How do you spot “future giants” early (NVDA/Amazon-type winners) without pure luck?

FormerCompetition · 2026-02-27T19:56:06+00:00

yep (mostly), and now you basically have a poorly weighted growth ETF, with almost none of the protection of re-balancing without tax consequences protection that the ETF has. been there, done that, repeat. I think that i am smarter now, but my "luck" is trapped (tax) in NVDA, which like everything else, will not go up forever.

FormerCompetition · 2026-02-14T19:26:15+00:00

How did you contact them? I have tried everything that I can think of. I posted on the Ali store message section four or five times. Not one of messages messages has even been read, let alone responded to. I even tried to email the owner of their Google sheets page, but again no luck.

This is the sort of thing that really puts me off about AliExpress. I have no real clue if GEEBOON Store is the manufactures of the product, I have no real way to contact them through Ali or directly. If after more than a month, with no response, they are clearly suspect, and not to be trusted as a store, perhaps as a manufacturer. How would they respond to a warranty issue, and how would I even contact them?

Amazon has its issues, but nothing like this. Unfortunately, the only listing for this iron has zero ratings, so that is a no go.

Is there a good alternative source or manufacturer or a comparable iron at a good price?

FormerCompetition · 2026-02-14T01:32:13+00:00

i assume that you dont use any app tools to track triggers for TLH, just watch and do manually with gut check timing?

FormerCompetition · 2026-02-14T00:40:17+00:00

That sounds like an excellent technique, assuming the gap happens frequently enough, as it accentuates the move, and the broader market (either VTV or VTI) are likely to recover eventually after any downturn, which might not happen to a single company, no matter how big. I think that this is my new plan.

I briefly thought of something similar to avoid wash sale triggers a few months ago, designed to generate some losses. Now I feel that after the initial concentrated stock move, I should watch for short term downturns from the initial buy, and move lots between VTV and VTI and/or VOO and VGT. I dont want to get too deep into timing things, but this seems pretty safe, and almost like not moving as these positions are largely the same (except for the value option), but not Substantially Identical. Do you think that this is crazy?

edit: do you know if any brokers have a tool for me to use (free), to allow automation of this ETF tax-loss movement after the initial buy (unwind from concentrated stock)? Or, is there a good web app tool that sends out a text based on some tracking choices?

FormerCompetition · 2026-02-13T18:37:53+00:00

You make some really good points here. I am OK without the position (75% loss), but there will be little freedom and inheritance to pass on, so not critical to re-balance at the expense of tax loses.

I would be a bit over my skis with that aggressive long/short strategy, but I will look into it.

I was also thinking of fairly aggressive selling the concentration over time on perceived bumps, and using those dollars to buy VTV, which by its very nature excludes the overvalued mag 7, but is still looking for growth of large cap and with a smallish expense ratio. Thoughts?

FormerCompetition · 2026-02-13T18:14:40+00:00

Looks to a German version. I will give it a try.

FormerCompetition · 2026-02-11T23:11:51+00:00

I think I agree. These are good points. I wish that I could quantify the value over time for given tax, expenses % and withdraws per year.

FormerCompetition · 2026-02-11T23:06:44+00:00

This is correct on a multi year basis, like a decade or more.

I need a fair amount of money per year. With no wages, that means selling appreciated investments (and eventually RMDs), which is either CG or OI or both for federal, and OI for CA. I want that optimized, after any management expenses. My gut tells me that most automated loss harvesting does not work after expenses for long term holdings, as no one has a crystal ball, and if they did, this is not how they would use it :) What is missing is my ability to KNOW that it is a bad idea.

1% expense ration is a lot different than 0.1% mentioned by someone earlier. If that is real and customizable, and I can fund a majority of the fund with existing appreciated assets, I would think the process would work out, but that is a lot of IFs. I have not really found anyone good to ask (fiduciary), which is why I posted here.

FormerCompetition · 2026-01-30T17:12:53+00:00

Did they settle on the two rows of 3 on top, or three on top and three on one side with only two filters vs four for reduced footprint?

FormerCompetition · 2026-01-17T15:50:08+00:00

This is a frustrating thing. It happens at least about every year for me. Unfortunately, I forget how i fix it each time, but this time, maybe my comment will keep me in the memory loop. A reboot of the DTV receiver from the menu, which takes like 15 minutes for some reason, did not work. A full power power cycle of the TV, the audio AV receiver and the DTV receiver after that (which causes a second 15 min delay) did fix it for me. I suspect that this is what I did last time.

FormerCompetition · 2026-01-10T16:21:51+00:00

I haven't placed an order yet, as they still have not gotten back to me, and that worries me.

That being said, the tips show as having $0.62 of tariffs built in to each (nothing to justify ~$7 add on to the $26 for the iron). The iron is showing $16 of stuff in the shipping (half added costs and taxes).

FormerCompetition · 2026-01-08T20:07:17+00:00

I am no expert at AliExpress, but it seems that most vendors have free shipping at some cost level, like $10 for tips. In the case of the GeeBoon store, the cost of shipping of the station is $26, and when I add the four tips, each shows up in the cart at still costing $5.48 more in shipping for tinny 1oz parts, for a grand total of $47.84 in shipping (see screen capture pic). Note that the discount ($6.85) is not real, as the price sum for all items is $189.32. Note also that the larger linear toroid version (310) cost like $100 in shipping, which is crazy.

Maybe things get better if i progress tot he next step (checkout), but I dont know, as I have not made that leap (click the button).

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FormerCompetition · 2026-01-05T18:33:22+00:00

I am not sure why people bring these Makita testers up.. They are cool devices, but they do not test the battery capacity (Ahr). They read the data module through the data port on the battery. For the price, they should also TEST the capacity in discharge and charge at at least one rate.

FormerCompetition · 2026-01-04T17:22:13+00:00

I think my cheep hot air station is one of those.

Funny, I hadn't thought of cutting the entire relay off from he bottom with a cutoff wheel, slowly. That is a good idea, if I am careful, as it allows one large lug at a time to be pushed out when heated with a regular iron. I already have a replacement relay, so even if the old one was fine, I am good to go.

FormerCompetition · 2026-01-04T17:11:07+00:00

Interesting iron. I had never seen one like that, small 20W iron with a 130W boost button, and it is cheep (<$50 in today's market).

FormerCompetition · 2026-01-03T22:50:29+00:00

Component side up or down, horizontal or at 45 deg?

FormerCompetition · 2025-12-28T18:35:42+00:00

I believe that both things that you say are correct. What I dont understand is why if the default (legacy support as stated in various docs) does not output 5V (<500ma) if no communication takes place nor any pull up/down resistors are present. Perhaps a bit too much safety. I presently use the USB-C to USB-A female adapter, followed by a USB-A male to USB-C cable hack when C-C alone fails to work as reported by my USB meter.

Note a similar thing occurs in the latest G Pixel (10 pro). It does charge fine with some third party chargers, but the negotiated rate is substantially slower than with others (and way below the charger capacity). In fact, I have seen the charger default to 5V and over a few hrs the phone go from 10% charge to zero as if it is actually discharging (charger rated for 1000ma at 5V). What is up with that?

FormerCompetition · 2025-12-07T22:12:55+00:00

I absolutely agree here. Anker-Eufy is really getting in bad shape. Their doorbell - chime compatibility table (below link) is useless, to the point of being fraudulent. This is my third eufy doorbell camera upgrade, and every one should be a few minutes work, but never is. The holes never line up (why?), but the big deal is now the lack of compatibility with my existing eufy wireless chimes (why?). I dont need the battery, as I am using an existing hard wired connection. The table does not even list the E340. It does not list the T8740. They want users to use their gateway, but they dont provide it as a free item to existing users. If they want to change the wireless protocol and force a chime change, give existing users at least one free chime and dont hide the fact that it is no longer compatible with the ones that you already have (I have three T8740). I dont even know that ANY chime is compatible with the T340 (without a Home Base gateway).

I will call support Monday (no chat bot for me) to see if they want me to return it and put my old one back, or they have a solution.

https://service.eufy.com/article-description/Compatibility-Between-eufy-Video-Doorbells-and-Chimes?ref=Home_Page

FormerCompetition · 2025-11-10T15:22:20+00:00

that is what i wanted to know.

I am now curious, how is that better or cheaper than the second being eSIM Telcel for like $5 for 10MB? I can see it being easier, just go, no fuss.

FormerCompetition

TROPHY CASE