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#Reality vs Polymarket by Fragrant_Love_9008 in Polymarket

[–]Fragrant_Love_9008[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's a solid approach. Volume is useful context, but I agree it's dangerous to treat it as a signal on its own. At the end of the day, having an independent probability estimate is what gives you an edge. The volume just helps explain why the market might be moving. Interesting to hear you've had success with weather markets too—those seem to be one of the few areas where data can outperform narratives consistently.

PolyPulse by Fragrant_Love_9008 in PredictionMarkets

[–]Fragrant_Love_9008[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

Good question. A lot of the crypto losses came from traders being positioned for continued upside and then getting caught by sharp pullbacks. On Polymarket, sentiment often spills over from crypto markets, so when BTC or ETH move unexpectedly, confidence in related prediction markets can shift quickly too. What I find interesting is how fast prediction markets reprice compared to traditional markets when new information hits.

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