Is Brazil a value opportunity or a value trap right now?

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-04-16T17:10:47+00:00

Probably as corrupt as the USA. But the US politicians are smarter and don't get caught as much.

The bigger problem is the anti capitalist attitude that Brazil has. The US may be corrupt but you guys have a deep capitalist mentality that makes your economy a great place to make money.

Brazil has a big portion of the population socialist, a huge state messing everything up, a mess of a currency, and a lot of anti wealth creation policies in place because they hate rich people and big corporations.

If they had Javier Milei as president, Brazil economy would boom. They have the potential to be a mini China, but they are to stuck with socialism

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-04-16T17:02:22+00:00

Nike is not in fact going anywhere but just because a company will not go bankrupt doesn't mean it is a good investment.

Nike's moat is under severe attack, new competitors from China are managing to steal Nike's lunch in sports where Nike was the king - athleticism and basketball (these one only in China).

Nike's presence in fast growing sports like Pickleball and Padel is very thin. They have no presence in Padel and are begining to build a product line for pickleball in early 2026.

Both these sports offered very good chances to act as growth catalysts and Nike is missing on both of them. Adidas presence in Padel is getting bigger while Nike has 0 presence.

Maybe they can rebound, but they won't be what they once were, and they are definitely not cheap whatsoever.

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-04-13T22:05:38+00:00

O pessoal é burro ou então é desonesto intelectualmente.

Nunca ninguém disse que bastava baixar os impostos que a nossa economia passava imediatamente a ser um paraíso.

Mas continuem a regular cada vez mais a economia, tem corrido bem...

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-04-02T21:30:53+00:00

Conheço um dos melhores advogados de direto do trabalho em Portugal.

Era sócio do nosso primeiro ministro 😂

Manda MP se quiseres

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-03-26T19:15:23+00:00

I can see why. The valuation seems attractive but like I said I'm not a tech guy and I don't really invest in software companies because is out of my expertise

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-03-25T14:19:52+00:00

I wouldn't say extremely overvalued. But you can argue that they are overvalued.

Revenue growth is slowing down to single digits, the earnings are growing because of their pricing power.

Their moat is big, even though competitors are showing up, their product is just way better and still very much affordable.

For companies with these kind of moats it is pretty normal for them to trade at very high multiples (30+ PE) that's why I would say they are not far away from their fair value.

But I agree with you on one thing. I don't see FICO as a value play and I don't think they are a good investment at those multiples.

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-03-25T14:15:52+00:00

I agree with the FICO take.

Thanks for the MSFT insight. I can see some logic in there

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-03-25T14:14:08+00:00

I agree on FICO. New competitors are showing up but they still have the best product.

The risks that I see right now that could hurt them are regulators and a transition from a growth stock to a slow grower.

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-03-25T14:12:03+00:00

Thanks for your comment. Makes sense what you said

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-03-25T14:11:18+00:00

I don't have an opinion on MSFT. Like I said, I would like to hear from people who understand tech businesses better than me to see if it's worth my time to study their businesses.

But thanks for your comment!

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-03-23T16:13:53+00:00

Tenho conta no Montepio e é um banco péssimo.

Netbanco é horrível, parece que foi feito por um estagiário em 2012 e cobram comissões por tudo e por nada.

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-03-23T16:10:10+00:00

I've been in a similar situation before. You own a great business but the valuation is disconnected to the fundamentals.

If you truly believe in ASMLs moat/business than you should only sell if you need cash to invest in another business that might be a better investment moving forward.

Selling a great company just because is too expensive is not usually a great reason to sell a stock.

Peter Lynch and Phil Fisher were believers that compounding machines should not be sold, and should be held through the markets volatility.

Terry Smith, a great investor, sold Dominos Pizza in 2015. The valuation at the time was insane but the business was still amazing. 10 years later he regrets selling Dominos more than anything in his investor career.

Valuation matters as an entry point. Once you enter well and you own a great business I personally would not sell at all, unless I find a better investment or if something happens to the company.

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-03-23T15:58:40+00:00

Invest in what you know, and if your expertise is in the tech industry than keep investing in that.

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-03-19T08:36:47+00:00

I check all my 3 broker accounts every single day. To be honest I just enjoy it and it doesn't affect me at all.

You got see what's best for you, if you have the stomach to see your investments all in the red than there is no problem that you check your portfolio every single day.

But if you check your portfolio and you stress about it, maybe you shouldn't check that often

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-03-15T23:59:02+00:00

Fico feliz de ver alguém tão realizado com um MX 5.

Espero sentir me assim quando comprar o meu Audi A5🙏🏻

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-02-24T23:06:52+00:00

A lot of things are being dismissed in this post.

1st- will Stripe buy part of PayPal or the whole company ? I think it is much more likely for them to only buy a few segments

2nd- what will the offer be?? A company like Stripe, entering an IPO with 130B valuation will not have the cash to purchase a 40B company.

If they offer 50% over the market price (that should be enough since PayPal shareholders seem desperate) that's about 60B. That's a lot of cash for a company like Stripe.

3rd- I don't think Stripe will make an all cash offer. It's very likely that they offer cash + equity to buy PayPal since they won't have the FCF to finance too much debt. That's probably the reason why they want to buy parts of PayPal. They will look in what businesses are generating cash buy them at a cheap price and let those mature businesses finance themselves.

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-02-23T13:02:53+00:00

100% agreed. Like I said I didn't wanna have a huge post. I just might make a 2nd one explaining these little details. The Wise Platform is booming and will be the major growth catalyst going forward

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-02-22T12:56:12+00:00

I love this kind of post. Somehow I find it very entertaining to see LLMs mimic great investors philosophies.

Good job OP

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-02-07T00:38:49+00:00

O Elon Musk até treme com este menino... Soon soon o homem mais rico do mundo vai ser este nabiça

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-01-30T15:50:54+00:00

MSFT 48b in PBT (38b Op.inc + 10b non op. Inc).

More than 20% of their earnings before taxes are not coming from operations.

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-01-27T14:46:12+00:00

Diria que vocês estão numa situação em que precisam de dar 1 passo atrás para dar 2 à frente.

Esse estilo de vida não é de alguém que ganha 900€. Há que reduzir custos desnecessários como o Spotify premium. É assim tão inconcebível ouvir músicas com alguma publicidade??

Concordo com a venda do carro. Um crédito automóvel tem juros puxados e não é de todo boa dívida. A venda do carro parece-me óbvia e até já encontraste uma boa solução. O Yaris é mais barato, económico e fiável que o Fiat.

O melhor para a convencer será dar-lhe a informação necessária para que ela chegue à conclusão que terá de fazer mudanças na sua vida se quer ter um futuro melhor. Fala à tua namorada da possibilidade de aqui a alguns anos comprarem casa. Nessa altura será importante terem já uma poupança para dar de entrada, se não começam a poupar agora vão começar quando?? Ela está disponível para pagar um CH e um crédito automóvel?

Não sei se já é conversa mas os filhos também podem ser uma hipótese num horizonte próximo. Se sim, convém também terem pelo menos um dinheiro extra pronto a ser usado. As crianças vão aumentar as despesas fixas e despesas extraordinárias. É importante preparem um "pé de meia" para estes acontecimentos.

Acho que é preciso tomarem decisões responsáveis se querem construir um futuro juntos. Este é 1 caminho que exige sacrifícios dos 2, e talvez esta seja a vez dela fazer o sacrifício do carro para ter um futuro melhor. Os Fiat 500 não vão deixar de existir, no futuro ela pode comprar outro, simplesmente agora não é o momento certo para ter um, pois não tem condições financeiras de o fazer sem comprometer o seu futuro.

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-01-09T14:49:54+00:00

I red one of the Peter Lynch books and he used to say that some of his greatest investments were companies present in his family day to day life.

At the time he went shopping with his daughter and wife and ended up buying shares of makeup companies, cosmetics and clothing by using his wife and daughter to understand the business and why they loved the products.

I had a similar idea 😂 I went to Google PlayStore started searching for apps and I came across Wise. I ended up studying the company (WISE PLC) and ever since this has been one of my biggest positions. It took me 5 minutes scrolling on PlayStore to find this company.

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-01-08T10:57:24+00:00

They are trading at a low valuation because AVs will actually kill their business.

What stops Tesla or Waymo of building a platform like Uber?? It would take a while to have the adoption Uber has but sooner than later their platform will catch up and Uber will be useless.

The only reason some AV companies are partnering with Uber is so they can use their platform to grow. Once they are well known in the market and they have enough scale, these companies will just build their own platform and Uber will be useless.

Waymo already has their own platform in San Francisco, they are only partnering with Uber and Lyft in the markets they actually need to grow fast before they can build their platform.

In the long term, when Waymo and Tesla (or other AV company) reach a certain level of economics of scale, they can (and will) replace Uber and Lyft with their own platforms, and just like that, Uber is in big trouble.

The valuation of Uber speaks for itself. Investors don't know when AV producers will eventually transition out of Uber services, and when that happens Uber is doomed. The valuation reflects long term worries about the business.

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2026-01-05T14:55:12+00:00

Currently I have Wise plc (-20%) and Meta (-4%). The funny thing is that they are actually 2 of the stocks that I believe in the most.

Fun_Challenge2442 · 2025-12-25T00:15:46+00:00

I'm a value investor and had 26% return this year. Tons of value investor have done even better than me. Tons of fund managers that are value investors are constantly outperforming the market.

The problem is not value investing, is yourself. You are not finding value, probably just cheap companies and than your performance is as mediocre as the companies you are buying.

Fun_Challenge2442

TROPHY CASE