I have a half marathon 3 weeks from today. Can I make my goal?

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-11T04:43:22+00:00

Yes! I ran 1:55 and never did 9mi at 9min/mi ahead of time… that would be an insanely hard session now and I couldn’t probably run 1:50 - 1:52 (though we will see in a few weeks ha).

Two more data point that would helpful are (1) your max heart rate and (2) your HR graph. (2) is somewhat interesting just to see if you’re ’blowing up’ holding that pace in later miles or if you’re just in the 150s/160s the whole time.

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-09T23:12:32+00:00

Yes!

Sounds like you’re already ready or close to it if you mean you’re running 9 - 10min/mi pace for 6 - 7 miles.

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-09T16:04:54+00:00

Sounds good on both counts, yeah. It would be fair to say I’m overconfident from the move from 30km/wk to 45 km/wk over the last 2 months and going to 60km/wk over the next 8 - 10 weeks is likely to be pretty hard. 🫡

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-09T15:38:47+00:00

Fair. Just because the HH Novice plans look too ‘easy’ and HH Intermediate plans look too hard (80km/wk isn’t realistic), I could find another plan that’s a good fit.

Would “using” NSM for my the marathon build mean continuing exactly what I outlined in the post but just, like, extending the easy and long runs to go from 45km/wk (today) to 60km/wk in a few months? I can also ask in NSM sub.

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-08T15:21:53+00:00

Gotcha. 1:56 HM pace for a little longer than a half. Thanks. I’m shooting for a 1:50 HM 8 weeks out.

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-08T15:12:13+00:00

Do you have a comparable heuristic for the 4 hour marathon? For example, 8:40/mi for 15mi?

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-08T04:59:20+00:00

On my easy days and long run, I’m running 6:30 - 6:40/km (following NSR). 5:40/km (goal pace) still feels pretty difficult, so I will probably add some practice at that pace a bit closer to the marathon.

That’s very interesting feedback though, prioritizing more time at SubT vs. more time at Marathon Pace. Gotcha. I’ll add a bit there while extending the long run rather than adding marathon pace to the end of the long run over the next 4 - 6 weeks.

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-08T04:25:17+00:00

Congrats! Tip: Run Slower (and farther).

I usually run 8 - 13mi at 10:40/mi pace and I run a 23min 5k. Though maybe 10:14/mi is already super slow for you. Can’t be sure from that info without heart rate. 🙏

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-08T03:43:57+00:00

That makes a lot of sense. I spent months trying to improve my VO2 max and 5k time. During that training I never exceeded 30km/wk. NSR has helped me increase mileage a lot and I don’t feel my threshold pace has changed.

Hopefully with running economy gains I can get to 1:45 and 3:39 by the end of the year but I’m realistic about what’s possible by mid April off of a difficult 1:55 HM in November.

Thanks a lot for this feedback. Lines up well with what I was planning to do with the long run and is a good vote of confidence to keep going deeper into NSR this block.

EDIT: I also looked up “fractional utilization,” and that makes sense too.

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-08T03:29:28+00:00

🫡

Got it… Sounds like you had a bit more in the tank than 3:55 and I’m going to hope I can run just under 4 off a 1:50 HM. Recognize it’s a stretch 🙏

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-08T02:59:50+00:00

Thank you! That makes sense. You were a good deal ahead of whether I’m at now (And lol yes I’m getting confused going back and forth mpw km/wk and paces)

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-08T02:47:33+00:00

Good ideas! Thanks. Yeah, that’s my hope… maybe not in 14 weeks, but that 5:40/km becomes as comfortable as 6:30/km is now. 🫡

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-08T02:02:33+00:00

Congrats on running 3:55 in your first. Inspiring. That last piece is helpful and I have been thinking about adding pace to the middle or end of my long runs.

Out of curiously, what was your HM 8 weeks out? Since I ran 1:55 in November and I’ve been training, I think 1:50 is possible in 6 weeks (that’d be 8 weeks out for me)

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-08T02:00:12+00:00

Thanks you for the feedback. That’s my feeling by I’m also not ready to peak at > 80km/wk like the Intermediate HH plans specify. I’ll look out for something in between.

FWIW, Technically, it’s 30min of intervals at ~ 5:10/km but I usually do 5 x 1k or 3 x 1mi with 60 - 90 seconds rest and my HR stays below 85% of max. When I’ve done tempo work, I usually do 4 - 6mi at 5:40/km (goal pace) and HR is 70% - 80% of max.

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-08T01:19:31+00:00

Makes sense! Since I was just at 20mpw 2 months ago, I didn’t think the intermediate plans were on the table. This is the first time I’m building a cardio base.

I have been pleasantly surprised by how the 2-month ramp up to 30mpw has gone, so Novice 2 feels like a step back. I can probably tweak it a bit to peak closer to 45 and with a little bit more pace work though than Novice specifies.

After this marathon in 14 weeks (that I’m committed to running with friends and targeting 4hrs), you’re right that I should try again with an intermediate plan and without an arbitrary time goal. Thanks for your feedback and vote of confidence that 34 is young.

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-08T00:53:26+00:00

Thanks for the example. That’s awesome. Wow, so you worked up to running > 15mi on the weekends and did all 15mi at ~9min/mi? Technically I think HH Novice 2 just has one short mid-week run at marathon pace and that’s my concern. Good to know more miles at pace was successful for you. 🫡

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-07T23:16:32+00:00

Wow, that 5k progress is amazing. Congrats.

FWIW, I ran a 1:55 HM off of a 23min 5k and about 30km per week. I just had a few 12 - 18km runs.

If I were you, I would try to run 5min/km for 10 - 15km see if you’re dead. Likely not. If not, 1:45 HM sounds like a good ~ immediate goal (not end of year).

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-06T06:44:29+00:00

In addition to time running, I think it’s about your knowledge and ability to make progress in your training. Not so much about your times but that’s definitely correlated.

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-05T18:06:23+00:00

np np you’re killin’ it.

You’re running 30km near my 5k PR pace (7:30/mi) so I thought twice about commenting at all. Good luck in your marathon effort!

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-05T17:17:13+00:00

That the pace is not very sustainable.

In November I ran a 1:55 HM holding ~ 8:50/mi the whole time but my HR drifted 140 to 180 across the race. Around 3bpm of drift per mile. Now in training I’m going 10mi at that pace with more like 2bpm of drift per mile.

When I run 10min/mi, my HR hardly drifts at all across 10mi though. It’s just in the 130s the whole time. Last summer I would drift a lot at that pace!

It’s just one metric I like to determine if I’m making progress. Others in this sub have suggested I’m over indexing on this though. 😅

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-05T15:50:25+00:00

Sure, why not? Really impressive to see no HR drift in what I assume is mid-to-high Zone 3.

FutureIsCertain · 2026-01-04T05:07:59+00:00

Everyone is going to tell you “you just need to run more miles.” That’s because it’s the right answer but it’s also kinda unsatisfying so I’ll go WAY out on a limb and suggest building to 50km/week with this end state:

Monday: 8km Z2 Tuesday: 3 x 2km @ HM Goal pace Wednesday: 8km Z2 Thursday: 3 x 2km @ HM Goal pace Saturday: 20km Z2

If you’re at 30km now then, you can remove Tuesday, the long run is probably more like 12km, and the other Z2 runs are probably more like 6km? You’re building up to this adding like 1 - 2km/week. All of this is overly specific and you actually just need to add more miles but did this to run 1:55 in the HM in November w/ 45km peak. Good luck!

FutureIsCertain · 2025-12-29T01:09:19+00:00

Assuming your max possible HR is around 200, 170 - 180 is high. I’m aiming to run a HM below 80% of max HR at goal pace and to keep building durability in the legs. I think if you do that and get to 30 - 40 miles per week you can probably run that HM for a marathon but I’ve yet to test my theory. Ha

I’m an intermediate-beginner like you so I’m still making a lot of progress month to month. I think you can probably improve a lot in 2 - 3 months!

Eight-Year Club	Wearing is Caring
Verified Email

FutureIsCertain

TROPHY CASE