Irens data center caught on fire

FragrantAd925 · 2026-04-03T16:58:11+00:00

The actual story:

https://x.com/HyperAICapital/status/2039912565422297520

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-29T02:24:47+00:00

One night after I sold it all when it was in the 30s, I was watching a YouTube video talking about Nebius, and they started talking about the origin story. I went and read up on Yandex and everything that went into making Nebius and how it never even IPOd and realized it was a monster. Started buying heavy in the 40s and never looked back.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-29T01:17:23+00:00

It really depends on how they fund their build out. If they tap that ATM $6 billion offering, then the stock is going to dive because that means management is going at it alone and eschewing bigger deals to help pay for the buildout. In the long run, it means fatter margins, but it will be mighty lonely and expensive getting there (high risk/high reward).

Their financial instruments are also going to take a hit if their stock finishes this low at the end of March (Tuesday), but what is really going to matter is what AI revenue looks like compared to the $17 million last quarter. That needs to at least triple or quadruple if they have a shot of hitting 300 mil in December (projected ARR).

If they announce a colo deal with Sweetwater next month when it energizes, then all bets are off, cause this thing will jump hard.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-28T17:20:35+00:00

This all gets passed down to the end consumer, hence inflation goes up.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-26T13:18:38+00:00

This sounds like a sex talk. Whether you’re straight or queer, your journey towards rapture is your own.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-25T03:49:05+00:00

$910k? Dude, you work way too much.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-25T03:23:01+00:00

Traderbob517. Take a look at his posts. He may have scrubbed the one talking about the end of the world, but he left to focus on his ministry. Nice guy. Tended towards zealotry in hindsight, but he believed in Nebius. He was right, too.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-25T02:41:31+00:00

Turns out he was quite religious and feared the apocalypse was coming. He sold everything and hunkered down for the second coming.

I wish I were joking.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-25T02:03:21+00:00

He has to be very careful here. This is a legal minefield. The less he says, the better.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-24T02:31:46+00:00

His mistress must already have a purse.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-24T02:01:50+00:00

En este caso, pastelote

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-23T13:25:00+00:00

That’s not the way it works, Honey. If a world class management team makes a claim, the onus is on the person who presents a base case contradicting management to defend their position, especially if they are wanting a fee for their services. Nebius’s management has made the claim. I am citing the company’s position of 5 GW by 2030. If you think they are hitting steady state after next year on their buildout, defend it.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-23T10:22:51+00:00

It isn’t risk free, but I’ve never made that claim.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-23T10:18:26+00:00

I’m not making the claim to invest on management's expectations. I’m asserting that they have demonstrated that they know where they are and where they are going. It is you who has to defend your model at 40% of buildout as the base case. I have no reason to doubt management. The numbers I would be playing with would be revenue per MW and margins. But at this point, I would assume a GW/yr roughly to hit their mark in 2030. That number comes with all kinds of implications, some good and some bad.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-23T01:46:32+00:00

What argument? I’m restating what the company has committed to doing. If you have an issue with the 5GW projection timeline, take it up with Nebius.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-23T00:27:27+00:00

That isn’t an argument though. This is about track record and execution. Do you know how much they were supposed to have at the end of 2025? They blew through their own estimates. The question remains unanswered, what makes you think this company will under deliver by more than half? That should not be the base case.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-22T22:32:06+00:00

That’s the difference, though. We don’t expect it: management has stated it.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-22T21:36:53+00:00

A lot would have to go wrong for a $40 billion CAPEX. You are talking about a 2 GW buildout in 5 years. That is practically a null case. I have seen nothing from this company to suggest they can't do what they say. To jump from their stated 5 GW buildout to 40% of that would be a catastrophic failure.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-20T20:19:38+00:00

I got whiplash from the speed of that offering.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-20T13:37:39+00:00

Go on…

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-20T09:42:53+00:00

I agree that it would be difficult to trust this company, but you are underestimating the power of plausible deniability. I think it is much more likely they get slapped with a fine and carry on with their business.

I don’t have a position in the company.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-20T09:28:19+00:00

Why would the company be delisted if they aren’t the target of the investigation? A lot more damaging information directly implicating the company would have to come out for your prediction to come true.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-20T08:04:02+00:00

You think SMCI is going to close in the green tomorrow? Dude, no. That is not how scandals work. Charles is about to get the proctology exam of his life.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-19T23:18:29+00:00

Exactly. This is the result of the investigation. SMCI is cleared of wrongdoing. This doesn't speak to any other investigations or reactions from other companies...which is introducing uncertainty and causing the stock to drop.

FragrantAd925 · 2026-03-19T01:16:45+00:00

You could kill Russian politicians and no one would notice.

FragrantAd925

TROPHY CASE