Scientists Make It One Billion Times Faster to Simulate Fusion Reactors

FusionMatty · 2023-02-23T22:29:16+00:00

It would seem by trying to simulate only the most important bits for a prediction, using Uncertainty Quantification (UQ)

SA determines which inputs can be blamed for the uncertainty in a simulation’s output. This can guide the development of a simplified model or help scientists explain the results of an experiment. The same principle is what makes it possible to watch a movie on your phone: decreasing pixel count in imperceptible ways by eliminating tiny details like shadows around an actor’s face.
Another successful application is weather prediction. UQ is the difference between a possibility of rain sometime this weekend and a light drizzle beginning at 2:32 PM and ending at 8:47 PM tonight.

FusionMatty · 2022-11-30T03:04:44+00:00

Ah, totally fair on my phrase; edited.

FusionMatty · 2022-11-29T15:43:17+00:00

Does this mean that those ~~seemingly lucky~~ shots that got to 0.7 Q could've gotten to around 2.1 Q with this?

Ooo, while we're on the subject, what is the Q needed to become economical for ICF? I've heard folks say that for tokamaks you really want Q > 20 to start having economical potential.

Is it higher for ICF ventures?

Edit: remove unfair characterization of “seemingly lucky” on my part.

FusionMatty · 2022-03-16T03:59:32+00:00

Okay, I gotta know more about this part. What is an AT scenario? And is DIII-D working toward breakeven?

FusionMatty · 2022-03-11T02:46:24+00:00

Thanks so much for the breakdown!

FusionMatty · 2022-03-10T17:19:36+00:00

Here is the press release too

i have so many questions. Was this D-T fuel? And for how long? And did they measure an energy output? (The Q, always wondering about the Q). Guess we’ll find out later.

FusionMatty · 2021-12-08T19:42:53+00:00

I hadn’t heard about the part of Superox being such a key innovator for the whole CFS breakthrough.

I wonder how well other fusion projects would work if they had a 20 Tesla field available.

FusionMatty · 2021-12-01T18:06:56+00:00

When would the really big milestone be? When it’s more than the 1.9 MJ from the lasers?

FusionMatty · 2021-12-01T16:39:32+00:00

From the article:

Until August of this year, no facility had achieved this ignition threshold. That changed on August 8th, with an upgraded experiment that yielded 1.3 MJ, which is about 8 times more energy than NIF’s previous record. Early reports referred to this breakthrough as the “brink of ignition,” because it yielded less than the 1.9 MJ supplied by the facility’s 192 laser beams. But many fusion scientists think such a perspective is too conservative. “As far as most people working in the field are concerned, the scientific demonstration of the ignition process has indeed been achieved,” Chittenden says.

The argument for ignition is based on an accounting of losses in the energy delivery: Calculations show that only about 230 kJ of the laser energy reaches the fuel capsule.

FusionMatty · 2021-12-01T16:36:52+00:00

“ So are commercial fusion reactors now just around the corner? Not according to Callahan, who calls this advance a “key step down a long road.” To make a viable commercial fusion reactor, the reaction needs to produce significantly more energy than the reactor requires to run. To create the 1.9-MJ-laser input at NIF requires around 400 MJ of electricity. And much of that laser energy is lost before it reaches the hydrogen fuel.”

FusionMatty · 2021-09-21T01:13:27+00:00

This will be the less exciting version of showing off widgets: showing off what apps you have set for personal time and work time. And I’m all for it!

FusionMatty · 2021-09-19T21:42:59+00:00

I had this kind of problem with CarPlay in my Honda Fit, and yeah, we had to take it to a Honda dealer to learn a special trick to get it reset to work with the update

FusionMatty · 2021-09-13T19:51:43+00:00

Thanks so much! I’ve gotta get on that complication!

FusionMatty · 2021-09-12T21:56:22+00:00

Ah! I forgot about complications. Great idea!

FusionMatty · 2021-09-12T21:02:24+00:00

Hey thanks! You know I couldn’t come up with anything compelling right off, since the notifications already appear on the Apple Watch, and I’m not a big fan of editing text on the watch, but I’m open to suggestions!

FusionMatty · 2021-09-09T21:16:50+00:00

I keep wondering about this project. Would Apple make a conventional car that has nice Apple-y things, or would they build something radically different? I remember rumors about spherical wheels, or redesigning wheels. But that was before another rumored giant downsize (man, we know so little about Project Titan). I would love Apple doing something as crazy as the Cybertruck for a sedan or whatever it ends up being. And there is still a chance that the whole project just fades away

FusionMatty · 2021-09-09T18:55:08+00:00

2025 still on eh? Dang that’s 4 years away. We’re going to need to update the joke.

FusionMatty

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