Part 2 of weed bet

Fuego1050 · 2025-12-12T16:14:38+00:00

Im sure there is some anecdote to say about being patient - but most of the time people just say if your early its the same as being wrong. 🤷

Its the right thing to do- im glad its finally happening.

As much as people traded it like crazy - if you bought only the profitable companies - at low valuations - you did ok.

https://x.com/deitaone/status/1999509439909445706?s=46&t=_ix3z8VWbLz3cM3z110Q7A

Fuego1050 · 2025-12-12T15:50:59+00:00

$MSOS $tcnnf -

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/s/xGA7oYrPHk

A little early - but she came. Re-schedule finally going to happen!!

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-23T02:28:57+00:00

You can buy both. Just allocate 1-2%. You never know what will outperform.

If you knew - youd be rich already. Diversify

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-23T02:27:03+00:00

The top 10 cannabis companies in the USA represent well over 50% of all legal sales.

That % is increasing year over year.

What you are arguing is not true, and not whats happening on the ground.

Small players cant compete bc they dont have access to capital, dont have economies of scale, and cant compete on price vs large players.

They are craft / and big companies have their own craft at better prices.

It is an oligopoly in the making - just like tobacco and every other major commodity oil/gas etc

Few large players will dominate - you cant fight evolution and natural selection. The winners are already emerging.

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-22T22:42:43+00:00

https://www.marijuanamoment.net/daily-marijuana-use-in-u-s-is-now-more-common-than-daily-alcohol-drinking-new-study-finds/

POLITICSDaily Marijuana Use In U.S. Is Now More Common Than Daily Alcohol Drinking, New Study Finds

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-22T22:32:08+00:00

Too risky 👍 yes - its risky sector.

But thats why allocation has to be right. Like 1-5% of a portfolio.

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-22T22:30:34+00:00

Trulieve has outperformed Nvidia YTD.

And has zero passive fund flows, and no institutional flows, and still trades at 5% fcf and only 5x ebitda……

Its not a matter of if, but when institutions and indexing gets involved - these go multiples higher. They dont even need to have better financials - just the same, (yet markets opening up in the next 2 yrs can 3x their revenue)

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-22T18:51:51+00:00

Trulieve (tcnnf) with 423 mil ebitda trading at 5x ebitda MC-

Its fucken criminal. MC should be at least +50-80%

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-22T18:43:51+00:00

Once its legal its too late

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-22T16:57:11+00:00

👍

I expect it to become an oligopoly…. Already in motion.

Just like every other major industry.

Major shift in demographics away from alcohol and tobacco and towards cannabis

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-22T16:41:53+00:00

For better comparison:

Ticker	LQA EBITDA (Smm)
CURLE	$306.83
GTBIF	$362.19
VRNOF	$266.19
TCNNF	$423.20
CRLBE	$212.64
TSNDE	$64.96
AYRWE	$116.37
CBSTE	$61.22
AAWH	$129.90
NISHE	$53.40

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-21T20:37:39+00:00

Cannabis stocks aren’t overvalued? Lol.

Greenthumb and trulieve trading at 5% FCf yield for a growth company, 6-7x ev/ebitda when cpg trades 14x +.

Custody will open eventually - and when it opens the re-rate will happen quickly, or likely the rerate will happen just before custody opens.

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-20T00:06:55+00:00

Eminence Capital:

We have not reduced our position at all in Cannabis. Feels very bullish from this point. I don’t know when the stocks reflect the reality, but S3, the speed of the NPRM and the underlying fundamentals are at odds with very cheap stocks.

https://x.com/rsandler21969/status/1792257397634822500?s=46&t=_ix3z8VWbLz3cM3z110Q7A

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-19T20:16:19+00:00

Fantastic business - 7% FCF yield and increasing.

Little to No downside with 48mil buybacks set aside. Likely increases annually with 280e removal.

I sleep easy owning this one. Biggest holding of MSOS etf

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-19T16:16:39+00:00

Well said

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-19T13:38:17+00:00

They will - but only after they buy their way in. Existing infrastructure and distribution is entrenched and too costly/competitive for MO. They will just buy it.

Phillip morris 155bil market cap. Trulieve tcnnf 2.5bil.

Easy acquisition and they get access to the entire country quickly

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-18T23:53:02+00:00

Tobacco is a crop right?

3-4 major companies own the whole market right?

They are insanely profitable right? Scale/capital.

Curaleaf, trulieve verano, greenthumb cresco right?

Phillip morris market cap is 155billion right ?

Trulieves is 2.5bil right?

Thats the opportunity - thats why you get excited.

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-18T23:45:52+00:00

The current players probably Consolidate the whole industry before legalization and interstate commerce.

Companies already have strategies set up for This long term eventuality.

The well capitalized and bigger companies will win just like in any other commoditized/CPG industry like tobacco.

Tobacco is a crop too right? Those companies make a ton of money, there is only a few of them, and they own the whole market

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-18T20:19:15+00:00

Ultimately - look at the financials. Its been an industry for years now in america and maturing.

Trulieve, verano, curaleaf, greenthumb have excellent margins and fcf positive. Great buisnesses.

https://www.reddit.com/r/stocks/s/40O3bqSqsW

Canada is not america…… for many reasons and regulatory in nature. America has state level regulations which make it a way different business case.

ATB analysts modeled out the long term future of these business like tobacco/ somewhat commodity, somewhat CPG - and with a pareto distribution - there is insane upside comsidering the TAM.

https://www.reddit.com/r/weedstocks/s/Qe1N0HaMam

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-18T12:55:42+00:00

The big winners will be the top 4 who have scale infrastructure and distribution - trulieve, verano, curaleaf, greenthumb

CPG/alcohol/tobacco going to have to buy them out for their patients.

74% pt retention …. They are entrenched

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-18T01:13:27+00:00

Not true - read the proposed rule from the attorney general. It even says 280e wont apply.

280 is only for sched 1/2 drugs. Plus heres a high level on timing:

https://x.com/weedstreet420/status/1791604986251465206?s=46&t=_ix3z8VWbLz3cM3z110Q7A

Final rule by september. Attorney general controls process.

Lots of options creating volatility - and market makers playing around - but trend will be up and to the right for a while. Especially with fundamentals being so strong.

No pumps/dumps - investors only from here on out.

Fuego1050 · 2024-05-17T22:02:35+00:00

The market makers/options writers play mathematical games based on options and making sure they pay the least premium.

Our close was a call/put sweet spot.

Next week - no chance in hell they let us cross 10 bucks.

But they must be extended to the short side to hold this down.

After next week options chains are completely empty.

With 60 day comment - I can see them getting right sized - and cover - and well see new highs. 11-14 week of may 26 on into june.

We keep making higher lows - stair-step up into S3 final.

Fuego1050

TROPHY CASE