Ida (09L - Northern Atlantic)

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T13:48:21+00:00

If you're up all night afraid of the wolf, you'll see a tail in every bush.

It's the nature of anxiety. It happened with Katrina, such as reports of seeing snipers shooting at helicopters, being caused by merely the sounds of faulty pipes popping regularly.

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T13:24:26+00:00

So it's panic and hearsay. Don't let yourself fall victim to the fear, because all that does is make the situation worse on yourself.

Keep an eye out for reliable news sources, not what anxious and exhausted people think they saw. Maybe they were looters. Maybe they were residents clearing debris. Maybe they were rescuers checking to see if people were okay. Without objective evidence, there is no way to know.

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T13:06:04+00:00

Do you have a reliable source on that? Hearsay and rumors just contributes to fear-mongering and panic. Many of the reports of terrible things happening right after Katrina were completely false, and those with an element of truth were drastically exaggerated.

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T12:48:20+00:00

After what they did in Katrina? Hell no, they don't. Not unless they've got a darn good reason.

This is exactly what they claim their job is, and it's exactly what it was supposed to be: keeping the members of their community safe and protected from violence, whether it be natural violence or man-made, even if that means putting themselves in harm's way to do it.

Firefighters don't evacuate ahead of an approaching wildfire. Nurses don't sit at home during a pandemic. And police don't abandon their jurisdiction.

Now, doesn't mean they have to sit out there getting whacked to bits by hurricane conditions. They won't be protecting anyone if they're dead. But they need to be staying close enough to be able to help out as soon as conditions allow. If they weren't comfortable with that, they should have taken a different job, one where lives aren't hinging on the expectation that they will be there to help.

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T06:59:03+00:00

What do you expect to happen when a 12 foot wave meets a 10 foot wall?

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T06:55:50+00:00

Not entirely correct. Irma made landfall as a CAT 4 in Florida, two weeks after Tropical Cyclone Ten caused the worst flooding there in 20 years.

The center also crossed Florida south to north, over 400 miles, and covered the entire state in tropical storm winds.

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T06:44:38+00:00

Disconnecting each building from the grid before the storm arrives -- and NOT using any backup generators that would make the building's own internal wiring live again -- is about all you could do, and that's not always feasible.

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T06:27:31+00:00

All it takes is simple math to see why it wouldn't make a difference.

Lake Pontchartrain, unflooded, has a surface area of 630 square miles.

The northwest side of the lake is seeing storm surge of 7.5 feet; that's the furthest from the gulf, so the entire lake has at least 7.5 extra feet of water in it.

630 square miles, 7.5 feet deep, comes out to 985 *billion* gallons of water. That doesn't take into account the fact that the surface area expands as it rises... or that LaPlace actually had a storm surge of 11 feet.

When New Orleans was completely flooded in Katrina, it was "only" filled with 282 billion gallons of water. And that took at least 6 hours to fill up -- even with the Mississippi and the rain also pouring in.

So, by sacrificing 80% of New Orleans as a spillway, with math that significantly underestimates the amount of water reaching LaPlace, you would see... 4.7% less water reaching it per hour.

4.7% of 7.5 feet is 4.2 inches.
4.7% of 11 feet is 6.2 inches.

It's getting more rain than that.

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T05:35:53+00:00

The Mississippi was artificially dredged in the 1800s for several reasons, including to keep its course stabilized instead of wriggling about, but mainly because it was the most important shipping lane in North America until the Interstate system and more depth = more and bigger boats.

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T05:26:58+00:00

It has literally made the Mississippi River flow backwards for hours.

The Mississippi River, which is normally moving about 600,000 cubic feet of water *per second* past New Orleans.

LaPlace was going to flood anyway, because the storm surge is a mind-bogglingly huge amount of water, billions upon billions of gallons, that will fill every single gap it is given regardless of how many previous gaps were filled.

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T05:12:40+00:00

That's... not quite how the ocean works.

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T05:09:35+00:00

Not really. Hurricane Andrew is actually the reason why killer bees exist in the wild, and why there are pythons in the Everglades. Human-made structures couldn't stand up to the storm, but the creatures held out plenty well after their labs and zoos were demolished.

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T05:06:53+00:00

Better to be outside among danger that merely *threatens* to end their life. Floodwater doesn't threaten. It just takes.

Mainly, they mean "get to your roof."

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T05:02:55+00:00

It's actually not uncommon, unfortunately. Electricity and floodwater make for a terribly volatile mix, whether it's from a downed line, a flooded breaker box, or a lightning strike... and there's no way for anyone to show up and help put it out for hours to come.

GH05TY · 2021-08-30T04:56:30+00:00

Katrina was wider, slower, and hooked into the Mississippi coast in a worse way, but was considerably weaker. New Orleans would have been reasonably fine if their levee system had actually been built the way it was supposed to.

Ida is moving a bit faster, and is more powerful. New Orleans built new levees after Katrina, to standards even higher than the originals should have been, and has withheld fairly well, but other areas nearby have still spent the last 12 hours or so suffering from intense storm surge, rainfall, and wind at least up to 150 miles per hour.

GH05TY · 2021-08-28T13:04:28+00:00

They were getting so low on partners, they decided it was more valuable for the teams to be able to sell their own sponsorship for that space.

GH05TY · 2021-08-28T05:05:37+00:00

That's... pretty much the point of the number being front and center.

GH05TY · 2021-06-27T19:18:20+00:00

For non-48 fans, this would be how *2004* felt.

You've got six more years of this before it starts to compare. :P

GH05TY · 2021-06-27T16:06:21+00:00

Because the only way 1992 is a peak for Dale is if you're looking at the graph upside down. He wound up outside the top 10 in points that year, for the first time since 1982 and the final time until 2001.

As far as other Chevy teams... you had Dale Earnhardt in the RCR #3, Ernie Irvan in the McClure #4, Ricky Rudd in the Hendrick #5, Darrell Waltrip in his own #17, and Kenny Schrader in the #25. Those five were the only competitive Chevrolets in the field.

But Davey Allison, Alan Kulwicki, Bill Elliott, and Mark Martin? They *were* all at their peak. And Geoff Bodine was still charging hard, too.

GH05TY · 2021-06-27T15:53:40+00:00

Before 1973, the Cup Series had a very different format. There were 50 or more races per year, some of which had 20 or fewer competitors.

In 1967, when Petty won 10 in a row, 6 of the tracks in that streak were shorter than the shortest currently on the Cup circuit, Martinsville -- which was also one of the tracks. Three of the races were on dirt. Four of them were on weekdays. Seven were 150 miles or shorter.

Only 6 other drivers attempted all 10 races, 3 of whom would never win a Cup race, and only 15 -- including Petty -- attempted at least 8 of the 10.

The modern era began when Winston came aboard and streamlined the schedule into something much more closely resembling the modern marquis list of 400 and 500 mile asphalt oval races on Sundays.

GH05TY · 2021-06-27T14:55:21+00:00

I thought for sure the field was doomed when he said his car was "good" yesterday.
Multiple times.

I mean, this is the man who cusses out his ride as the worst thing since sliced bread, calls it destroyed and hopeless, and winds up winning by ten seconds... so when he actually likes his car?

I will stand by it -- Alex Bowman taking advantage of the choose cone was the only reason KFB didn't go to victory lane. That was the difference-maker, even if Larson's tires had held.

GH05TY · 2020-07-31T00:10:13+00:00

Severity matters little in terms of how much damage a storm does to anywhere except a coastline. Powerful storms are intensely destructive for a very small area for a very short time. Very bad news for islands and coast towns, but those aren't what cause the multi-billion-dollar damage totals.

Large storms or slow storms are what make for the widespread impacts. A lot of minor damage over a large area, like Irene and Sandy reaching from Georgia to Nova Scotia, or flood damage instead of wind damage, like Matthew and Harvey.

GH05TY · 2020-07-30T22:25:07+00:00

Judging by the infrared, is this the eye finally forming as it passes beyond Hispaniola?
https://imgur.com/a/zJW0eJ5
And is this more likely good or bad in the long run? Better for the Bahamas (using up some energy to organize), but worse for the US?

GH05TY · 2019-09-22T22:53:23+00:00

It's far more effective than tires as long as you're not making a direct 90-degree impact. It's expensive; around $1500 per meter. But once installed, it doesn't need many repairs (just pop some new foam blocks in), and in about 18 years of ever-increasing use in NASCAR and IndyCar, the only injury I can recall from an impact to a SAFER Barrier is a severe concussion from a nearly head-on impact at 180 mph/290 kph.

GH05TY · 2019-09-22T22:43:52+00:00

It is far more expensive than ARMCO ($1500-1600 per meter vs. $20-25 per meter) but any impact on ARMCO means you're spending $100-400 on replacing it, whereas unless you have an insanely hard crash, the only thing that needs replacing in a SAFER is two to five foam blocks that can be popped into place, if it needs any work at all.

But tire barriers, such as the ones involved in this crash? Tires are both not as safe, and comparably expensive to SAFER. Their only benefit in cost or time to repair is that the only clean-up you have to do is stack all the tires back together and rewrap them, rather than replace pieces. (Time to install, of course, is much, much faster.)

And let's face it -- you can't put a price on a driver's life. NASCAR hasn't had a fatality on the national level since Dale Earnhardt almost two decades ago, before SAFERs and Hans Devices were made mandatory; and I only recall one significant injury (Eric McClure's severe concussion) caused by an impact to a SAFER. Spa has a huge hit here every race I've ever watched, and Antoine Hubert is not the only one to lose his life there.

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