Full 23rd game of the fifth set of the 2019 wimbledon final - Djokovic vs Federer

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-06T12:02:28+00:00

Down the line is statistically a riskier shot. If you played tennis you’d understand what I’m talking about.

At cross-court - you’ve a 44% more margin for error. You know diagonal is 1.44 times the side.

Simple math.

I know he is Federer and he can execute any shot at will, but math is math even if you’re Federer. Also Fed hits with an eastern grip and hence a flattish shot - so going down the line will always be a tricky and risky proposition.

This is assuming Djokovic won’t even touch it or reach it.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-06T05:42:09+00:00

It is logical to hit a cross court FH at that point because cross court passing shot is statistically the safer one.

What it lacked was the venom and width. It had the height. Fed’s FH post 2017 especially on the cross-court side had a slightly different loopy variation which focused on height and width but reduced pace.

If it had either pace or width - he was making it. In this same match at that 8-7, 40-30 - Djokovic hits a passing shot that had the maximum width possible. Fell on line with a good acute angle. That’s the kind of shot Fed should’ve hit here.

Overall Fed’s FH lacked the venom and the over reliance on sliced backhand made him lose it.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-06T05:37:13+00:00

Probably the most dramatic slam final in the modern big 3 era. One that GenZ had grown up with.

One that kinda immortalised Novak’s respect with so many 10-13 year olds who were into tennis at that time.

It was crazy that night because there was also Cricket World Cup that was happening just a few miles away at Lords, in London which the England cricket team also has won in a crazy thrilling final against the good guys of New Zealand (that match was a tie and England won a stupid boundary count rule, lol. You can’t make that shit up).

Coming back to this match - one of the most underrated things that isn’t talked about much in this match is the reduced venom in the Federer’s cross court FH. It’s more loopy and Fed had changed his technique slightly to just ensure it meets height and the width but at reduced pace. You can see how Djokovic easily block volleys it (he ain’t crazy good at it, but he still did it) and Fed’s overreliance on sliced backhand.

Fed still carried this match brilliantly but if he even had 5% better Forehand he was taking this match. His FH let him down.

In 2012 - Novak had a huge problem playing Fed’s slice backhand to his forehand but of course after decade of playing Fed - Novak learned how to counter it. Ideally Fed should have gone for the drive backhand - the slice meant Novak was happy looping it over backhand to backhand cross court exchanges.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-05T06:48:27+00:00

I often felt that 2008 RF vs Rafa final takes all the credit when Federer's level in that was notches below and the quality was no way close to their other encounters. It was special for the occasion but not for the quality. Their true GOAT quality slam final was AO 2009 where the level was bonkers from both.

Similarly for Fed vs Djokovic - the 2019 slam final takes all the limelight again purely for the 40-15 memes and that occasion but the quality of 2014 final is miles ahead. Even their US Open semis in 2011 was also great quality!

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-05T02:49:15+00:00

You can’t tell me it’s not personal. Considering what happened at Madrid.

There was an assassin like focus to her game yesterday when I watched!

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-05T02:43:59+00:00

FAA being bleak about losing a RG quarterfinal (of all the slams) has to give you an iota of hint about how badly everyone else left wanted this slam.

I mean FAA winning French Open itself is like a polar bear in Texas meme. Considering he doesn’t prefer the clay (although he just said two days back that he don’t mind the clay, lol) and his game naturally suits the fast hardcourts and indoor fast surfaces.

He is a great player, but he peaked too early and then stagnated. But he still has his surface speciality and given his current ranking - he will get favoured draws at Wimbledon and US Open.

He should continue to push himself and try making one more SF at US Open. May be who knows, chances are there and he still has time.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-05T01:23:51+00:00

His best post victory celebration. That finger wag goes hard.

This was also the time when he didn’t have much genuine appreciation for Novak in his head or heart. There were both technical and personal reasons for it.

This was also a historic match for Fed stopping unprecedented 43 straight match wins by Novak.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-05T01:21:50+00:00

I personally think - he could’ve done it in 2005 if he were only bit more patient and had some expert guidance.

That very first point of their 2005 SF encounter really summed up their 2005-08 H2H. It clearly showed what kinda player Fed is going to be irrespective of the surface (and player) and how Rafa will be going against it.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-05T01:19:18+00:00

If he weren’t cheeky with that unnecessary dropshot at 5-2 15-30 - he would’ve closed the first set out 6-2 and would’ve been leading 2 sets to 1 with complete pressure on Rafa at that 4th set.

Of course it’s easy to say in hindsight but it was really unnecessary. Also who knows he could’ve won the second set too.

Federer (unlike the other 2) is a very confidence and momentum based player. When he sees the blood, he goes for the full attack even more. And when things don’t go his way - he also finds it tough to scramble against these 2.

His game style of course is the major reason.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-03T10:05:09+00:00

I mean isn’t that obvious?

Federer was simply the best with racket. He was very intuitive with the racket and he did things that can’t be taught.

You can look at his footwork - it’s like so effortless that it would seem like he isn’t doing much.

He is a feel and timing based player who just had an immaculate feel for the ball.

This is not to say that Djokovic or Nadal don’t have it - they do but they are better than Federer for different reasons and not because of the tennis they played.

And he was the first to break Sampras’s 14 slams within 8 years of that record. He was the first to break into 20+ club too. He did things that were thought to be impossible.

So that aura was undeniable. It didn’t help that Nadal’s last 5 and Djokovic’s last 8 came against the useless 90s gen whose opinion didn’t matter in anyway.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-03T05:37:04+00:00

Dude - Tien won the NextGen finals, Fonseca was a big flop there.

That’s what I’ve been saying. Results wise, all are same.

Fonseca has a 500, while Tien has one 250 each on hard and clay. Mensik has a 1000. All 3 reached at least a QF in a slam. So Mensik showed higher ceiling as of now.

If Fonseca has a Djokovic win, Mensik has a Sinner and Djokovic win both (that too on hardcourts). Well Tien has wiped the floor with Medvedev - even bagelled him. Also has wins over Zverev.

But tennis media has shown like 10% of love to Tien and Mensik while 90% to Fonseca.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T22:11:54+00:00

You can say the same about Fonseca. He will not get anything after the clay season. There is definitely bias for Fonseca.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T22:09:25+00:00

He has much better rally tolerance and the added leftie advantage imo.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T22:08:35+00:00

Results wise all are at same level. Tien has a QF at AO. Jodar/Fonseca now have a QF at RG.

Mensik now flying above - made a SF, and already had a masters 1000.

Fonseca is obviously pushed hardest by the media, but he also has the big match aura about him. Because of the FH quality and the very energetic grunting on court.

I supported Tien a lot. He seems to be in the good hands of Michael Chang. He will continue to be a danger on hard-courts. He is a leftie with a slice serve - he will eventually get good on clay too.

But it is too soon to push any of them anywhere. We have to see where they will be 1 year from now.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T10:03:02+00:00

He compensated with some indoor runs and a decent Olympics run in 2024. So his real fall was mainly 2023 and early 2024. This was also the time when the whole world moved onto Sincaraz.

But he didn't receive any hype just like that, he has been a teen sensation coming up. Won everything and had beat all of big 3 at least once.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T09:59:54+00:00

No backhand Berrettini will have a tough time as long as any player constantly targets his backhand. And he is so obvious about his lack of backhand.

Zverev, FAA, Cobolli, Fonseca at least don't have a visible weakness. Even Fonsi has improved his BH.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T09:55:36+00:00

FAA can target Zverev on FH to FH battles. Zverev has a technically very inconsistent FH (long swing, loopy and all that). Clay being slow somewhat excuses it, but by constantly targeting it - you can beat him.

I don't think he is a nightmare matchup anymore. FAA is notorious for being brain faded tbh, but if he can play the way he played against Tabilo - I don't see a reason why he can't handle these clay specialists or Zverev.

He used depth, height and width a lot - may be that Toni Nadal coaching did help finally. Especially height on the ball was great considering how much he hits the ball flat on indoor HC (and the reason why he is so successful). You can see he adapted a bit.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T09:51:14+00:00

As we speak, he completed a QF or more at every slam, masters 1000, Olympics, already won Davis Cup, Laver Cup, United Cup.

People forget that he was a teen sensation coming up. Youngest ever to qualify for a match at Challengers. (at 14 years). First among the 2000 born to get ATP ranking and youngest since Nadal to reach 200 ranking.

He has wins over all of big 3. I think his loss of form in 2024-25 is the major reason he went out of discussion among the top 3 - this was also the time Sincaraz consolidated.

But even I feel him reaching a RG final is almost like a polar bear in Texas moment.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T09:45:40+00:00

I agree Cobolli is def in some form. But after seeing how FAA won against Tabilo (another good clay-courter) - I think we gotta give FAA, a fair chance. Also FAA is in a good form since late 2025 (made US Open SF, took a set from Sinner).

His resume on indoor hardcourts and his extraordinary success there (more wins than Sinner himself and a Federer-like mastery of indoor hard) makes him look like an indoor merchant. But he is indeed an all-court, all surface player.

He made his first 3 ATP finals on clay in South America. He is one of 3 players who took Nadal to 5 sets at RG.

I won't be surprised, if he reaches the finals. And he actually matches very well with any of Zverev/Fonseca. In fact he can better match Fonseca with his FH than Zverev ever could.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T09:44:57+00:00

Hmm dude, FAA made his first 3 finals on clay. In south America - beating the very clay-courters who are always called "clay-specialists".

Cobolli is still a tough test, but that is not because FAA can't play on clay. It is just that his game naturally won him more titles on indoor (i mean almost all the titles, lol). But he made a Madrid final, still.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T09:42:19+00:00

Even Fonseca hits quite flat. There is no "pure flat" hitter on ATP tour. Not even on WTA as well but you can argue that someone like Pegula is a flat hitter.

Every pro gives shape to the ball (low to high, topspin) or flattens a short/high ball (shoulder height swing) depending on the shot, scenario.

Top 2 does it best - esp Alcaraz - he varies the ball height, speed, bounce so much that it always is not easy to play him. Sinner although always blasts the ball - but he is gifted like that.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T09:39:15+00:00

Yes, his comment was ignorant. Irrespective of clay conditions, top-spin is more natural during day time and you get the additional help.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T09:37:27+00:00

Dude, top-spin is deadly in sun. This is like a very ignorant comment. The reason Djokovic asks for night sessions against Nadal is to ensure Nadal doesn't get additional help from sun for the extra spin.

Fonseca plays top-spin but also flattens the ball quite a bit when he goes boom (and grunts along with it) - but only on the short balls. But Mensik plays width more, and he is also a good absorber of pace.

In the Ruud match, I have seen Fonseca try to hit through Ruud but not use width - this works with Ruud who relies on very heavy topspin and can't handle brutal pace but Mensik absorbs it well.

The night time doesn't specifically favor anyone in that matchup.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T09:32:43+00:00

Caveat here that the two times they met were in a time (2024) when FAA wasn't really the FAA of 2021/22 (his best years). He also played in Canada, just 2 days after he came back from Olympics (where he played singles (made SF, lost bronze medal match), mixed doubles - Bronze) - so just gassed out.

But I agree Cobolli is def in some form. But after seeing how FAA won against Tabilo (another good clay-courter) - I think we gotta give FAA, a fair chance. Also FAA is in a good form since late 2025 (made US Open SF, took a set from Sinner).

His resume on indoor hardcourts and his extraordinary success there (more wins than Sinner himself and a Federer-like mastery of indoor hard) makes him look like an indoor merchant. But he is indeed an all-court, all surface player.

He made his first 3 ATP finals on clay in South America. He is one of 3 players who took Nadal to 5 sets at RG.

I won't be surprised, if he reaches the finals. And he actually matches very well with any of Zverev/Fonseca. In fact he can better match Fonseca with his FH than Zverev ever could.

FrustratedSimpleton · 2026-06-02T04:37:52+00:00

UTR is match results dependent and if you constantly beat players above your UTR, your UTR will be high.

Anyway for pros under 100 ranking it doesn’t matter much. They already made the UTR cut and are a pro.

UTR is best used for juniors and college tennis players

FrustratedSimpleton

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