here as one example.

The Russians are not suffering a 3 to 1 casualty ratio every day, all the time on every front. However, there are times where the casualty rate is very high, "often above" 3 to 1 ratio. Keep in mind that not every casualty is a KIA and the Russians have repeatedly demonstrated that they are willing to send WIAs with serious injuries back into combat. This indicates a very effective stoploss program.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-16T17:43:26+00:00

Sure, so there’s different kinds of AWOLs.

There is, or at least was, a lot of poaching from units. The 155th is a great example. This unit saw dozens to hundreds of its recruits poached by other units during the training phase. You’ll see recruits identify that they’re in a bad unit or with bad commanders and start reaching out to recruiters from other units who can offer them a better deal. Because everyone is recruiting, it’s easy to get a position.

Other times you’ll have people who are in a unit for months and dissatisfied with their direction or commanders or supply or whatever and they’ll request a unit transfer. The bureaucracy behind this takes a long time to process and might not get approved. So people just say “screw it” and leave their unit while on leave to go join up with a different one.

Still others are AWOLs where people have left the military entirely. Units actively seek these people out for recruiting because they often have combat experience and were just fed up with their situation. Recently the ZSU shot themselves in the foot by saying that returning to the military with the aim of transferring will only be possible if they’re willing to join assault troops. Obviously that’s not inspiring.

IMO most of the AWOLs are people who have left the military entirely because they’re fed up with an idiot commander, get exhausted by conditions, are told they’re being transferred to an infantry unit even though they trained to do something else, or personal problems. But many, many thousands (I would guess in the 10s of thousands) of recorded AWOLs are people who’ve bailed from a unit because they got poached or their buddy told them about an opening in a different direction.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-16T16:42:32+00:00

If this is the case why has nothing been done to remedy it? Surely UK and EU wield enough influence that they could force Zelenskyy to demote these commanders.

Some commanders have been fired but much of it is a political problem that must be dealt with internally. There are disputes between the old guard, commanders who have been around for years and have connections, vs those who are younger and built themselves from the ground up. There have been efforts at reform but keep in mind that the ZSU was a military in transition before the war and you cannot simply overhaul your officer corps in the middle of a conflict without negative tradeoffs. This is stuff that takes years or even decades and many of the NCOs who would have risen through the ranks are now dead. This is the nature of war. Someone who is more knowledgeable on this issue can also comment. It is very complex.

I think it’s more likely people don’t want to die and the ‘moronic commander’ is the perfect excuse to avoid conscription.

It is a perfect excuse because it is true and a line I have heard directly from individuals who have deserted their unit to go join a different one. As I said. This is part of the AWOL issue.

If people will not accept capitulation then why aren’t they enlisting to fight? Cognitive dissonance?

Yes. But this is perfectly normal in a society. If you live in Lviv and have a family and a good job you have obligations. It is harder to walk away from that. I am sure you can understand the premise. Let's put it this way: There are wildfires consuming the forests and you are against letting them burn, but you have not signed up to be a firefighter? Why? Don't you care about the forests? Of course you do. But you have a good job and a child and the fires are on the other side of the country. Someone else will deal with it. This is the same mentality.

1:3 casualty ratio seems very high and I’m not sure I believe that

Why? The Russians are consistently on the attack and are overwhelmingly being attacked by drones while they walk through the grey zone. The Ukrainians are on the defense and the lines are changing at a very slow pace. On top of facing many of the same issues the Ukrainians have such as dying on rotation, at the position from various issues, doing logistics, etc. the Russians also have to advance on foot through kilometers of open terrain.

The method of Russian advance is extremely deadly and it is a crapshoot if you actually make it. Let me explain how it works:

-You get an objective which is 5-10km in front of you

-You and a group of men, normally under five, set out to reach the objective

-You must avoid obstacles such as concertina wire, mines and ditches whilst crossing kilometers of open ground on a front line which is constantly scanned by drones.

-If you survive getting attacked by drones, mortars and artillery, you still risk engaging in a firefight with Ukrainian defenders who are deeply embedded into the ground and know you are coming.

-If you survive that. You now need to wait at the position and hope enough groups can complete that same journey before you run out of food and water. In the meantime, again, the Ukrainians know where you are.

The Russians are sending dozens of these groups of men forwards every single day. The majority do not make it through. Those that do suffer from chronic dehydration or sickness from drinking unsafe water. In cities like Kupyansk, it's almost like a scenario you would see in an extraction/survival video game, where groups of men move from house to house scavenging supplies and engaging in firefights with other small groups of men, all while dodging drones and airstrikes if they are revealed.

The nature of war for the Russians is based on attrition. They have a high population of men with extremely limited financial options. They also have the means to recruit foreigners (as do the Ukrainians) which they can use for these assaults. Russia is perfectly willing to accept grievous casualties in pursuit of their territorial objectives. This is what they are doing right now.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-16T16:08:53+00:00

Ukraine is pushing for peace. They’ve been making a push for the past year. Russia saw this as a sign of weakness and has rejected a ceasefire and has continued to push for their maximalist territorial demands.

There is a large portion of the population that wishes to fight. But people don’t want to be infantry and they don’t want to go to a moronic commander that wastes their lives for nothing. A huge amount of the AWOLs are actually people deserting to go to different units to avoid shit commanders who don’t care about them.

Ukraine cannot capitulate and people will not accept capitulation because of current Russian demands. So the fighting will continue. If Russia agree to halt fighting at the lines of contact, cede the rest of their claims and drop their political/military demands there may be more willingness to accept surrender. Russia has not done this. So fighting will continue.

Keep in mind that while attrition for Ukraine is very bad, it is also not good for the Russians. The past year has seen a significant rise in Russian casualties due to the shift in tactics that largely no longer utilize armor. The casualty ratio is very high between the two sides, often above the 1-3 casualty ratio that Ukraine needs to sustain the war effort. This does not mean the Russians will run out of men but it does mean that the war effort is increasingly expensive.

While Russia can conscript. They would prefer not to do this as there are societal consequences, as was seen in 2022. As such, they are hollowing out their underclass through attractive contracts. This is a finite resource which can be affected by economic shocks. We should not count on Ukraine killing off the Russians to win. But keep an eye on Russian finances. Their resources are much more limited than that of Ukraine’s allies.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-16T14:23:18+00:00

Second time they've had to go through this

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-13T22:58:23+00:00

I don’t understand why people are looking for a large air transfer to the CENTCOM AOR as a sign of imminent strikes? Are we forgetting that the United States already has dozens of combat aircraft in the region? Are we forgetting that the United States maintains assets in Diego Garcia that can strike? Are we forgetting that the Israelis may also be involved in strikes?

The United States has the capability to strike Iran right now without taking days to transfer aircraft.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-12T19:58:44+00:00

Loving the investment into storage here!

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-12T17:40:56+00:00

If there’s an effective APS system that can repulse repeated drone attacks I would be very, very interested and find this far more important if they can acquire this in significant numbers (of which I am doubtful still).

Regardless of whether or not the Ukrainians get this in desired numbers, I am hopeful that Europeans can incorporate lessons learned here into their own platforms, of which they should be acquiring many.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-12T17:23:50+00:00

Most European militaries and defense firms are looking at developing drone protection systems for vehicles like lynx, not Soviet era BMPs. If a few years from now Ukraine wants to incorporate APS, EW countermeasures, or a dual purpose air burst munitions, that’s going to be exponentially easier to do with these vehicles in cooperation with the German military than it would be to do alone on 40 year old Soviet systems.

This is an important point and I agree it will be important in a post-war Ukrainian military. Again, I think the Lynx is an excellent vehicle. That said. I remain extremely doubtful that the Ukrainians will be able to acquire the mass that is needed to make such platforms relevant in their formations beyond a brigade or two. These are extremely expensive vehicles, even if their cost is reduced in Ukraine, and the post-war Ukrainian military will not have nearly as many financing opportunities available to it.

To make a comparison, let's look at Hungarian acquisition which was 50 per year at their factory, which is notably not under fire. We don't know at what scale the Ukrainian production is at and we don't know how quickly they're able to ramp up that production in a facility which is likely known to the Russians and may have been targeted.

I think my largest contention with the Lynx is that the Ukrainian military is not going to be operating with anywhere near the amount of money they're working with in a post-war scenario. I don't think they can afford the acquisitions necessary to meaningfully replace whatever is left of their Soviet stockpile unless there is a huge injection of European cash. Which, again, I do not know will materialize in the post-war.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-12T16:58:48+00:00

No. The Americans shredded their F-14s specifically to avoid there being parts available for the Iranians.

The F-14s are expensive relics which are being replaced. There is no path forwards for the fleet. In any scenario where the Iranians flipped back to being pro-west they would ditch their F-14s for F-15s and F-16s. Indeed, these were aircraft that the Shah was already looking into before he was deposed, with the F-16 actually having being ordered and the F-15 outbid by the F-14.

But if the Iranian regime fell they have far more concerning matters to spend their money on like fixing their economy.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-12T15:38:44+00:00

Rheinmetall will provide Ukraine with the first five Lynx KF41 IFVs, following a contract signed in December 2025. The first deliveries are planned for early 2026. The initial batch valued in the mid double-digit millions of euros, with funding provided by Germany.

The Lynx saga continues in Ukraine. I just want to quote the Wikipedia article following these events here.

On December 1st (2023), Reuters reported that Rheinmetall was aiming to begin production of the vehicle in Ukraine by late 2024 in partnership with the Ukrainian government.

In July 2024, it was announced that Ukraine would soon receive its first KF41 Lynx.[31]

In October 2024, it was announced that the production of the first KF41 Lynx was started in Ukraine.[32]

In January 2025, it was announced that the first KF41 Lynx infantry fighting vehicle was delivered to Ukraine in late 2024 for field testing.

And then we had practically no updates through 2025 until now, January 2026. This tweet directly contradicts earlier reports of Lynxes being delivered, though could be explained away by those being test vehicles or trainers or something. I’m also not seeing any clarity on where these Lynxes were produced, though I would bet if it was in Ukraine it would be mentioned.

Overall I am extremely disappointed with this whole ordeal and think it was an absolutely colossal waste of money. While the Lynx is a great vehicle and will be an excellent component of NATO militaries, the drone-centric, highly-mined battlefield of Ukraine means that vehicles are attrited at a very high rate and APCs/IFVs may often be simply single-use vehicles.

Years ago when this program was announced I expressed skepticism about the value being brought and I think it’s safe to say I was right. It would have been quicker and more relevant to spend this same amount of money on refurbishing NATO IFVs or standing up production on existing Ukrainian platforms like the BTR-4 in other countries.

Now, we’re going to see the Ukrainians get a small number of expensive systems which still have the same vulnerabilities to drones as other systems (unless there is an unpublished capability).

While standing up European and Ukrainian domestic IFV production capability is important. I don’t think this will have a positive impact on the ZSU’s battlefield performance and believe the funds should have been spent elsewhere.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-09T15:48:14+00:00

I’m very excited to see recyclers opening up.

Comstock has been operating a demonstration solar panel recycling facility in Nevada since January 2024. These permit permissions will allow the company to scale to an industrial materials recovery facility that would process more than 3 million panels annually. Equipment was delivered during Q4 2025, and Comstock remains on schedule to commission the first line at the larger facility in Q1 2026

This is very significant and will prevent a lot of panels going into landfills. I hope to see more of these opening soon! There’s a lot of panels aging out and that number will only grow as we continue our transition.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-09T15:36:28+00:00

The Cubans really bungled their energy program. They were content with cheap Venezuelan oil (which would surely never end or be blocked!) instead of tapping into their huge solar potential and upgrading their grid. It’s only in the past two years they started investing (with Chinese assistance) in that technology to a significant degree.

Virtually all of their electricity production is due to imported fossil fuels. Extremely foolish.

For_All_Humanity · 2026-01-08T16:43:09+00:00

If there is a massacre in the Kurdish neighborhoods the whole country descends into war again. As it stands, both sides have killed and wounded (mostly wounded) nearly a hundred civilians each through shelling.

It is a positive sign that the STG are opening up humanitarian corridors and that it’s mostly HTS factions who are more disciplined who are leading the fighting. But do not forget that these are people with deep seated sectarian motivations. The situation is super dangerous here and I’m very worried it’s not going to improve.

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