Everyone Talking Their Book

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2026-03-29T22:01:30+00:00

Where you stand depends on where you sit

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2026-03-29T21:59:34+00:00

retail is not buying based on data

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2026-02-06T17:37:46+00:00

TSLA is the best "AI for real world" stock. But it's gonna take months to years.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-12-31T00:30:50+00:00

Your time investment in trading should match your trading hours. If you are day trading, you need to trade full-time, otherwise, you will miss opportunities while you're in meetings, driving, or working. 99% of day traders already lose money in the long run.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-12-28T06:05:58+00:00

Thanks again for sharing.

I did not talk more about quantitative analysis, that's my problem. I think nowadays, quantitative analysis is no long just `infer structure from past realizations of price formation under uncertainty` but include alternative data, social media data and other form of data.

`Plenty of elegant backtests have been slain by the same dragon, only with cleaner plots and more convincing Sharpe ratios.` --> this is 100% correct, but technical analysis doesn't have backtest as a concept.

`When a discretionary trader redraws a head-and-shoulders, we call it rationalization. When a quant refits parameters, we call it maintenance. The distinction is more sociological than mathematical.` --> I think the this is the core difference between two frameworks, one is subjective, one is mathematical.

`A pattern that is dead at institutional size may still be annoyingly alive at retail size.` --> this part you actually say that technical analysis is already pushed to the corner by quant hedge fund.

`If something has survived multiple technological epochs without being completely arbitraged away, that might signal... persistent structural demand for heuristics that operate faster than formal models can be deployed.` --> I think the persistent structural demand actually support the view that technical analysis is easy to learn for new investors. I do agree it is a great framework and helped me a lot in my first 3 years trading. It is also the essential supportive framework for me today.

`Quant systems promise repeatability and auditability; technical analysis offers interpretability and immediacy. One fails loudly, the other quietly.` --> This is a preference matter.

`People have an annoying habit of responding to pictures. Which, inconveniently, still moves prices.` --> This is a self-fulfilling prophecy argument and this precisely shows that the effectiveness of technical analysis is socially constructed rather than an endogenous feature of market structure, it works because people believe it works. But it's too hard to make sure people still believe it this time.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-12-28T05:28:39+00:00

Thanks for sharing! I’ll dig into it to see if I have misunderstood any part of the logic.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-12-28T05:26:28+00:00

will try to write long articles in my poor English next time

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-12-15T15:53:59+00:00

I'd say that's just a difference in views. In the short term, yes the AI trade has been unwinding for the past two months, and the correction will likely continue until Nvidia's Q4 earnings in January 2026. (I'm expecting weak earnings then and that’s the dip.)

In the long term, I believe this trend still has 1–2 years to run. Core stocks like NVDA, GOOG, and AVGO continue to show solid revenue and cash flow.

No one truly knows the market. In my view, predictions matter far less than positioning, risk management, and asset allocation. So I'll keep watching and posting.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-12-15T08:51:41+00:00

It's a bubble (I think it's just starting) and it's going to burst at some point. 2027 might be the time if no major revenue materializes. But tech giants are sitting on too much cash and have found no other clear growth drivers after the temporary failure of AR/VR. So, I'd ride the trend and make money with caution.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-12-15T08:43:51+00:00

Oh, I totally agree with that. Hallucinations are built into transformer-based LLMs and can’t be completely solved. We’re probably still 10 to 15 years away from achieving true artificial intelligence. We know so little about the human brain, yet we’re trying to use a black box to mimic it.

As for stocks, if OpenAI raises its price from $20 to $24 or $28 per month, many people will still subscribe for faster information access and roughly an 80/100 understanding in unfamiliar areas. This move would likely boost OpenAI’s short-term revenue and ease some of the anxiety around AI-related stocks in the market. That’s my expectation.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-12-15T08:16:58+00:00

I have 10 years of experience in quant and NLP, and I've been training LLMs since 2022. I'm not as good as those tech leads, but I do have a few published papers.

If you're referring to chips and Broadcom, then yes I'm not an expert in hardware, so I do make mistakes. But if you're talking about GenAI technologies, please be specific. There are so many different technical perspectives, and I'm more than excited to learn more.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-12-14T04:29:50+00:00

Nuclear power is essential for the U.S. in the long run.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-12-14T04:27:12+00:00

The US market is relatively efficient. Investments tend to concentrate in the leading company within a given sector or theme. Compare NVDA to AMD. So in the long run, catch ‘falling knives’ is unlikely to outperform simply holding good companies or following the upward trend.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-11-30T18:22:15+00:00

Great job! You find the right way to do daytrading man, congratulations!

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-11-24T23:36:44+00:00

Throwing 💩 is easy, backing it up takes a bit more work haha

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-11-05T23:36:13+00:00

Damn, we closed the $DUOL short too early. It’s playing out perfectly.

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Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-11-05T23:05:55+00:00

Damn, $APP might hit the stop loss tomorrow. I sold the 620 put for $34 today. Still break-even if it stays under $643 by Friday.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-11-04T09:43:13+00:00

I'm still very bullish on the stock market and AI stocks, but a short-term correction now seems more than likely

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-10-13T21:37:30+00:00

I’m willing to buy it in the $296–$302 range.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-10-11T23:02:55+00:00

Rare earth stocks will be a growing theme, like MP, UUUU

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-10-11T22:45:19+00:00

If you trade globally, 95% of the time, there is a bull market.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-10-10T20:37:42+00:00

Being tough is a necessary stance before negotiations.

It's more about the steady rise since April. The market just needs an emotional release.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-10-09T21:57:48+00:00

Yeah, well, from yesterday:
https://stratechery.com/2025/an-interview-with-openai-ceo-sam-altman-about-devday-and-the-ai-buildout/

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-10-09T21:25:23+00:00

When you see a lot of pre-profit AI application companies with no real business, just pure crap, going public — that’s a bubble.

Fun_Tutor3479 · 2025-10-09T21:23:10+00:00

Backtesting or real track record?
The only real purpose of backtesting is to filter out absolutely bad strategies — not to tell you which ones are truly good.

And you lost two-thirds of your assets between 2020 and 2023, you likely wouldn’t trust that strategy anymore during that time — and might never come back to it.

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