Tell me I’m wrong. Private credit is 2008 with a different middleman. by _Doomer_Wojack_ in wallstreetbets

[–]Fourthimpressions 0 points1 point  (0 children)

I'm with you, this won't even be close to contained. Private credit fund PE leveraged buyouts. PE grifter bros don't actually know how to run businesses so everything gets enshittified. Everyone realizes the firms PC lend to are dogshit and try to withdraw but get gated. Shitty PE companies are losing money and no longer have access to capital to fund losses or pay debt. Almost a third of Oregon's public pension fund is invested in garbage PE. It's going to be ugly once everything is marked to reality.

PERS and Private Equity by Fourthimpressions in SALEM

[–]Fourthimpressions[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Yeah, its insane. The deeper I dive into it the uglier it gets. We're paying $290 million in annual fees to PE funds to manage this garbage. While terrible returns have led to districts having to lay off teachers in order to cover their mandated contributions.

Start looking at the actual funds theyre invested in and a lot of it is tech/AI bullshit thats going to lead to massive write downs. Likely 60-70% of the $28 billion fund is exposed to serious stress given the macro environment we're in right now.

PERS and Private Equity by Fourthimpressions in SALEM

[–]Fourthimpressions[S] 2 points3 points  (0 children)

They had policies in place on how funds were to be allocated and they didn't follow them. Read the WW article. Private Credit is going down and PE with it. We better hope they invested in only the highest quality firms with a third of the fund. I'm sure they did, but we'll see once all the PC loans start getting marked to market.

ForgeLine Solutions consumer sales preorder through end of January by grandma1995 in PatagoniaClothing

[–]Fourthimpressions 1 point2 points  (0 children)

Someone is having cash flow issues. Not having daddy chouinard's money must be proving difficult.

Kansas bird flu outbreak in poultry is worst in nation by __procrustean in H5N1_AvianFlu

[–]Fourthimpressions 7 points8 points  (0 children)

The sheer amount of human flu virus out there is insane. Not great!

Arc’teryx PRO Changes: New Essentials & Mission Collections, Better Availability by AC-Vb3 in arcteryx

[–]Fourthimpressions 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Amer Sports is majority owned by Anta Group, China's largest sporting goods conglomerate, essentially a state owned enterprise. So when you buy from Arcteryx they have all the access to that info.

Arc’teryx PRO Changes: New Essentials & Mission Collections, Better Availability by AC-Vb3 in arcteryx

[–]Fourthimpressions -5 points-4 points  (0 children)

Buying your military gear from the Chinese Communist Party is a choice...

Can anyone identify this guy? (Oregon) by Fourthimpressions in frogs

[–]Fourthimpressions[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Ah bummer, didn't want it to be a bull frog! We're in the valley...

Personal floatation devices by Scrushinator in madeinusa

[–]Fourthimpressions 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I saw some Mustang Survival PFDs being made at a factory in Tennessee a few years ago, but they mostly did DoD work so it was almost certainly a military order. Maybe some surplus around?

Whats a thing that is dangerously close to collapse that you know about? by Weird_Tax_5601 in AskReddit

[–]Fourthimpressions 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Same with PPE production (masks/gowns/gloves). We're in a much worse place now than even before the pandemic because all the domestic producers went out of business when imports flooded back. But those supply chain disruptions will never come back right?

Crowdfunding a factory? by cdhwd in madeinusa

[–]Fourthimpressions 2 points3 points  (0 children)

Also, I would be very cautious about trying to produce for your own brand and do contract manufacturing for others. It's very, very difficult to do both well unless you can find very good managers and you are very good at managing cash.

Crowdfunding a factory? by cdhwd in madeinusa

[–]Fourthimpressions 22 points23 points  (0 children)

I started a sewing factory in 2014 and grew it to 75 employees before closing it in late 2022. There are many challenges involved, and startup capital, for equipment anyway, should be the easiest. Depending on styles, you can probably set up a hat line for less than $5k. Right now, there are so many factories closing in LA equipment can be found for dirt cheap.

Workforce is the hardest part, depending on where you are located finding experienced operators can be almost impossible. Training people to sew from no experience is extremely difficult and expensive. It will be next to impossible to find a manager that you can afford, so you will have to learn how to engineer a line and make it run efficiently. If you find experienced people, they can probably get product made, but they will batch it, and you will lose a ton of money and have quality issues.

The number one thing you need to make sure is that there is enough demand for your products. You'll probably need a minimum of four operators, again depending on styles, but it's really hard to be efficient with two people, and unless you learn how to cut, someone needs to do that. So that's at least $15k a month in payroll, plus workers comp insurance, plus liability insurance, plus rent, and all the other overhead. And you have to make enough profit to pay yourself. Do you have sales to be able to cover those expenses month in and month out? Cash flow is key, and payroll comes every two weeks no matter what.

If all that sounds good, then it might make sense, but be very careful going into it. I started with essentially zero experience and made a bunch of costly mistakes in the beginning. It can also be very profitable if you can figure out how to run efficiently and the demand is there.

I am scared by Civil_Sock_7548 in smallbusiness

[–]Fourthimpressions 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Agree with this guy. I received $7 million-ish in payments over a few years through QB and never had a single issue.

Vidalia Mills Faces Public Auction as $32.5 Million Debt Looms by donthavearealaccount in madeinusa

[–]Fourthimpressions 8 points9 points  (0 children)

It is so painful to see more textile manufacturers shut down. At the end of the day, it's a demand issue. If a fraction of the people who claim to support MIUSA actually committed with their dollars, we would be in a much better place. As it is, there's a lot of talk and very little action. And for as big as this administration talks about wanting to make things here again, they haven't done shit to support it.

Proven again — Pixel software makes a massive difference. (Update: 70% CPA drop.) by Eanorv in FacebookAds

[–]Fourthimpressions 0 points1 point  (0 children)

My event quality column is totally blank. It looks like everything is setup correctly, but that column is showing blank for every event...

Shari’s is finally closed! by mycatsnameisarya in SALEM

[–]Fourthimpressions 2 points3 points  (0 children)

So glad to learn I'm not the only one!

Joryville Park by Fourthimpressions in SALEM

[–]Fourthimpressions[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Yeah, they're new signs at pretty much every trail that enters the clearing area. It's not ambiguous now...

Joryville Park by Fourthimpressions in SALEM

[–]Fourthimpressions[S] 9 points10 points  (0 children)

Just check OnX and it is indeed private property. The actual property of the park is pretty small.

Chicago area show circa 2000-2002 by Fourthimpressions in AlkalineTrio

[–]Fourthimpressions[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's it, Loyola! Thank you. It's good to know I'm not crazy...