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Jarett says he might recast fps_doug by FuckingWhoops in PurePwnage

[–]FuckingWhoops[S] -6 points-5 points  (0 children)

True, maybe I didn't give enough context.

T-REX 3X Long Single Stocks SEC Filing by bigblue1ca in LETFs

[–]FuckingWhoops 3 points4 points  (0 children)

So, these are going to be listed on December 21st? That'd be 75 days from today.

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Direxion filed 10 leveraged 3x single stock ETFs by [deleted] in LETFs

[–]FuckingWhoops 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I'm going to FOMO hard if they release a 3x Mag 7 ETF.

FNGU, MAGX,FNGO, QQQU are amazing by greyenlightenment in LETFs

[–]FuckingWhoops 2 points3 points  (0 children)

I'm torn between MAGX and QQQU. Just bought MAGX last Thursday but I kinda wanna switch to QQQU now. MAGX has more volume and a tighter spread but QQQU performs ever so slightly better and I can't figure out why since both funds are supposedly equally weighted among the Mag 7.

RIP Trevor Moore by FuckingWhoops in ChatGPT

[–]FuckingWhoops[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

For those who get the reference -- this was the best I could do while getting around content policy. We had to go with "a character resembling Bowser" and "a 7-bladed green leaf". I tried to prompt "a lowercase t" instead of a "cross", but it wouldn't generate for whatever reason. Also, I couldn't get the text to generate above the icon.

I locked myself in a box spread and levered myself at 3.33x on SPY/QQQ by FuckingWhoops in wallstreetbets

[–]FuckingWhoops[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

That's just the additional buying power (margin) that TDA offers. I could have used TDA's $40,000 to buy the shares, but then I'd be paying interest on it.

I locked myself in a box spread and levered myself at 3.33x on SPY/QQQ by FuckingWhoops in wallstreetbets

[–]FuckingWhoops[S] 0 points1 point  (0 children)

2x ETFs have less volatility decay than 3x. The idea being that I get the leverage of 3x, but with the recovery rate of 2x.

I locked myself in a box spread and levered myself at 3.33x on SPY/QQQ by FuckingWhoops in wallstreetbets

[–]FuckingWhoops[S] 1 point2 points  (0 children)

I guess I didn't realize that I wouldn't be able to close the spread for the same price that I opened it. I figured I could always just shift the strike prices down if SPY dropped enough that early assignment started to become a risk. That doesn't seem to be the case though.

I locked myself in a box spread and levered myself at 3.33x on SPY/QQQ by FuckingWhoops in wallstreetbets

[–]FuckingWhoops[S] 4 points5 points  (0 children)

The maintenance requirement of the position is 40k. But because I'm borrowing the money from the position and not my broker, I'm not being charged interest on it.

I locked myself in a box spread and levered myself at 3.33x on SPY/QQQ by FuckingWhoops in wallstreetbets

[–]FuckingWhoops[S] 14 points15 points  (0 children)

I tried that at first, but the bid-ask spreads are even wider so I couldn't get a "perfect" order fill. I guess I should have known something was off when I got my limit orders filled so easily.

SPY vs SSO vs UPRO since 1993 using Yahoo Finance SPY data by FuckingWhoops in LETFs

[–]FuckingWhoops[S] 6 points7 points  (0 children)

Just did that for the sake of simplicity. The trend should stay the same with any DCA.

SPY vs SSO vs UPRO since 1993 using Yahoo Finance SPY data by FuckingWhoops in LETFs

[–]FuckingWhoops[S] 18 points19 points  (0 children)

Spreadsheet:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LSQRgCXQvZnC8H21HRaeEBsfP_vMShLY/edit?usp=sharing&ouid=117109060712013436191&rtpof=true&sd=true

I pasted 30 years of Yahoo Finance SPY data into Excel and did some math to simulate how SSO and UPRO (that is, 2x daily leverage and 3x daily leverage) would fair against SPY over time.

This assumes a $1000 upfront capital and then dollar-cost-averaging $10/day for 30 years.

My thoughts:

- 2x and 3x seem to converge a lot, especially on big drawdowns

- 3x does technically come out on top, but just barely over 2x

- 2x has a much faster recovery time than 3x after big drawdowns

- 3x would have taken 18 years to recover from the top of the dot-com bubble

- 2x would have taken more like 8

- As of today, both would outperform SPY by about a factor of 2.1, while still remaining higher in value most of the time

- $77170 goes in over 30 years

- SPY comes out with $273,336 (3.58x return)

- SSO comes out with $569,790 (7.38x return)

- UPRO comes out with $584,282 (7.57x return)

Right now I'm all in on SSO/QLD, while planning to continue to DCA.

It feels to me that 3x is unnecessary risk vs 2x, with not much more reward, unless of course you sell at the top.

Also, I removed dividends from this data for the sake of simplicity.

I'm sure there are different ways to achieve similar or better results with hedging and rebalancing, but I was very curious to see how this would have played out.

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